EV sales numbers

Bravo for using a logarithmic graph! That's really the only way to use a graph to properly analyze exponential growth.

#GeometryGeek

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Hybridcars.com posted their Dashboard sales report: https://www.hybridcars.com/june-2018-hybrid-cars-sales-dashboard/

My four month summary: https://priuschat.com/threads/dashboard-june-2018-summary.197551/

One problem is the quarterly report filed with the SEC which leads to some interesting problems for Hybridcars Dashboard. My solution:

Another excellent Dashboard report by Jeff Cobb's Hybridcars:
https://www.hybridcars.com/june-2018-hybrid-cars-sales-dashboard/

Code:

model         |06/15/18|05/15/18|04/15/18|03/15/18
Model 3       |    5500|    6300|    3800|    3680
Model 3 (adj) |   14289|    8573|    5715

Because Tesla reports Model 3 sales on a quarterly basis, it is hard to understand the monthly production numbers. So I used a subset of a Fibonacci series, a type of exponential set, to model the effects of a learning curve and capital improvements. I used them to adjusted the Model 3 production numbers to make a reasonable guess of what the likely, monthly numbers were:

• 2 - 20% * 28578 ~= 5715 (4/15/2018)
• 3 - 30% * 28578 ~= 8573 (5/15/2018)
• 5 - 50% * 28578 ~= 14289 (6/15/2018)

The "Model 3 (adj)" row is my best guess of Model 3 production. If we take the June14289 / 4 ~= 3572, this still allows the last week of June to have ~5,000 Model 3 produced. Others may guess differently but hopefully showing their work.

From Hybridcar.com:

Code:

Group           |  Total|  %
Total Fuel Cell |    107|  0.01%
Total Diesel    |   8770|  0.57%
Total PHEV      |  10280|  0.67%
Total BEV       |  11932|  0.77%
Total Hybrid    |  31123|  2.02%
                |       |
Total Efficient |  62212|  4.04%
                |       |
Total Auto Sales|1540000|100.00%

Bob Wilson

 

Hey Bob, I'd love to see you extrapolate the curve on the logarithmic graph you posted upstream, to the end of 2019. Of course we can't expect something so chaotic to follow any mathematical model precisely. But your logarithmic graph shows a surprising regularity in growth; one which I haven't seen elsewhere, so that suggests it may be a good method of prediction.

But if you don't want to, no harm no foul; maybe I can take a stab at it myself, altho I'm used to using physical graph paper rather than graphing software, so I'm not sure if there are any good free software tools to use for displaying a logarithmic graph.

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I had gotten MicroSoft Office that includes Excel as a side benefit from my employer. But eventually, MS Excel was not worth it and after retirement, too expensive. So I switched to OpenOffice. Not perfect, OpenOffice has not broken the default values like every version of MicroSoft Office seemed to take great delight.

I switched to a log scale because the range of values meant the slope would became unusable. I could have trimmed the data into sub-sets (i.e., buckets) where the the Y-axis scale would be usable. Just I wanted to see the whole history and the log scale worked fine. But I had considered another approach, two different Y-axis scales.

When the Prius dominated the efficient car market, I used a different scale on the second Y-axis. That might be usable but it could also be confusing.

Bob Wilson

 

Have you considered adding a column titled kWh of battery and kWh used?
If you use the battery size from here
http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EVInfoSheet-20180403.pdf
and use your data of # of vehicles sold in first 6 months
then do a simple # of vehicles Times kWh of battery, I get a very startling pie graph like this, with Tesla using 70% of the batteries in kWh and probably 72-74% by end of July.

 

I would really like to see a chart added to the monthly sales showing PHEV and BEV sales as a percentage of all light duty vehicle sales in the USA.

 

Thanks. August 2018: BEV = 1.81%, PHEV = 0.70%
August 2018 YTD: BEV = 1.02%, PHEV = 0.71%

 

Are worldwide 2018 sales in MONTHLY PLUG-IN SALES SCORECARD
are including or excluding us sales ?

thanks

 

Although I would take the rather obvious assumption that the world does include the USA, you didn't actually answer his question.

 

exactly , I just wonder if this number include the us sales or not.

 

thanks

 

The initial numbers show some September growth in other plug-ins. Not a trend, just a blip for now.

Bob Wilson

 

So can we now definitely say that the TM3 is not stealing sales from the MS or the MX? Or is that still a matter for serious debate? (When I say "serious" I mean "ignoring Tesla basher B.S.")

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Question: are the "EV comparision" numbers (Year, make, model, range, etc) and the sales numbers available via an API or as a flat file data set?

I have a presentation that I give about EV's where I use this data -- I typed it in by hand for this fiddle: https://jsfiddle.net/sunnywiz/pqb35r4o/ but it would be awesome to do bigger and better things with this, such as adding inflation as a factor.

Thanks
Sunny