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Discussion in 'Porsche' started by David Green, Oct 13, 2019.
Looks like Porsche is announcing the next model to release. No pricing yet...
A few more details here including range - 253 miles (407 km) with the 79.2 kWh pack and 288 miles (463 km) with the 93.4 kWh pack.
Pricing to start at $116,000 USD (in Germany)
EDIT - This site says $103,800 for performance and $110,000 for the plus...
either way its still out of my price range
253 miles WLTP would be between 200 and 225 EPA. Lower than S, but this will really charge up things and present a true competition to the S at the high end. VW/Porsche seem to be ready to bring real competition to Tesla, especially if this will available in Spring 2020 in the US. For those people to whom range may not be the defining factor, Taycan 4S will be a very good alternative to the S. @David Green, I have always acknowledged that there are dark clouds in the horizon for Tesla, did not imagine that it would come this quick. Tesla better do something quick as this could be a game changer and hurt margins pretty badly.
Also the US price may be $103,000
How Does The 4S Differ From Taycan Turbo And Turbo S?
There is quite a bit of difference between the 4S and the Taycan Turbo and Turbo S. Most of the changes are quite subtle, but Porsche does point out the following:
Distinguishing features of the Taycan 4S compared with the Turbo and Turbo S include the aerodynamically optimized 19-inch Taycan S Aero wheels and brake calipers painted in red, typical of Porsche’s two-door sports cars. The front fascia with new geometry, side skirts and rear diffuser in black ensure further visual differentiation. LED headlights including Porsche Dynamic Light System Plus (PDLS Plus) are equipped as standard.
Some additional differences between the variants can be spotted in the two spec sheet posted below:
Just my opinion, but I don't see a lot of cross-shopping between the Model S/ Model X and the Taycan. Those car buyers jonesing for a high-end Porsche aren't likely to be looking seriously at Tesla cars, and vice versa.
It's great that VW has had so much demand for the Taycan that they have doubled their planned production for the first year! But even twice the sales aren't going to make a noticeable dent in Tesla's sales, let alone a significant dent.
Again all just my opinion, but in this case I can hardly see any way I could possibly be wrong. Would-be Tesla Model S buyers flocking to the Taycan simply isn't a realistic scenario. The real competition for the Taycan and for Tesla cars isn't other BEVs, it's gasmobiles.
True EV advocates should be celebrating the EV market getting more compelling models of BEVs for customers to choose from, not viewing the entry of another compelling BEV as a zero-sum game!
Up the EV revolution!
I think there are basically two categories of EV buyers. Low end buyers (starting at 35K) will be looking for cost savings over an equiv ICE vehicle. The high end (100K and up) will be looking for performance and bling.
The justification/rationalization will be against ICE vehicles, but the competition will be against other BEV vehicles who can best meet the demand criteria.
Well, we'll have to wait to see who's right, won't we? As I see it, Taycan buyers will be those who want an expensive, high-end, brand-name (Porsche) performance sports car that just happens to be a BEV. Contrariwise, Tesla buyers tend to be either those who want a high-tech EV just because it's high-tech and/or because it offers a better driving experience than any gasmobile, or those who choose a BEV for environmental reasons, or both. Those looking at the Model S are looking for a luxury (or "premium") BEV that just happens to be high performance.
I think the Venn diagram of those two groups of customers are going to have very little overlap. But we'll know when we see statistics for how many trade in their Model S for a Taycan. Given the fact that the Model S scores so highly on Consumer Reports' annual list for customer satisfaction, given the fact that it got knocked out of the #1 spot only by the Tesla Model 3, I'm predicting the percentage of Model S owners who trade their car in for a Taycan is going to be very low indeed!
Well, you are almost saying the same thing. Yes, the high end will definitely be looking for performance and luxury, and it will be better than an ICE car at the same price. Then the question becomes which BEV manufacturer can best meet that demand criteria.
But the low end buyers will be looking more for value over an equiv ICE vehicle. High tech is inherent, but I doubt most low end buyers are doing it for environmental reasons. They can't afford to.
