EV sales numbers

Discussion in 'General' started by Domenick, Oct 2, 2017.

  1. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    There is some talk about changing our approach a bit, due to all the quarterly reporting changes. For high-interest vehicles, I believe we're going to continue with estimates, but there may be some changes. I think we're still in the discussion phase.
     
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  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Perhaps change your estimate to the lower 10% percentile with a footnote,”Due to quarterly reporting, this is the highest number anyone should use for investing”

    Bob Wilson
     
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  3. Stephen Harris

    Stephen Harris New Member

    Inside EV's article, "Electric Cars, Battery Capacity and Efficiency" evaluates EV efficiency based on miles/kWh. This is the metric that everyone uses, but I believe that it is not the best one because it fails to take into account the vehicle weight.

    For car manufacturers, the batteries are commodities, in that they just supply energy. The difference between the capabilities of different car manufacturers, then, is what they can do with a given amount of energy. Thus, if your car weighs more than the other guy's, but you can go just as far on a Wh, then your drivetrain must be more efficient. (Actually, drag coefficient comes into play at high speeds.) Therefore, I claim that a better figure of merit is Wh/pound-mile--how many Wh does it take to move 1 pound by 1 mile. Here are the results for every EV that I know of selling in the US with EPA mileage statistics plus the BYD e6 that sells in China:

    upload_2019-1-6_16-22-33.png

    What this shows is that if Tesla had built the VW Golf Electric, it would go twice as far as the Golf Electric actually goes. No other vehicle is within 15% of Tesla's efficiency.

    When you take into account that Tesla's cost per Wh is much less than anyone else's, you can conclude that $1 of battery energy takes you 40% or 50% farther in a Tesla 3 than in any other vehicle of the same weight. No wonder they are crushing the competition.
     

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  4. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    I disagree. Wind and rolling resistance are more important than weight. Whr/mile is an excellent metric because that is what you pay for and takes wind and rolling resistance into account. Weight primarily effects acceleration.
     
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  5. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    I was really disappointed at the end of year final sales article. It was devoid of graphs showing various statistics and only had the sales chart plus text.

    The November one was much better in this regard https://insideevs.com/us-plug-in-electric-car-sales-charted-november-2018/

    What happened? Why so simplified? Also in the Plug-In Sales Scorecard the one graph that is there has not been updated since October. Actually I think all the graphs shown in the November roundup should be in the Plug-In Sales write-up and always maintained and updated.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
  6. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Thank you, I see it is up now.
     
  7. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Update USA BEV and PHEV sales as a percentage of all USA sales:
    Big drop from last year, overall market down 3.3% compared to Q1 2018.

    Q1 2019: BEV 1.00%
    Q1 2019 PHEV 0.54%
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  8. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Latest graph with Q1 2019 sales.
    BEVsales_2019-Q1.png
     
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  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Who made that projection?

    I very seriously doubt that PHEV sales will fall to near-zero only 11 years from now. There are lots of people living in rural areas and sparsely settled States where the density of public EV chargers is apt to still be rather low 11 years from now.

     
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  10. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Me. I explained my rational upthread. I envision PHEV to be a stepping stone to BEV sales. I predict that most people who purchase a PHEV at all will buy only one before deciding their next car will be a pure BEV. Rural farms etc. will increasingly adopt their own solar/wind power source to keep their commercially bought power to a minimum. With their larger properties solar is a natural. Once running on solar power, they too will opt for a BEV. So with this pre-conceived attitude, I chose an S curve for BEVs and a Bell curve for PHEVs. Then I mapped the start of these curves as close as I could to existing data from InsideEVs sales tables. I am surprised that the bell curve does not go higher, but I believe it will eventually go to zero.
     
  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well I applaud your efforts, even if I am skeptical about PHEV sales remaining so low, and tapering off so soon.

    To some extent, though, it depends on how fast BEV tech advances. Who knows? Somebody might start making and selling a "magic battery" next year; one that can be recharged at electronic speeds; like a capacitor, doesn't degrade with repeated fast charging; and costs only $25/ kWh. Not likely of course, but as Yogi Berra said:

    “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
    :)
     
  12. Richard Maher

    Richard Maher New Member

    This is what BloombergNEF is predicting.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-16 at 11.43.05.png
     
  13. Yikes. Look how long it will take EVs to overcome ICE- and even when they do- the extended trend shows far too many ICE vehicle sales. Bloomberg's estimates may be realistic- but they are environmentally unsustainable. The question of PHEVs versus BEVs is comparatively inconsequential.

    How incredibly stupid is a global scenario of increasing car sales, devasting climate change, grid locked highways and roads with self driving cars and trucks- all in the name of personal freedom? As far as necessity- just how necessary is it that there be one car per individual or even family? Especially when climate conditions may not even allow you to safely leave your house in a few decades.

    What we are really headed for is a self-limiting economy. We'll stop buying and selling ICE vehicles when we can't- when our economies are devastated and the car by necessity becomes extinct- with us along with it

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
     
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  14. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    BloombergNEF is predicting that 21 years from now, gasmobile sales will still be nearly half of new car sales?

    Nonsense. Their graph doesn't even remotely resemble the classic S-curve of market adoption during a disruptive tech revolution. I think it's safe to predict that the graph by Roy_H, above, is a lot closer overall to what we'll really see as it happens, altho the BloombergNEF projection may be closer to what we'll see regarding the fraction of PHEV sales.

     
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  15. Richard Maher

    Richard Maher New Member

    Its not the number of vehicles that's the issue its the miles travelled. By 2040 the BEV, PHEV to ICE split could be 55/45 but the number of miles travelled could easily be 80/20 or even 90/10.

    To be honest I don't think BNEF is correct either but that's their view.

    BNEF also predict this:-

    If you assume, as an average, that the price of batteries /kWh has fallen 21%YoY since 2010 and extrapolate from there then batteries hit the $100/kWh level that makes BEVs cheaper than ICE by 2020/21. Even if the price only falls by an average of 10% YoY from 2018 then the $100/kWh level is reached by 2023.

    All food for thought.
     

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  16. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Bahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa. I wonder why they think ICE demand will remain once EVs become mainstream?
     
  17. Richard Maher

    Richard Maher New Member

    gooki

    That's a very good question. I suspect the situation will vary from country to country. In some parts of the Far East, where they don't have the same attachment to "legacy" cars, the transition to EVs will, IMO, be far more rapid. They don't have the same nostalgic attachment to ICE vehicles. North America and Europe will likely be different. Also, in the Far East they don’t have the same conspiracy theories claiming that BEV’s are a liberal/progressive ploy to foist wacky climate change theories on law abiding gas guzzling drivers.

    We shall see soon enough.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
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  18. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Europe will transition very fast. High price of petrol, and little personal attachment to the oil industry, more openess to “green” technology etc.

    I agree with your sentiment about the Far East. It’s why China is such an important market for Tesla. Large wealthy population with less brand loyalty to deal with. India will be interesting, but I suspect with Chinas strong push for EVs even that market will be satisfied come 2030.
     
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  19. Richard Maher

    Richard Maher New Member

  20. BC-Doc

    BC-Doc New Member

    I’m not sure if one is available but I would love to see a bar-graph similar to the Bloomberg graph which shows the transition a century ago from horse and buggy to automobile. I believe (hope) we are in a similar transformational period.
     

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