Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Since we are talking other investments (which is good), I recently re-entered AAPL at 143. Hoping to get a ride to $200. I have always been too soon to sell my winners. Wish me luck :)
    Last time I was in AAPL at $93 (big dip 2 years back), but exited at 137 :) Missed the big ride in the last 2 years.
    Before that was at $99 pre-split back in 2008, when Josb said he has many billions and won't go bankrupt. Sold out at $200!

    And AMZN? Got in at $40 in 2010. Sold out at $60!
    Now, I don't know. Lost in this Wall St casino :(
     
  2. 143 seems rock bottom to me. On that basis seems excellent. The market as I read it is not in for a smooth ride, earnings are down and GDP likely the numbers next quarter are not good at all. So there is that to caution, but nevertheless I personally don't see a break through below that number. I would however no longer be married to apple like many investors become. This is a new apple which will not likely depend so much on buy backs to buoy the price. They are in a bit of trouble. Not cash or loan wise but the models are just not selling like they once did.
    So any big rise I would exit and take profits. Yes few can call a top but you loose the risk of a downturn as well. I would not put a number to that rise. 60 increase on a now 200 stock what are we 30% ahead....what are you greedy? Take a 5 10 or 15 instead and hazard no risk. Where else can you get those returns on a one or two month investment, unless you are a loan shark or work for payday loans? Stop looking for the home run, they are few and far inbetween and largly not worth waiting around for.
    6 more trades of 5% gain and you equal that 30. 5% is really not hard to find at all. Any upswing gives you that in many stocks.
    The industry wants you in general to wait around for that home run. Which is why if you pay attention this is what they sound off about. But it is not the it for making money in the market.
    400 out of 500 will rise 5% in a bull market in a few months time. about 5 will rise 30. Your chances of hitting the five are slim to none. And this is presently no longer a bull market. Yes you regret the miss of a swing that had home run written all over it but you are at the end of the day still counting your money. Which is not a bad place to be.
    CSCO a good solid company appreciated after the crash a bit but pretty much traded sideways for a good five years or so. That is the type of thing you run into you put a number to a stock and wait around. Some times it never comes in. They came around in the end and it appreciated handily but that after figuring in five years of nothing, pushes that 30 down to 6 per year, which is not so handy at all, and if you sold in the five likely you lost money. In retail Kors is the same story and I could venture a hundred more.
    KORS what a joke. KORS had years of solid good earnings everything clicking all the winter sales good, not a pip out of the stock depreciated actually significantly.
    Then suddenly out of the blue the thing was on fire, rapid rises no one expected for really no reason.....
    It was manipulated by large money interest to get some individuals a pay day. I have no doubt in that. And that is the rule in todays market not the exception. Things move for no known reason and do not move on things that should move them. This is notoriously bad the smaller the cap is. Smaller in size the more easy a thing is moved. Think they went private, I no longer follow them nor most of retail. Finding stocks that do what they should as per sales profit and earnings is now the trick. Things being so vastly manipulated.
    Some stocks by size and ownership are more hard to manipulate but that bears study to find them. Apple is one, the only manipulation is by the company which is how it should be. Very hard for anyone to move apple for individual personal gain it is just really way to large with large individual interest of all sorts involved. Big players own apple it protects the small retail investor in a way. NO one can get to cute with it.
    Some people model their investment strategy that way. They follow some big widely known of investors into stocks. It is not so much they like the trades, think they are great traders, but it protects in a way from things getting to cute. Six quarters of excellent earnings margin improvements hand over foot and not a blip on the stock, things like that they are protected against. To the inverse stocks appreciating for really no reason at all poor earning low profits.
    There are always shorts and this and that some movement in stocks but it is kept to a low roar when large investors are about. Otherwise retail investors are at large what is eaten for dinner.
    Any large investor by the sheer volume of their trades can move stocks many percents higher or lower on any given day week or even month. So they can create a short squeeze or a top at will basically. Which protects, like a hammer in the corner against gross overt assaults if things get down and dirty. So they tend to not be played with as others may be. They edge into stocks a little at a time over many months to protect against disruption of the stock by volume traded. But that is not required.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yes I did, and I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to write an extensive reply. You've certainly given me a lot to think about. It's great to read a fresh perspective on things. Perhaps I've developed tunnel vision about why serial Tesla bashers do what they do; maybe I need to do more "thinking outside the box" on that.