The M3 straddles both, as the Std Range is clearly at the low end. But the Performance model certainly meets that portion of the high end demand criteria. Where it falls short is on the bling/luxury. In some ways, that also is not unlike some ICE vehicles which are high performance, but are not that expensive (and lack bling). So maybe there are really three categories of BEV buyers.
Your guess or opinion may be better than mine. However, I think that while the normal demographics of a Prosche buyer and Tesla buyer have little intersection in a Venn Diagram, the Taycan is now appealing to a different demographic. This is the group of buyers who are interested in EVs but like the cachet and performance associated with a Porsche. There is more esteem value to saying I have EV from Porsche than saying I have a EV from TEsla, especially when the price tag is about the same.
Even I might personally consider a Taycan 4S if I were in that price range. Porsche is trying to get a new set of buyers, those who were not a traditional Porsche buyer but are interested in high end EVs. They are trying to sway a new demographic, who had no choice but the S till very recently Again, I do not think the measure is how many S buyers trade in their car for Taycan, but how many first time buyers chose a Taycan 4S over a Tesla S. Only time will tell but I I think it will be a fair amount. With a $103K price tag, Taycan is very much in the ball park.
Only time will tell. And I believe that Elon is taking Taycan seriously, else why would he be so aggressive about Nürburgring.
That's an interesting viewpoint. I think the body style of the Taycan was chosen to appeal to traditional Porsche buyers; but on the other hand, it's got 4 doors, which certainly would appear to appeal more to the sort of buyer looking at the Model S. So perhaps there will be more appeal outside the typical Porsche buyer than I thought?
Anyway, I'm enjoying this discussion, "interestedinEV". Who knows? Perhaps the truth will emerge as something in between the positions we've staked out here.
Because of the publicity value. In that respect, Tesla has already had a tremendous success, quite aside from the time of that prototype "Plaid" Model S beating the Taycan's reported Nürburgring lap time so handily.
Tesla's development of the "Plaid" Model S isn't about the Taycan. It's about Tesla continually getting slammed for the Model S/X not being able to "take the heat" on challenging race courses. It was more or less inevitable that after Tesla developed a better cooling system for the Model 3 battery pack, that they would design a new Model S/X pack to use similar architecture. Tesla's Nürburgring run is a very clear signal that they've solved the problem of overheating in their battery packs. It's entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that the news about the Taycan spurred Tesla (or Elon) to do a sponsored Nürburgring at this time, with the "Plaid" Model S still a year or so away from production, and presumably still in development. But Tesla was going to do something similar anyway, sooner or later, with a "Plaid" Model S. In fact, Tesla recently did a sponsored run at the Laguna Seca track, apparently also using one or more "Plaid" Model S prototypes. That didn't get nearly as much attention, because it didn't give journalists an excuse to come up with a "Tesla vs. Porsche" story, the way Tesla's Nürburgring run has.
Also, surely Tesla wants to start using the 2170 cells in the Model S/X packs, as Elon originally stated shortly before the Model 3 entered production. He's said the opposite several times since then, but I think that's only due to a chronic shortage of 2170 cells. With Tesla contracting with LG Chem for 2170(0)* cells in Model 3's made in China, it seems to me that Tesla is no longer willing to be constrained by Panasonic's ability to supply cells. Switching to 2170(0) cells for the MS/MX packs isn't about beating the heat, but it surely is the direction that Tesla wants to go, and I've been continually surprised that it's taking them so long to make that switch. Surprising that Tesla would leave all that money on the table, so to speak. But we know that Tesla has had an ongoing problem with 2170 cell shortage. They haven't been able to do more than token production of PowerWalls for the same reason: A shortage of 2170 cells.
*Industry standard would label these cylindrical cells "21700" cells -- that is, 21 mm wide and 70.0 mm high -- but Panasonic has eschewed the norm and labeled theirs the "2170" cell.
Only by comparison to other Tesla cars. Personally, I've never owned a car as expensive as one that sold for a base price of $35,400. To me, "low end" would mean $25,000 and under.
When I did a survey of the best selling cars (not light trucks) on the American auto market a year or two ago, all of the top 10 or 12 best-sellers were priced under $28,000. So I know it's not just me.
