Even writers from Detroit seem to like the I-Pace

When you mix data together from different methods of capture, and sources, the accuracy goes out the window, and becomes very unscientific. I think its better to compare data from one source for all vehicles, and then real world non scientific data should be in a separate column in my opinion. IONIQ by my understanding is the most "fuel" sipper sedan on the market. In your comparison, you used specific sources of data to provide a narrative, mixing and matching data methods is never going to replace scientific testing methods. BTW, in your example the Tesla X is sure a "fuel" hog... Which matches Bjorn Nylands unscientific data.

 

Wow, and you know what... I just discovered that my 8000lb GMC 2500HD pickup does not get as good of fuel economy as a Prius... Shoot, I need to get the word out, and let people know about my latest discovery, GMC is going to lose all their awards and trophies as their vehicle is not as efficient as a Prius, I mean both have 4 wheels and a steering wheel so they should be the same? right? Man, that GMC engineering is really lacking...

OMG, I just made another discovery... My Kenworth T-800's do not get as good of fuel economy as my pickup, or a prius... they do have 14 wheels, and a steering wheel, so I guess we better cut Kenworth some slack... No more ribbons for GMC or Kenworth... ~

 

Your analysis comes from the standpoint of Tesla's business plan. Jaguar has a completely different business plan for the I-Pace. Jaguar shared the development and engineering of the chassis with Magna which greatly reduced their "sunk cost", they also got a program investment from Waymo which basically de-risked the program by 50%. Jaguar buys the complete battery pack from LG, for a fixed price. They also have a fixed price contract with Magna for their part of the program. I would say Jaguar has an exact cost per unit in hand now. If Magna struggles to build the I-pace it will be a cost to their bottom line, likewise LG with the battery packs. Jaguar's cost risk is all in distribution, sales, service, and warranty. I do not know the internals of Jaguars accounting and how much sunk cost of the I-pace development will be put towards the I-Pace, and how much will be spread to the 2 other products going through development right now that will use the chassis, and drive units from the I-Pace. Now, there are two kinds of profit in the auto business, there is gross profit, which is basically the difference between the cost of the parts and labor to build the car, and the wholesale price Jaguar sells them to the dealer for. In this area I think Jaguar will see margin from #001 that rolls off the line, as you remember they have fixed cost bids from LG and Magna. Initially I think LG, and Magna will take a beating, until they get production up to a profit sustaining rate for them. Again, I have no idea what that profitable production rate is. Now onto the net profit, or program cash flow positive... If Jaguar is able to distribute, sell and service the I-Pace on the budgets they have set, they will get cash flow positive after paying for their initial marketing efforts, and dealer/distributer training investments. I would guess this will take 2-5K units, at that point the program can start paying back sunk cost, which I believe for Jaguar was somewhere in the neighborhood of $300M after the $200M Waymo put in, again not sure how much of that cost they will push to other projects, as that is really an internal accounting question.


For right now Jaguar has more orders then they can deal with and it seems like most people are taking the HSE and First Edition models (higher price and margin), as there is already a production constraint on the "signature series headlights" so they have reshuffled the production schedule, moving the HSE and First Edition deliveries back 2 weeks, while pulling ahead the base model orders with the lesser detailed headlights. This change just happened on July 4th, so fresh off the presses. Jaguar emailed all the people with orders, and gave an explanation, and what it means schedule wise. I have to say, Jaguar communication is the best I have seen in the car industry, and this is not the first car I have custom ordered. I think when Jaguar set up the I-Pace program 4 years ago, they did not expect the overwhelmingly positive response they have gotten, which really means the increased order volume, and the higher take rate then expected on the high end models is going to turn their bottom line black even sooner then they expected. Also for Magna, because of the recognition they received on the I-Pace program they have now signed a HUGE BEV contract with BAIC in China... Its really a win- win for all involved.

Now, when people tell me a car has to be high production to make a profit, I first chuckle, and look to Bowling Green Kentucky where GM makes the Corvette, in its own factory, and with its own private track, and in volumes of around 3 K per month. The Corvette is very high margin for GM, even though it has to pay for a whole factory, and an mostly independent engineering team. How about the Mercedes G wagon, that is made in even smaller quantities (again by Magna) and is another highly profitable low volume program.

