Case Study: Buy low, Sell high

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

  2. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    I guess you do not understand manufacturing. Once a line is set up and running companies like to run it until it pays for itself, and produces some kind of profit. Tesla and Panasonic invested 4.5B into GF1, and are not going to walk away from that investment until some profit is made. At this point Tesla has only made an offer to purchase Maxwell, and the currency Tesla offered (stock) has dropped dramatically since the day of the offer. I would say Maxwell is not real hip on Tesla's currency at this point. Like you say, on April 24th Tesla will show what is sure to be horrible earnings, and the bubble of the Tesla growth story goes POP. Maybe Tesla can con investors to think they are close to FSD on April 22nd, and they will overlook the earnings report a couple days later, but I think Wall Street has a better understanding of the real challenges of FSD these days, and realizes Elon Musk's timelines are always a bit ahead of where the company really is... Let's not forget Elon stated in 2016 a Tesla would drive cross country fully autonomous, and showed a video of a Model S driving its owner to work... and then parking itself. Hmmm BS... Maybe it should be called partial self driving, as you (Bob) yourself have already discovered several flaws in Autopilot even in simple daily driving.
  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well, there you go again.
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    To answer with the same tone you started with, "Your illusions about manufacturing are silly."

    For example, what happened to the Toyota and GM factory in Fremont? Then there is:

    The most recent actions included plans to cut 15 percent of its 54,000 North American salaried jobs, including a quarter of its global executives, and to end production at five North American plants in 2019, when it will discontinue the Chevrolet Cruze and five other cars. GM said it also would close two unidentified plants elsewhere in the world by the end of next year.

    GM did not definitively say it would close the North American plants — including Oshawa Assembly in Ontario, Lordstown Assembly in Ohio and Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly in Michigan — but rather that they would end production and not be given new vehicles to build. Powertrain plants in Warren, Mich., and Baltimore don't have products assigned after next year either.


    No problem, the dice are out and "Survival is not mandatory."
    The SHORT sweet song:

    Siren, in Greek mythology, a creature half bird and half woman who lured sailors to destruction by the sweetness of her song. According to Homer there were two Sirens on an island in the western sea between Aeaea and the rocks of Scylla.
    Which is why I am testing AutoPilot to understand the strengths and limitations. So far, Tesla dynamic cruise control is better than the BMW i3-REx optical system and at least as good as the Prius Prime. It removes a significant driver load.

    "Auto-steering" allows me to address cabin distractions without having to worry about drifting into a ditch or into on coming traffic. Happily, my practice of following other vehicles reduces the few risks I've found. At $3k, it costed me the same order of magnitude that Hyundai and GM had quoted for their dynamic cruise control. Now basic AutoPilot is standard in Tesla cars just like the Toyota and Honda systems.

    Bob Wilson

    ps. We don't have to trade 'snark' to offer our opinions. Perhaps it is best to illuminate by example than start with an insult. It can too easily become toxic to a forum or thread.

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019
  5. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Saying that you do not understand manufacturing is not a snarky comment, most people don't understand manufacturing, so I assume by following your comments you are in that group. I assume you also do not know much about how margin investing works, because various comments you have made are simply not true, or radically misleading. I have been around manufacturing plants quite a lot, having worked on projects both in automotive and aerospace, and have been investing, both in cash and on margin since 1987 when I bought my first MSFT stock. Like always, I was late to the party, but I still own those shares, and wow, 300+ baggers... Could have been 4X that had I been a year earlier.

    I am not sure why you mention anything about GM, not the topic of discussion here, nor the topic in this forum, but GM did make some serious profit last year, and has guided for even more profit this year. Yes, they are shutting down old factories with products that do not make money, but at the same time investing in factories and hiring for products that are profitable... Well, It is a business, and the intent is to make a profit. My buddy is a roving project manager for the company that builds GM's paint shops. they have built new paint shops at 6 of their assembly plants the last few years, and all 3 truck plants got new body shops as well. Absolute state of the art.

    Glad you like autopilot. I think it is pretty good too, but the little I have played with it, there are too many false brake events. Overpasses in the summertime really mess with autopilot.

    Anyway Bob, I just like to keep you honest, you posted on here several times about your profits, but got very quiet when the TSLA stock fell... You should tell both sides of the story
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Well David, you lying *** if personal attacks are how you choose to communicate ... GAME ON! Son. When I was at Oklahoma State we had a bunch of kids from New Jersey whose verbal practices with each other were shocking. Had I, my relatives, or neighbors spoken like these New Jersey kids regularly did to each other, it would have been 'hide the knives and baseball bats because there is going to be a fight.' Between college and four years in the US Marine Corps, I learned there are folks who actually think insults is the only way they know how to communicate. Back to the subject at hand.

