Report claims Model Y production start targets 2019

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by Domenick, Apr 12, 2018.

  1. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    A report in Reuters claims that Tesla Model Y production could start as early as November of 2019. It also says that production will happen at the Fremont factory.

    I would take this with a teaspoon or two of salt, personally.

    If true, then I would look at November '19 in much the same way as when that Musk asked suppliers to prepare for an extra early production start date, to try to ensure that the entire chain would be ready for the "actual" start date.

    Though it is supposed to be built on the Model 3 platform, saving some amount of development time, this date sounds too soon for a number of reasons. One, less important reason, we haven't seen a design yet. We don't even know if they've gone pencils down on one. Not sure how much time it takes between finalized design and the creation and installation of tooling, but I know it's not quick.

    The other red flag is Fremont factory. I guess it's possible that they could find some small amount of capacity in the plant to produce Model Y, but Musk said he's targeting 1 million units a year, so this would require a different facility. Tesla could possibly buy an existing plant, but in any case, during the 2018 Q1 financials call, Musk said they may begin to make investments in capital expenditure toward the Model Y program before the end of 2018. These may involve siting of a new factory, but Musk said that they will wait three to six months before announcing a production location and details associated with that.

    Not sure how you site a factory, build/renovate, set up a new production line, paint shop, etc, and get production started within 12 months. I think summer of 2020 is a lot more realistic, but I stand waiting to be corrected.
     
  2. Tesla stories drive clicks.
     
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  3. jim

    jim Active Member

  4. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Here's is a large version of the teaser image they showed. Musk said at the shareholders meeting last night that they hope to start production of the Model Y in early 2020.


    [​IMG]
     
  5. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Model Y design approved for production.

    I still stand by my expectation that Model Y will begin to ship with 6 months of public revel.
     
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  6. jim

    jim Active Member

    It's a body change on the model 3. Pretty simple and standard now that model 3 is hitting production. I also believe late 2019
     
  7. chris5168

    chris5168 Member

    Bouncing back to this, I still agree Model 3 and Model Y will share same production line similar to what VAG or any other company does with their wagons, convertibles etc. This will allow Model Y to deliver with limited availability in late 2019 Q3 or sooner.

    Any loss of Model 3 production in Fremont will be replaced by Shanghai Gigafactory 3. Truck and Semi will start production in Q1 2020 at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada.

    What are your thoughts?
     
  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    There have been reports that Tesla was making plans to install full automobile assembly lines at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, because there literally isn't any more room at the Fremont assembly plant. Recently, Tesla confirmed that indeed it was seriously considering that plan.

    I don't see that anything has changed, so I seriously doubt the rumor that they'll start producing the Model Y at Fremont. Tesla is already so constrained for space there that they are doing some assembly under tents in the parking lot; just how much evidence do we need that the plant is bursting at the seams?

    Now, a caveat here: I note that Nix has repeatedly stated, in comments to IEVs news articles, that Tesla is doing a major expansion at the Fremont plant, which should give them lots more floor space. Nix is very rarely wrong.

    But if Tesla was planning on installing Model Y production lines in the new expansion at Fremont, then why would they be talking about serious plans to install Model Y production lines at Gigafactory 1?

    I just don't buy it. Not saying it's impossible, but I don't think Occam's Razor shaves in the direction of Tesla building the Model Y at Fremont. Especially not with domestic Model 3 demand increasing sharply again, following Tesla recently making the Standard Range and Standard Range Plus trim levels of the Model 3 available for purchase.

     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Not in 2019. Tesla won't even be installing major parts of the Shanghai assembly line until March 2020. Any Model 3's produced in Shanghai this year will almost certainly be largely hand-assembled, using many parts and assemblies -- including the drive units -- shipped from California.

    Quoting from the IEVs News article "Tesla Gigafactory 3 Stamping, Body, Paint & Assembly Complete By September":

    Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai is planned to complete the construction of stamping, bodywork, painting and assembly workshops in September 2019, according to an official document released by local ecology and environment authority.

    ...Aside from the four major workshops, the seat production area, the powertrain workshop and the electric motor workshop are planned to be finished in March next year.​

    It's at least possible that we will see assembled Tesla cars shipped from China to the U.S. and/or Europe in 2020, altho unlikely, since Elon has said that all production from the Shanghai Gigafactory will be sold in China and other Asian markets.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  10. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    If they do model y assembly at GF1, then my assumption is Tesla are very confident about automating the rest of the line.

    If successful, Tesla may move model 3 to GF1, and then use Fremont for the low volume vehiceve. S, X, Semi, R2.
     
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  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I can see why Tesla might want to relegate the Fremont assembly plant to a much lower production, given the higher cost of labor in California, the ongoing efforts and agitprop by the UAW in trying to "organize" the shop, and the higher California taxes and more stringent environmental regulations.

    However, Tesla seems to be signalling rather strongly that it intends to expand its California operations, since it recently opened a large distribution center in Lathrop, CA (about 20 miles from the Tesla Fremont plant, according to Google Maps); and (at least according to Nix, who is nearly always right) doing a major expansion at the Fremont assembly plant.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  12. chris5168

    chris5168 Member

    Thanks Pushmi-Pullyu and gooki,

    Inherently there will come a time for waning demand for domestic Model 3 along with the already mentioned Hayward warehouse coming on-line with on-time/real-time parts supply that adding Y could keep the production steady. We shall see.

    G1 could then produce updated Model S and X, plus Semi once that time comes. Fremont could potentially have two production lines just for the truck (commercial and personal) in the open production lines.

    I am listening and do understand Tesla has stated G1 for Y, just have an appreciation for the added dialogue. Thanks.
     
  13. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    The reason why I feel only Y and 3 will be produced at gf1 is because they want to build a template factory that they can export to China and Europe and scale rapidly.
     
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  14. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Either way it's exciting times.
     
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  15. chris5168

    chris5168 Member

    2020 | Must be G1 903B260A-388C-46AA-926E-6C01D132BEDE.png
     
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Hmmm, I coulda sworn I heard Elon say during the Reveal that the Model Y would be shipped/sold starting in 2021, but that chart says "fall 2020". But then, I was in and out of the room, getting my supper, so perhaps I only caught the last of what he said, and missed the references to 2020.

    Well, we will see. Personally I don't at all believe we will see even a single production Model Y this year. I have no hesitation saying that won't happen until 2021. If Tesla can't install a full production line in Shanghai this year, when all they have to do is duplicate the existing Model 3 lines, then how can they possibly get a Model Y line up and running at Gigafactory 1, when it's a new model and last I read, Tesla hadn't even started installing automobile assembly lines there?

     
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  17. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    He was saying the Standard Range Model Y would ship in 2021.
     
  18. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    *SIGH* I had a brain jam there, or if you prefer, a "senior moment". I got mixed up on what year it is. As Muttley (from "Wacky Races") would say: "Sassafrassarassum!"

    Yeah, okay, we may well see the Model Y in production late 2020... which is next year, not this year! That would give about one-and-a-half years to install Model Y production lines at Gigafactory 1, and get them fine-tuned for mass production. That's a timeframe that is at least possible in the real world, altho experience and prudence suggest the possibility, or even likelihood, of some delays which will push the start date forward a few weeks or months.

    Ignore previous telegram.
    ;)
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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  19. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Time and Time again,Tesla has shown the ability to surprise. I would only take this as indicative. If market changes, Tesla will accelerate or decelerate these plans. Model 3 base was not supposed to come out for a few more months and it was announced. As we know, the market is fickle.
     

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