When I quoted the low end price, I was referring to the EV ranges. The equiv low end ICE vehicle would be about $10K less, or $25,000. That's what the EV has to beat in payback to compete successfully against those ICE vehicles for that market segment. And with incentives and higher gas prices, that equation looks pretty good.
But at the higher end (100K+), as I mentioned previously, it is less about price and more about performance and bling.
@Pushmi-Pullyu , I look at it more holistically and globally. Forget what is happening in the US (as much as it pains me to say so). In Europe and Asia (mainly China), there is a big push towards zero emissions. This has put a lot of pressure on Auto Manufacturers to come out with more efficient vehicles, which includes BEVs. Adoption there is increasing better than in the US. What Tesla has shown is that a well built EV with some advanced features has demand for it. They have found a path, but for a variety of reasons, have not been able to capitalize on it to the extent possible. They have had problems ramping up. And also, in Europe, distances traveled are not that much, roads are generally narrower, public transportation is available and smaller cars sell well, an area where Tesla cannot afford to get in now as margins are low.
VW, not exactly the paragon for corporate ethics, has read the tea leaves and are putting their might, as the second largest automotive group into EVs. (They were a customer of mine a long time back and I have visited their Wolfsburg facility many times.) They have bright product and marketing people also, may not be as razor sharp as Elon is but, but collectively they have a lot of data and knowledge. It looks to me that they want to expand their market share and would look to new customers, especially for their luxury brands. In my simplistic and limited viewpoint, they are encircling Tesla from different directions. They are coming out with ID3 for the European Market under the VW nameplate, the Crozz which should take on Tesla Y, the Audi E-tron aimed at the lower end of the X/S, the Prosche Taycan 4S at the higher end of the X/S, and the Tacayn S at the super high end. Our mutual friend @bwilson4web keeps hitting me on the head (and rightly so) when I talk about other manufacturers, by asking about their charging network. While we can debate how VW got there, they have one of their own. So they are taking Tesla on that front to.
I am sure one of their target demographics for the VW are the first time Tesla X/S/3 buyers. A good friend of mine who has Model 3 asked me if I had looked at the Taycan. He may want to trade up the S in about 2 years but he said he would look at options including the Taycan at that time, that he did find certain things missing in his Tesla and was not committed to buying the S any more. In other words, he is not exhibiting the fierce brand loyalty to Tesla that he once did. Again, sample size of one, but I think there are more people in that boat. If a manufacturer sees an opportunity to take away business from a competitor, they will. Instead of trying to get a S customer to switch to the Taycan, why not look at the person who is looking at the potential Tesla S customer and is interested but not committed to the Tesla brand? Honestly, I would rather drive a Porsche then a Tesla S (to satisfy my ego), if I could afford it and it met my needs for an environmentally positive car.
Again, unlike @David Green I think that Tesla has a lot of strengths. To me VW is looking at Tesla strategically, and trying to contain Tesla's growth. But the market is growing and will be big enough to support many manufacturers, but Tesla has to learn to co-exist, rather than act as the only game in town. They would have to fight for customers, rather than have customers banging at their door. They are still the only game in town in certain markets, but I do see the dark clouds on the horizon. Can Tesla weather proof themselves before the storm arrives? Only time will tell.
Here is a good balanced comparison of the Taycan 4S Vs Taycan Turbo vs Tesla S
Final Conclusion in the article is that they are very comparable.
Down to brass tacks
On paper, the Porsche Taycan Turbo S and the Tesla Model S Performance are pretty darn similar. Yet, the Taycan appears a fair bit more performance-oriented than the Model S, thanks to inclusions like standard carbon-ceramic brakes. The Model S, on the other hand, keeps things a little more livable, with more cargo capacity, interior space and range. The Taycan 4S variants still err on the performance side, but they sacrifice some figures compared to the Turbo models in order to keep the price more sensible. It all comes down to how you like your steak prepared, really.
