EV sales numbers

For most of the vehicles, it is possible to very closely estimate based on inventory changes that can then be refined further with vehicle registrations where available.

But this takes a LOT more time and manpower. And because it is estimated, readers will choose to believe it only if they want to believe it lol.

The vehicle manufacturers could provide this data easily if they wanted to. They are gathering it already. Each manufacturer is probably choosing to hide this information for their own reasons.

 

Odd though. This is over a number of manufacturers or just one?

 

I think that is easy to figure out just by looking at the list and what is not listed.
Honda continues to list their Clarity versions. Also Audi, Ford, VW.
Most others do not:
BMW, Chrysler, Fiat, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Mini, Porsche, and Volvo.

Question is, why? What do they have to loose or gain by not releasing these figures?
I would suggest that it makes no difference to most people and publications, and we EV enthusiasts are the only ones effected.

Did they just decide it is too much work for publications like InsideEVs? Doesn't sound like much work at all.

Would obscuring the number of PHEVs sold in a brand help or hinder that brand? I would think that if they wanted to promote the PHEVs then releasing the information would be helpful, but if they wanted to discourage PHEV sales (probably because they have lower profit margin) then hiding the figures might imply that they were not popular.

 

If they all decided at the same time to do this, I suspect it is a policy decision not just an urge to cut work. As you say, one can guess at the reasons. Another reason would be to hide how poorly they are doing. Would this fit the facts? I am not personally very interested in the sales of individual models so could be quite wrong.

 

As someone interested in hydrogen cars I was pleased to see the sales numbers of the Mirai and the Clarity FCVs mentioned in the monthly comments. It seems likely that there will be more models before very long, so is there a chance they might be included with the BEV list, or perhaps in a separate one please?

They ARE, after all, EVs, indeed one could argue more so than a hybrid which COULD be run exclusively on petrol if the owner chose to do so.

 

Hi,

I'm new here, could you help me better understand the sales numbers on the EV scorecard and how they differ from the Q1 delivery numbers from Tesla here?
Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries


...And the sales numbers reported here from the Wall Street Journal:
Wall Street Journal Sales Numbers



I'm assuming the differences in S and X numbers between Tesla and InsideEV is just US vs World Wide deliveries? If so, just curious how you determined the US/International breakdown per model? Finally what is going on with the numbers reported by WSJ? Are those numbers just wrong or behind? Their report is dated April 3, 2018, so I'm confused. Any help there would be great! I'm probably not understanding something obvious.


Q1 Sales / Deliveries
From Tesla Report (Worldwide):
11,730 were Model S
10,070 were Model X
8,180 were Model 3

From InsideEV (US Only)
5,300 were Model S
4,500 were Model X
8,180 were Model 3

From Wall Street Journal
7,900 Total Cars
3,850 Light Trucks

 

I believe your total sales for Tesla is wrong. Must add ~1900 for Tesla Roadster 1.

It would be horrible if Tesla made the same mistake and accidentally went over the 200k limit a few days before July 1.

 

Hi Roy, I'm not sure if that is in response to my post, but I'm specifically trying to figure out and understand the differences between the Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries, the Wall Street Journal Sales Numbers and the EV Scorecard from InsideEV

 

Sorry, I should have said that the error I was reporting was from the article
https://insideevs.com/top-6-automakers-200000-federal-tax-credit-limit/
"6 Automakers Closest To Losing The Federal Tax Credit"

It says "1.Tesla – 177,651 (estimated, excluding Tesla Roadster)"

Somehow I didn't notice the exclusion of the Tesla Roadster part before!?
But why should it be excluded?

 

Sorry for the confusion. I don't believe anything WSJ says.

 

Hi, new here but been reading the EV scorecard for a couple of years. I'm confused this month, the Model 3 numbers are very different to what I was expecting, Bloombergs tracker and Elons leaked email seemed to indicate they had gotten to over 2k a week at the beginning of April. Even with the week-long shut down I was expecting more like 6k minimum, even 7 or 8 possibly. Where am I going wrong?

 

Welcome to the forum!

Production for the month was very good for Tesla.

