Q4 production numbers

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Jan 2, 2019.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Source: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/n...le-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000

    PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In Q4, we produced and delivered at the rate of nearly 1,000 vehicles per day, setting new company records for both production and deliveries.

    Production in Q4 grew to 86,555 vehicles, 8% more than our prior all-time high in Q3. This included:

    • 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with our guidance and 15% more than Q3.
    • 25,161 Model S and X vehicles, consistent with our long-term run rate of approximately 100,000 per year.
    Q4 deliveries grew to 90,700 vehicles, which was 8% more than our prior all time-high in Q3. This included 63,150 Model 3 (13% growth over Q3), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.

    In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.

    Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

    There remain significant opportunities to continue to grow Model 3 sales by expanding to international markets, introducing lower-priced variants and offering leasing. International deliveries in Europe and China will start in February 2019. Expansion of Model 3 sales to other markets, including with a right-hand drive variant, will occur later in 2019.

    1,010 Model 3 vehicles and 1,897 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q4, and will be delivered in early Q1 2019. Our inventory levels remain the smallest in the automotive industry, and we were able to reduce vehicles in transit to customers by significantly improving our logistics system in North America.

    Moving beyond the success of Q4, we are taking steps to partially absorb the reduction of the federal EV tax credit (which, as of January 1st, dropped from $7,500 to $3,750). Starting today, we are reducing the price of Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles in the U.S. by $2,000. Customers can apply to receive the $3,750 federal tax credit for new deliveries starting on January 1, 2019, and may also be eligible for several state and local electric vehicle and utility incentives, which range up to $4,000. Combined with the reduced costs of maintenance and of charging a Tesla versus paying for gas at the pump – which can result in up to $100 per month or more in savings – this means our vehicles are even more affordable than similarly priced gasoline vehicles.

    Tesla’s achievements in 2018 likely represent the biggest single-year growth in the history of the automotive industry. We started the year with a delivery run rate of about 120,000 vehicles per year and ended it at more than 350,000 vehicles per year – an increase of almost 3X. As a result, we’re starting to make a tangible impact on accelerating the world to sustainable energy. Additionally, 2018 was the first time in decades that an American car – the Model 3 – was the best-selling premium vehicle in the U.S. for the full year, with U.S. sales of Model 3 roughly double those of the runner up.

    We want to thank our customers, suppliers, investors, and especially our employees, who worked so hard to accomplish this.

    I'm completely satisfied. One thing we won't see it how much profit was made on these cars until the Q4 report. Too many Testa-skeptics don't realize how much progress they are making in reducing the cost to make each car.

    Bob Wilson
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Back of the envelope analysis pending the Q4 financials:
    • 4,145 left over from Q3 = 90,700 delivered - 86,555 produced
    • 2,907 left over from Q4 = 1,010 Model 3 + 1,897 Model S/X
    • 30% reduction in left over inventory = (4,145 - 2,907) / 4,145 :: improved delivery
    • $178,924,000 = (86,555 + 2,907) * $2,000 :: potential revenue loss, constant production
      • expect some increase in units due to lower price (why people hold SALEs)
      • unknown productivity improvements (remember the Musk factory walk)
    • 87,500 expected quarterly production/sales = 350,000 / 4
    So using Q3 gross revenues and sales:
    • $8,623 / car = ($3,357,681 k - $2,666,654 k) / 80,142
    • $7.8 B Gross revenue, Q4 2018 = $8,623 * 90,700 :: expected revenue Q4 2018
    • $6,623 = $8,623 - $2,000 :: expected revenue from each Tesla Q1 2019
    • ~$5.8 B Gross revenue, Q1 2019 = $6,623 * 87,500 :: projected Tesla car revenue
    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019

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