 

Bob, I have a hard time seeing how either of the pictures you posted show a vehicle that can replace my work pickup... Here is a typical winter day for me on the construction site, can you see either of those vehicles being able to pass through 20" of fresh snow in 15 degree F temps all while maintaining all of their abilities, range, etc? Looking at your semi prototype, what happens when all the heat exchangers are stuffed full of snow, and there is no airflow for cooling? Hmmm, I guess that is why trucks and SUV's do not use bottom breather cooling technologies, and corvettes that are bottom breathers do not drive in deep snow. And the other photo of the Ridgeline sized toy... I do not see that towing 18K equipment trailers, or driving in deep snow... do you?

 

Yeah, Batteries do great in freezing temperatures, and those Tesla's really tow... I think X is about 5K lb (less then its own weight) with over 50% loss in range. Come on Bob... 0-60 times do not matter in work vehicles, its a marathon every day, not a sprint. Also ICE gets the cabin heat and defrost with no range penalty, BEV.. Not so much. I am not anti BEV pickup, but lets be realistic, I see what Tesla can build for $70K in the Model S... What skills does it have? deep snow? Towing? Range? Range in cold weather? Range at high speed? Range towing 2.5X its own weight? Cargo carrying? Model S has very limited skills, mostly useless other then basic transportation that you can get from Bolt or Leaf just as well, and arguable with higher reliability... And do not tell me about range, because Bolt beat the Model S 75 in range in Consumer Reports testing.

Pickups are going to be way way way harder to engineer in BEV, modern pickups have so many capabilities and skills, and it all comes down total mass for capabilities. Pickups also cannot be very aerodynamically optimized, because good aerodynamics handicap so many other skills pickups have. Like ground clearance, towing ability. My truck is more comfortable then the Model S for 5 people, and can tow, has a 600 mile range, can drive across state at 85-90MPH and keep a 500 mile range over mountains and all.

 

I think both the Semi, and the pickup are going to be tough.... As much trouble as Tesla had and is still having with Model 3, the pickup is magnitudes more complicated, and the semi a magnitude past that. I do not believe that Tesla has done anything other then photo ops with the semi. I sent Elon a Tweet saying to do a 3rd party verified full load road test across the USA, and he immediately blocked me on twitter. I was very nice, and respectful, but mentioned crossing scales every charging. It was rumored that they had water ballast tanks in the test trailer, with plumbing to dump the water while traveling. I lost the little bit of respect I had for Elon at that moment... I said "prove it", and he blocked me... You want to impress companies and get orders... prove the capability... or STFU... Kenworth, which has a manufacturing plant here in Seattle is just the opposite, they call me to show me new projects.

On the pickup, I think a Ridgeline size pickup is possible but the price will be so high, it will never make inroads except for people already interested in Tesla. Trying to do a BEV pickup to replace the full size work truck is going to be tough. even if the engineering works, those are the most loyal customers in the auto industry.. just look at the effort Toyota and Nissan have put into trucks, billions spent and piddly market share. I am going to buy my last work truck next year, as soon as the GMC has super-cruise. I have 10 more years to work, so it will be my last one. Notice I did not say shop for pickup... Most people just replace their pickup, they do not even shop for a different brand.

 

You link a video where Bjorn has incredibly high consumption and reduced energy? Why, you are just making my point for me? Sorry, sometimes I think you really miss my point. Bjorn never shut the car down and let it "cold soak", and still had system problems, and failures.

GM tests for this, does Tesla? http://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/gm-facilities/gm-canada-facilities/gm-cold-weather-development-center-kapuskasing-ontario-canada/

On the white collar cowboys, we live in a free country, people can drive whatever they want, its not my position to judge people on their vehicle choice. I worry about my life, not other folks.

 

Bob, you do not understand sense of humor... When I said batteries are good in freezing I was being funny, everyone knows they are terrible.

Interesting that Bjorn, who has never driven or charged an I-Pace gives what you consider valid data... Is that data more valid to you then the WLTP test data that can be verified? WLTP data says I-Pace beats the Model X hot, cold, fast, and slow in wh/m, But Bjorn who has never driven or charged the I-Pace claims different and you post that as data?

Superchargers are great, for some people they provide value, not me... I am not going to be sitting beside the road charging.. My car will charge just like my iPhone, while I sleep...