    I also increased my shares when "the TSLA stock fell" by selling some of my KL stock and converting to more TSLA. I too am expecting the "fallen" to rise again and have a sell option pending. Fortunately, we are headed towards at least two sets of accurate TSLA facts and data:
    • April 22 - self-driving technology investor meeting
    • April 24 - Q1 2019 financials
    For what it is worth, I draw retirement from General Electric and Boeing and have some experience with manufacturing business practices. That is why I keep my eye on what is important, customer satisfaction which led to trading in a Toyota Prius Prime.

    My Standard Range Plus Model 3 with basic AutoPilot remains delightful after three weeks and over 1,500 mi. I especially like the software update ~10 days ago that smoothed some of the AutoPilot rough edges. A retired engineer, the only shortcoming are the Owner's Manuals but that is a common fault shared with BMW and Toyota. My habit is to join user forums where the members experiment and share their unpublished reports about our rides.

    If you want to communicate trading insults, you'll soon find yourself shouting to the wind. I really don't have time to waste on the foolish and ignorant. So it is time you take a 30 day 'time out': <PLOINK>

    Bob Wilson
  7. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Bob, I went back to re-read my last comment, and fail to see "personal attacks". Maybe you have a higher level of sensitivity than I am used to. I do not think keeping you honest is insulting, nor is pointing out the flaw in your messages or ways. Personally insulting would be to degrade you personally which I have not done. You are not the first person to lose money investing in TSLA, all the while losing many other and much better opportunities with your cash. You are correct though, that TSLA stock will go back up, Tesla is currently conducting a FDS test demonstration, which if successful will positively impact the share price. This may get investors to see beyond the April 24 brutal earnings report, but for me, I think Tesla's strategy on FSD is flawed and unsafe, so whatever pop the stock gets will be right back down here at some point because ultimately the fundamental business is flawed and unable to be sustainably profitable. Tesla has run into a demand cliff in the USA, and sales have been very slow to start 2019 for all 3 models, when compared to Q3, and Q4 2018. I think the vehicles reached a saturation point in the market, and now sales are harder to get. Tesla tired to mitigate this by bringing the low end Model 3, and several price reductions, which pulled ahead sales for the month of March, but the local distribution center here in Seattle and the others I follow online have gone quiet again so far in April.

    Tesla guided in January 2019 when they reported Q4 earnings all qtrs forward will be profitable, we will see about that on April 24th...

    Tesla also guided the Mid range Model 3 would go on sale in all markets the second half of the year to keep the demand high... Umm, they had to go all the way down to the short range model 3 in all markets in April to keep the demand up enough to keep Fremont running. Europe and China demand for Model 3 is well short of Tesla's guidance.

    Tesla also guided Model 3 leasing coming in late 2019, once again April 2019 (this will have a huge effect on the Q2 2019 earnings, leasing is subsidizing the moving of iron, and is not the same as cash sales.

    When you look at these serious material guidance misses its very clear the captain at the helm has no idea what they are doing, and they are just winging it, and shooting from the hip.

    Anyway, I hope you do not take these comments and opinions as insults, certainly not my intent, although you were earlier quick to bash my short trades which were successful and my growing pile of cash in my high risk account is back on the sideline and just hoping the April 22 FSD reveal pushed the stock back to $365, which is my strike price to short again.

    BTW, just so you do not think I am the same type of hypocrite, I nearly doubled my money buying NIO on IPO (held less than 22 hours), but the second time I bought NIO has been a loser and I sold on Monday at a slight loss (9%), I am looking for a new spot to purchase NIO now, as I totally believe in their management team and strategy however the challenges of starting a new car company are big, and there is risk the stock could go to zero.
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Well I found a forum more inline with my goals and objectives:
    As is my practice, I 'clean-up' any where I've been posting and realize some are oblivious to their poor posting practices:
    • I went back to re-read my last comment, and fail to see "personal attacks". - Teaching a pig to sing won't work and annoys the pig. Elimination or reducing the use of the 2nd person, "you" would fix about 80% of the problem. Substitute "many" or 3d person for "you" and it won't be 'nails on a blackboard' inviting a reply in kind.
    • Maybe you have a higher level of sensitivity than I am used to. - Four years in the Marine Corps, I can handle most irritations and don't feel necessary to respond to every imprecise or crude comment.
    • I do not think keeping you honest is insulting - this is a bald face lie because you are attempting to question my honesty, my character. Then I remember the kids from New York and New Jersey who would talk trash at each other. If I'd used the same style, "hide the knives and baseball bats because there is going to be a fight." I later realized they came from what we call 'trailer trash' families that don't know any better. I'm Southern and we don't cotton to such talk.
    • You are not the first person to lose money investing in TSLA - and still haven't but that is not my problem but yours. It means you've made an ***umption which again does nothing to improve interest in your postings.
    My reason for visiting InSideEVs was to share with other EV owners tricks and techniques about charging solutions. But along the way, I also shared my other EV experiences. Sad to say, the SHORT noise turned out to be a mistake.