     
  4. It works both ways people become obsessed with things. I distinctly remember Dick Bove the premier bank analyst back in the day 08, calling for another buy based on valuation and low stock price for virtually all the banking sector, this a week before the week that way and everything almost came to a standstill, all the banks in real terms bankrupt.
    A short will say well...see that is why we go so far. Both sides to my opinion just go to far, become obsessed with ideas of things as opposed to the things themselves and like as not then things go wrong.
    Some guy here today is sitting on apple with a 10 plus percent gain in a month or so, in a rocky market with retail numbers just came out that speak at the least of no GDP increase the next quarter, and is holding out for a 30% increase....when it comes to money people to my opinion get crazy at times. It is or was up in a down market so there is that, but really is that rational?
    So it is with shorts and longs at times.
     
  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yes, the depths to which the entire investment industry has been corrupted and rigged to favor the very rich and the large financial firms is absolutely shocking, and is a big contributor to why, in the USA, wealth inequality between rich and poor has gotten as bad, or nearly so, as it was during the times of greatest inequality, such as the "industrial tycoon" years of the late 1800s and early 1900s.

    I think there is far more than sufficient proof, beyond any reasonable doubt, that many or most large financial firms engage in such practices as "pumping and dumping", which is one way they manipulate stock prices to generate more money. I can't say "earn" money, because that's not a result of earning it; it's a result of ongoing fraud which is so prevalent and so commonplace that it has become accepted as if its "normal" rather than criminal behavior.

    There are also other ways in which the large financial firms engage in trading practices which are literally impossible for small investors to engage in. One example is "high-frequency trading", which is automated trading that moves literally as fast as computer software can issue automated buy and sell orders, based on the second-to-second rise and fall of stock market price. The speed of such trades is limited only by the speed of electricity flowing through wires, or light through a fiber-optic cable... essentially, the speed of light in a dense medium. Here is how large financial firms cheat using that practice: They place their computer servers in buildings close to the building that has the computer servers which record the orders and transfer the stocks. Being physically close means the light pulses carrying the data doesn't have to flow thru the fiber optic cable as far... shaving off milliseconds that gives them an unbeatable advantage over any possible competitors. The only way to "win" at that game is to find space to rent or buy in a building even closer to the destination servers.

    From The Telegraph: "High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions"

     
  6. It gets worse far worse. Remember back in that day silver dropping 30% or so in one day. Why that how that, Chicago mercantile exchange decided overnight to raise the margin requirements on silver so all the trading by the pros since it is all on margin stopped. Leaving the market with sellers and no buyers. And who knew they were going to do that...any retail investor up on that before the fact.....not on your life.
    A few.
    Rigging libor gold trade itself, some Canadian banks implicated a few years back. What we see news wise mass murder people doing really odd things popular culture filled with all sorts of oddities and this and that speak to one thing empire dissolving. Takes decades for a thing like that to play out. The UK following the loss of India to independence they did not see a rock bottom pound until thirty years later. But the market speaks only of the general environment of things, corruption. This place sad to say is on the way down. China auto numbers tell you, luxury auto sales...it is there not here. They buy the most of those not us. Tesla is working gang busters to get their plant on line to sell there, not so much here. Ford is now not even bothering to field autos here, but certainly will there.
    The market but reflects the on the way down status of things here. It is bound to get ,much much more so, not better. We loose the dollar as global currency of trade and everything here traded internationally becomes about a third more expensive overnight.
    China gold buys the taking of clear sides one group of nations against another, not seen for decades, this is not a pretty picture painted.China is well situated to take our position as global currency of trade status. By design they planned to do that and have accomplished that. Circumstances will provide the actual realization.
    Long term they think long term. It may be ten years out that, but it is inevitable it is coming. We will blame immigration environmentalists or some other ready handy dandy sort for our economic demise.
    One planned and one did not, it will be that. Try to defraud the economy like the banksters did here with no penalty. China taken out and shot every one they would be. WE give them tax breaks. Which they buy their own stocks with which since they are paid in stocks gives them...a big big raise. comical.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Mark Twain called it the ‘the Guilded Age.”