Steven and I independently came to very similar estimates using data from multiple sources.

In March, a late boost in production + a focus on California deliveries meant a really quick turnaround from VIN to production to deliveries of 1-2 weeks.

In April, deliveries were more spread out across the country. Outside of California, from VIN assignment to delivery often takes 3-5 weeks. A VIN is assigned, the vehicle is produced, prepared for shipping, shipped, arrives at a dealer, is prepped, and a pick up time has to be agreed upon with the buyer and Tesla.

VIN assignment and reporting by reservation holders, previous production to delivery timeframes, and estimated delivery dates provided by reservation holders that have been assigned VINs are all major contributors to the numbers.

Unfavorable weather, a mid-month production stoppage, and likely Canadian-bound production all played an additional role (but a much smaller one. )

In other words, the Model 3 estimates are a complex beast!

These Model 3 numbers are not bad. So I hope people don’t misinterpret them. Production is in fact up. Cars are on the way.

I expect a much larger increase in US deliveries next month that reflects the production increase.

 

Service Center! Not dealer. Too much going back and forth on different topics!

 

I see that the confusion/controversy over InsideEVs' estimate of last month's production vs. deliveries for the Model 3 has already been the subject of a few posts above, but I'd like to go into more detail.

InsideEVs News' latest "Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard" estimates Tesla Model 3 deliveries for the past two months thus:

Mar 3820
Apr 3875

Of course there is always some delay between production an delivery, but the rather large discrepancy between various reports estimated Tesla's production, and InsideEVs' estimates for delivery, created a large number of comments to the latest "Sales Scorecard" article.

To quote one comment:

Tech01x

There were 2,040 Model 3’s in transit at the end of Q1. Roughly another 5,200 made before the factory shutdown. While quite a few of these may be on trains and the like for delivery, the 3,875 guess seems quite low. That’s not even the vehicles in transit + 1 week’s of production. Since the shutdown came at the end of the month, there was a lot of time for the vehicles made earlier to make it to delivery. Maybe the last week’s worth was not. So 2,040 + 5,200 – 2,000 = 5,240 is probably closer to correct. This doesn’t even take any of the vehicle production from the last week of the month, of which some of those were also delivered. It is quite possible the actual result is closer to 6,000.

Of course, it is possible some of this production is on its way to Canada.​

And a reply to that comment from InsideEVs' editor in chief:

Steven Loveday

This is true for production. It’s actually about 7,000 last month. But in terms of a 2-4 week delivery window, much less than half of these were delivered, plus the 2,040. So, that puts our delivery estimates on par. We don’t attest to being perfect, but our Tesla delivery estimates have continued to be nearly spot on. We err on the side of caution, as overshooting and misinterpreting data to some degree can be bad and ruin our reputation. Most all other publications that estimate Tesla sales have historically been hugely optimistic, which is great since we all want EV sales to increase. But, we’ve learned that we need to have some reserve and reality needs to kick in. It’s never as good as we want it to be or as good as it should be. In transit vehicles (2,040) plus week one (1,500) puts our estimate actually higher than we published. Originally, based on that data, we were looking at ~3,500-3,600. We’re extremely confident with our heavily researched sales estimates.
​

WadeTyhon has already cited some of the reasons for the wide discrepancy between estimated production and delivery, but I'd like to dive into that more deeply.

Wade, are you saying that "production" merely means assigning a VIN? If so, then that means something rather different than what I thought. I thought the production number meant the number of cars that actually rolled off the end of the production line. But assigning a VIN happens at the start of the process, when a customer converts his reservation to an order. If "production" means assigning a VIN, then the so-called "production" total would include at least some half-finished cars, and would also include any cars which had to be sidelined due to missing parts or a need for adjustments and/or replacement parts due to a failure to pass quality control.

Okay, but the previous month's delivery number was almost exactly the same as last month's. So the number of cars "caught in transit" ought to be about the same... except that you also said:

So that's at least part of the discrepancy.