I agree that Tesla has a lot of strengths, my issue is the guy in charge commits so many unforced errors, costing the company and its investors dearly. Model 3 rollout, cost at least $1B more than it should have, and then the little fines and reprimands from the SEC, all the while offending more would be buyers... Those are all unforced, Tesla did not have to make those mistakes to maintain their growth path (VW will not make those mistakes, nor will GM, Toyota, etc...). Now they are doing the same thing, rushing into China, and Model Y... We will see how it works out, meanwhile my E-Tron continues to perform flawlessly, still not seen even a software glitch.
I saw at least two big red flags as Tesla was gearing up for Model 3 production, and said so several times back in the day.
Contrariwise, I see no red flags at all about Tesla's efforts in China to build the Shanghai Gigafactory, nor to put the Model 3 and Model Y into production there. Tesla has wisely chosen not to stick with Panasonic as the cell supplier in China, and is using cells sourced from Chinese factories with no connection to China's traditional enemy, Japan. (Panasonic is a Japanese company.)
Furthermore, Tesla doesn't plan to finish installing all parts of the assembly lines until March 2020, which again seems to be a realistic timeline, unlike Tesla's unrealistic plans for getting the Model 3 into production more quickly than was practical.
Of course we can't be sure that there won't be any major hiccups along the way to full-speed production at Gigafactory 3, but so far things seem to be progressing smoothly and according to plan.
Long story short: This is just another bit of "David Green's" fact-free serial Tesla bashing. Looking a bit wider, the hardcore Tesla bashers are very upset at how well Tesla's Gigafactory 3 is progressing. It runs directly against their repeated bleating about "falling demand" for Tesla cars! Yeah, demand is "falling"; it's falling up rather sharply every year!
There have been some self inflicted wounds, though he has done many things right. And that is where Tesla and Elon have to mature. Get the job done and then talk.
And unfortunately, Elon does not seem to understand that sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Take the autonomous driving. He has dished his competitors, rolled out products that could have used a little more testing. Waymo on the other hand, is quietly and without fanfare rolling out fully autonomous driving, albeit in a geo-fenced area with restrictions on how it is used. Elon on other hand implies that his technology is ready for use under a larger set of parameters, which is not unconditionally true. And this for example, has caused embarrassment. Similarly, there was no need for the spat between NASA and SapceX, Elon could have let the matter die down with getting into it. Even now Elon could put the spelunker controversy to rest by saying he had wrong information, he is sorry and pay a small amount. His ego will not allow him to do so.
While I agree that their Gigagactory 3 would be better planned and less prone to surprises, Elon has not stopped shooting his mouth off. As they say "loose lips sink ships" and that concern I share with @David Green. It is not that Elon is making a big mistake now, it is the fact that he is erratic and this could lead to a big mistake in the future. Neither has he proven that he has grown up, nor has the Board has shown that they are capable of adult supervision.
I think Elon needs to lay off the drugs. Don't know if he always did pot, but it can't be helping him, that's for sure.
The price of "bling" just went up :
Fortunately I won't have a worry about the "Porsche Experience delivery charge" as I don't reside in Los Angeles or Atlanta
Friend of mine pre-ordered a 2nd year Taycan as he is worried about first year issues. He is a Porsche enthusiast and currently has a GT2 and a Panamera..
I did the same thing with Taycan Turbo to respond to one of @101101 posts where he claimed the actual cost of the Taycan Turbo was $250k.
The base cost is still around $103K and if you had a few needed options, it will be about $120K. Now if I am going to put in all the options, I may as well go in for the Taycan S or the Taycan S turbo, which has many of the options as standard. A lot of the options added have no impact on the car or the performance. The leather wallet for $560 or the personalized leather luggage set for $6323 etc. can quickly add up to a lot. So a lot of the additions are only those that will attract the connoisseur, not most others. Again, most people will not buy all these options. It is more of an academic exercise.
Vehicle Keys in Leather incl. One Key Pouch in Leather $690
Owner's Manual Wallet in Leather $560
Ski Bag $250
Under Door Puddle Light Projectors $330
Personalized Door-Sill Guards in Matter Carbon Fiber $4,060
Brumster High End Sound System (in addition to Premium) $5810
Leather Luggage Set $6,323
Leather Care Set $63