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. I saw this earlier but just now had time to look into it, this is bad bad bad. Coupled with the most defaults on auto loans since 2010 in the big recession, released just a couple of days ago, I am wondering at this point in time...how badly are they cranking the data. None of this speaks to rising wages and full employment. It just makes no sense if one believes that is true..from the AP
    " U.S. retail sales fell in December, posting the biggest drop since September 2009 and delivering more evidence that last year’s holiday sales fizzled unexpectedly. Even e-commerce suffered a big setback."
    I think the market ended up down around 260 or so. No big deal that but can't see any sustained gain from here on out. All the data is bad. Funny how they are trying to spin the retail numbers. First said the data was no good due to the shutdown. Of course that was immediately refuted as the agency that produces it says it was valid and even probably better than most due to this and that.
    Then they I guess tried to blame the fed, interest rates are to high. Last I checked the fed were standing pat and doing nothing bypassing their predicted hikes.....
    It may not, they owe DT a lot. But this could get very ugly very quickly. To many cracks in the dam and no amount of finger plugging will stop the leak.
     
  9. Thought I may add, heard a analyst for canaccord today, which has just issued a much higher price target for tesla who predicts as high as 50% share of EV in the new car market by 2030.
    By my guess oil has been low as tool to hinder the government in Venezuela. If we get our guy in, the price will have to dramatically increase to bail out their economy and prove true in their propaganda, Venezuela was always rich, socialists ruined it. Of course that has never been true, I forget the actual number of times they have been in default on their debts but it is something like 8 in the last hundred and 3 since the 1980's. Public record that and can be found as simply as a Wikipedia check. I favor Nordic socialism which is a different animal than this form of socialism and does not involve a take over of the means of production. So I really have not a dog in that fight.
    Nevertheless people do not realize how on a dime this thing can turn in the auto industry. Prius's were gold when the price of gas was 4 USD or so 2007. You could not give away gas guzzlers like Hummers. Which is why Gm went bankrupt. They were all knocked about with the loss of sales in 07 as they had only gas guzzlers in their line up, when push came to shove and the great recession occurred they could not respond to difficulty and got completely knocked out.
    And the erosion of dollar value which will occur with a lessening of role as currency of global trade/reserve status and coupled with gross growing of the nat debt will appreciate all things traded globally for us here in the US. Oil being one. with time.
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Funnily enough, hijacking this thread to wander off into a political briar patch works for me. It has long since departed from anything but an 'echo chamber' for Tesla bashers.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

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    bwilson4web likes this.
  12. Well the stock price of tesla has little to nothing to do with a claimed accident by a Auto driven car in China. Sorry no, that is of little relevance at all and actually distracts from topic.
    Oil, price availability, one may not agree with my opinion certainly, all are entitled to their own and may state them....is all about the future of EV and tesla. If oil continues to reflect for the next decade realized prices of 2 or so USD per gallon gas the auto industries predictions of penetration 2-5% by EV's will be true. If oil reflects instead due to price 4 USD per gallon gas 30-50% penetration is quite likely and some analysts are versing this second.
    Why are they venturing the second when the industry is versing the first, that must be explored. We must determine the basis for the discrepancy and study the validity of each claim. To suppose only the one thing is real and not the other is not really speaking of nor to the issue which directly relates to tesla future.