How long does shipping actually take, from the Fremont plant to the more distant parts of the U.S. and/or Canada? I thought the average shipping time, even if long distance by rail plus some extra days for staging at the delivery center and/or Tesla store, would be less than a month. Perhaps it takes longer than I realize?

I wondered, after reading all those comments to this month's "Sales Scorecard" article, if there was something unusual going on; if perhaps Tesla has started shipping Model 3's overseas (altho that seems unlikely, as I haven't seen even a rumor of that in any IEVs news article), or if there was a growing bottleneck at Tesla delivery centers, as the accelerating pace of arriving Model 3's might possibly overwhelm the staff of those new centers.

However, after reading Wade's comments here, and applying Occam's Razor, it seems more likely that there were just a lot of perfectly normal factors which added up to a surprisingly large number of Model 3's counted as "produced" but either still on the assembly line, or "caught in transit", plus what I assume (or at least hope!) is a small percentage which have been sidelined awaiting parts or QC (Quality Control) adjustments.

* * * * *

If anyone could shed some light on this, I'd appreciate the input.

@WadeTyon: Altho you've already commented on this in a post above, I'd appreciate any response or additional remarks you'd care to make on the subject. And congratulations on becoming an official contributor to the InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard! (...or Report Card, or whatever they are calling it this month... consistency on that is rather lacking. )
-

 

I'd be happy to provide a bit more insight!

VIN assignment is not a direct 1 to 1 with production. But it is a harbinger of sorts.

A VIN isn't assigned immediately once a customer converts his reservation to an order. Often there are several weeks of delay between a customer configuring their vehicle and a VIN actually being assigned. Although this time has been sped up recently due to the production increase.

A VIN assignment usually means that within a few days to a week your vehicle will be produced. (Occasionally it also means that another person couldn't find financing or canceled their order for whatever reason. If their vehicle configuration matches yours, then they will re-assign the VIN to you.)

Sometimes the vehicle is immediately finished, sometimes it spends time in QC. That certainly is a factor considering Musk's recent comments about the limitations of automation and the need to have humans more involved in the process. But at least in my estimates it did not play a major factor.

Importantly, VINs are also not assigned sequentially. Thus far, they are grouped based on features, colors, wheel options, etc. Just because there is some guy out there with VIN #20,000 doesn't mean that 19,999 other VINs have been assigned.

For May, new VINs being reported by reservation holders for delivery in May are looking to be between 15,000-19,000 currently. Many if not all of these were produced in mid-to-late April. Among them are a few VINs in the 20,000 range and a few stragglers that are 9,000 - 15,000. But these are just noise.

If being shipped across the country to the East coast, 3 weeks for shipping and prep would be quite good! But then you also need to schedule a time with the customer to pick up the car within a week. They may be able to pick it up as soon as it's ready or they may delay pickup a few days. For the Midwestern states, in early-to-mid April, potential shipping delays were very likely to occur due to the record cold and snow. For vehicles already at a Service Center, customer pickups would have been delayed. This would also have delayed any future car deliveries.

For other states, shipping can be all over the place. Texas shipping has been taking well over a month in many cases. My wife (who works at a financial institution funding car loans in Texas) said they have had to grant first payment extensions on many Model 3 loans that still have not arrived one month later. April was the first month this occurred for her. I do not know the reason for this, but I imagine it is because Tesla was so focused on California deliveries at the end of March. As a result of this, it could also be that not enough Texas-bound vehicles were available to be shipped economically. So shipping was delayed until enough vehicles were headed this way. This is just speculation on my part, however.

This is absolutely a factor as well, but again it is a much smaller factor. It certainly limits what they can ship to Canada since there are only 8 service centers in the entire country.

In order to keep up with deliveries, many service centers are doubling up on vehicle deliveries. They will have several customers come in at the same time to all get the same "initiation" on the vehicle together rather than a 1-on-1 as had been done with the X and S and early Model 3 deliveries. So at the current level of production, centers are making it work. But it may be an issue as Tesla moves closer to 5,000/week.

Thank you! My first 2 articles were published about a week ago and I have another in the pipeline right now. Looking forward to continuing to help with the Scorecard/Reportcard/Whatever in the future! XD