    But I guess some just like to show pictures of accidents and make funny comments. I have no problem with that. Is that off topic, I guess it is, but I will not discredit them for that. A entertaining deviance it is.

    This thread I think is pretty clearly about trading tesla stock. I am no engineer far from it. I have no particular qualification that may be stated. Trade stocks...that I have done. My book when I was doing that was typically teens to twenty or so at any one time, often with more 30 or so trades at any month typical. I personally now hold global, other than the US based oil company, and my trades have always been international in that, Chinese and others(though now basically I no longer trade). Why that, the American majors were simply spreading propoganda against climate change and I could not invest in them as such morally.
    Is that a political statement. Not really I research anything I invest in and that is fact. I know that from studying the group.
    It may interfere with anothers politic in opinion but mine is not opinion, they spread propoganda. Now what do I derive from international oil exposure..... a industry wide view of oil. So I may guestimate and offer opinion upon the future. Is that real and fact, that guestimate, not at all. But it is relevant this price of oil to tesla directly.

    Their is political view on things and financial industry view on things. I learned Chinese per capita disposable income was in the double diget range and ours in the low single not from fox news and MSNBC but from financial reports paid for. Is that relevant as well to tesla, yes directly. One media source can not afford to be loose and easy with the facts and motivators and the other can. Simply put money is at stake here real things must be on the table not fake ones.
    So show please how a deviance from tesla stock is a discussion on the price of oil you or anyone may disagree or agree with in content?

    This china thing. I have always had direct investment of very many multiple kinds in China. I did not count them up but 20 or so at least, at times my largest holdings. Tesla's main obstacle now to expansion is getting what.....their Chinese manufacturing plant operational. They are having to ship to sell. And the impact of tariffs in light of this trade war is literally eating them alive, they are enormously expensive. The real of china is directly in opposition to a fox news portrayal of china. To express real as opposed to things of propaganda, that then is off topic?
    So we can discuss as well the price of oil the Chinese economy present and past or we can look at funny pictures of accidents?
    My opinion is certainly we must as well as the funny pictures discuss things which are actually impacting tesla stock. WE may differ in opinion on that certainly but to claim them deviant from pointand another no mention made of....a bit silly that.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  13. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    I hear you. But I have been too soon to exit many times in the past, grossly underestimating the power of market momentum. Here is a tale of few:
    Amazon: Bought 100 shares at $40; exited at $60 in around 2013
    Apple: Got 50 shares at $99 pre-split; exited at $200 pre-split, right after Ipad was launched; thinking it's done
    FNM. FRE, GM, AIG: Got in low. But had to exit near $0!
    Citi group. Bank of America: Got in rock bottom around 2008; exited with doubling. But they were all ten baggers if I held on to them.

    So, I'm thinking, I should hold things little longer. The problem is, if I sell AAPL, where will I put it?

    I've also recently taken a significant position in Ford (F). I think, with the hype around electric cars, Ford has become quite undervalued.
    If it can just maintain its ~7% dividend, and stock stays around 8-9 dollars for years, it's pretty good for me. :)

    BTW, don't underestimate the power of fed officials. They can cut back on "Quantitative tightening" or start printing more money.
     
  14. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Getting back to Tesla investment. Huge sales uptick in Norway after Model 3 launch. Many bears left Tesla for dead in Norway :)
    This is in the whole country, the EV capital of the world folks!
    Teslas sold each day in Norway for the last few days. Notice the BIG surge after Model 3 starts selling?

    0,0,3,5,2,15,27
     
  15. No offense I don't want to appear dismissive, each persons economic situation is their own. I often hold and sell to generate specific loss for tax purposes. So I mention that but only as a general reference really.
    It sounds crazy to me, but I am me not you. I am being honest in that. I checked just on a breeze and find few calling for apple to appreciate that much in the near term. Near term they will suffer any downturn is my thinking. What do you not buy when things are tough.... a new phone has to top the list especially if pretty equal lesser cost item are on the table. I again have not done a work up or anything like that so feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.

    I traded F years ago but that was when Allen M was in charge. I have not had that much trust in management since he left to again invest. He was genius. Geniuses are rare. Agree on the dividend. One can sustain any amount of immediate downturn if a dividend is there. And F I would bet they do succeed and chance of any default is very very slim. GM I would not bet the same. I have not studied F in years, so will take your word on it they are undervalued. I think the entire sector is presenting with a bias of analysis to American rather than global. Of course then US considered it appears in a downtrend. F has some new models in the works which temporarily upon release could really blow them up in appreciation. Those rumors I have heard likely you have as well.

    Apple of course with such a heady gain I would sell on general principal.
    That percent is nothing to sneeze at. Assuming you went in as a trade you have won the game. Sell to early sure, we all do. You are here talking and still involved because you won not lost. Counting money complaining you may have made more. This is not 08. This is no longer even a bull market. Trading is completely different on the market type.
    They, apple, endeavored buy backs significantly. What is the impetus for future buy backs? The tax cuts were that but I think the fed is not going to go the other way, they are actually trying to unwind quantative easing, not add to it. Stop the rate increases planned sure. Will apple appreciate without buy backs as tail winds? And as they now are slightly less profitable will they be doing them....my guess is no.
    Perhaps you know more on that.....
    Hard to read in this present environment but gold continuing to rise despite a strong dollar in the immediate could be saying some things.
    Banks 08. Bringing back memories. Only thing I played on the rebound in banks was Citi. Made some. Traded on the way down day trade mainly, trying to play the drops and rises. About even on that I think. Fun stuff that, on the edge.
    Thanks for bringing back memories. This was my main hobby back in the day. Miss it at times being only very marginally involved now.
    Tesla is a complex bird. A full study would take months of work. Mostly all any who have not done that cannot express valid criticism nor attribution. Which includes certainly me.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  16. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    OMG. Mark Kane jinxed it. Just as he wrote this upbeat article on the uptick in Norway sales, it fell flat again. :) Saturday only 6 Model 3 registered in the whole country with most generous taxpayer subsidies for EVs.
    https://insideevs.com/more-tesla-model-3-norway/
     
  17. Came across amazon having already a fleet they some own and some lease of jets they are using for transport of their things.
    I am certain their buy in to the EV pick up manufacturer is for that purpose to fit into their moving of goods.

    I may mention big upswing yesterday, two stocks did not participate, every single other how many hundred or so did ....KO and.....
    guess who.Still at 170 though.
     
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

  19. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Hi IEV authors:
    Here is another story for Tesla Autopilot and AEB safety. LOL. The Tesla AP and AEB can't see giant standing trees and traffic light poles.
    https://abc7news.com/5143718/
    Crews extinguish Tesla fire following crash into Fremont tree
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2019
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Excellent report:

    The driver of a Tesla Model X SUV survived what appeared to be a high-speed crash this morning in Fremont after smashing head-on into a tree on Paseo Padre Parkway near Thornton Avenue. Fremont Fire Battalion Chief Gary Ashley said the driver was able to free himself from the wreckage. The vehicle caught fire and suffered extensive damage to the front third. No other vehicles were involved.​

    This works for me. I remain curious why you think it has any merit?

    Tesla issued this statement after ABC7 News contacted the company: "We have been in touch with the local authorities to learn the facts of the incident and offer our full cooperation. The damage sustained by the vehicle is indicative of a very high speed collision, which can result in a fire in any type of car, not just electric vehicles. Despite the significant impact, we understand that the driver sustained only minor injuries and has been taken to the hospital for further evaluation. We are glad that he is safe."

    Bob Wilson
     
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