    I appreciate @Pushmi-Pullyu who has a sensible head and clear understanding of reality. The moderators are pretty good if over worked. But I have found another forum of like minded individuals and will mostly post there. I also like the News summaries and efforts to track monthly sales. Facts and data are my bread and butter.

    Bob Wilson
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You'd do better -- much better -- if you started with yourself on that.

    The entire tone of your last few comments absolutely stinks. It is possible to "disagree without being disagreeable", but quite clearly you're not interested in that.

    Most likely it won't be long until you're kicked off this forum again, hopefully this time for good.

  10. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Thats great, Bob, I am glad to hear that you found a place to go and share tips and tricks about charging solutions, where the people are polite enough to satisfy your sensitive nature. I only replied here because this link "which you started" has nothing whatsoever to do with charging solutions, and everything to do with investing. Investing is a topic I am interested in, and very experienced with.

    As for losing money investing in TSLA, you have stated on here that your initial basis was in the $290's, and then you recommended buying again over $320, and near $330. Sir, if you buy a security or asset and then market value drops below what you paid, you have lost equity which is quite the same as losing money at a specific moment in time. Its the same argument I have had with people who win a little initially at a casino, and then try to convince me they are playing with house money... NOPE, if you initially win at the casino, and then after lose the winnings, that is your money that was lost. The casino had already given the money to you, and let you keep it on your side of the table (AKA your money). Its the same with marketable securities, if the stock goes up, and you fail to sell and then it goes down, you lost at that moment of time. Now, I have held MSFT since 1987 and it has gone up and down in that time (mostly up), but right now it is at an all time high, and over 300X what I paid, so I have decided to cash out some (pay the taxes) for this exact reason. I missed the top in 1999 because the stock had been so good, no way I was selling. I had to wait out the Ballmer years and now the times are good again. This is the real buy low / sell high example.

    As for that other poster you mentioned, I have him blocked as he does not have any real knowledge or experience in the topics we discuss, and is basically just on here bashing certain people for entertainment, without his own

    BTW Bob, I noticed a while back you invaded the Jaguar forums, was that also to share tips and tricks about charging solutions? Your posts there did not mention any tips or tricks about charging, and you mostly were being an alarmist about the efficiency, or lack there of in your posts. I understand that you prefer the forum is an echo chamber for your thoughts, wouldn't that be nice?
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Actually I'm seeking forums with people who understand what I'm posting:

    In contrast, you and I share no common understanding of:
    1. physics, chemistry, and math (aka., engineering)
    2. best business practices (aka., importance of superior products)
    Good luck!

    Bob Wilson
  12. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Thanks... Good Luck is always needed... I wish you good luck as well...

    On number 1 you might be correct. I am not a nerdy engineer that dives deep into details the average person could care less about. On point number 2, might be right too, as I actually have experience running a multimillion dollar business that is profitable every year, and has never had a customer complaint or product issue.
  13. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Wow, that earnings report was BRUTAL, Bob... Did you see my largest holding also reported earnings today, up nearly 4% after hours. I am still selling off my MSFT slowly...
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Here is the Q1 2019 report I've read:

    I've also listened to the audio. Off hand, it looks like Tesla will be in business for a little longer.

    Regardless, the day before, I completed a 537 mi, 13 hr, round trip in our SRM3+ to Tunica MS costing $17.53. Two different Superchargers were used, the Memphis one twice, without a problem (Ok, I did water the shrubbery.) My plan was to use RV park power while at the casino but the Hollywood casino did not have their one craps table working after 11PM

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
  15. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Man, that earnings report was bad bad bad.... For people less experienced in reading these reports the brutal 700M+ loss, and the negative 1.5B in cash flow is very bad, but the red flag for me is that the top line revenue dropped by $2.6B, but the accounts payable only dropped by $155M, this means Tesla extended payment terms, or just flat out delayed payments to most vendors. Those vendors have to be looking at the cash position and getting mighty nervous.

    Other negatives to consider,

    Tesla has another 188M payment due in April

    Tesla still has no idea where they will build Model Y

    Model Y seems to have received a very small amount of reservations (the customer deposit section on the balance sheet dropped in Q1)

    Semi is delayed to 2020, no decision on production location, Tesla did not want to talk about it other then to say "its great"

    Only 280M Cap EX spend in Q1, which is well below guidance. (this number included initial construction at GF3 spend) I know Tesla was building a new service center in Bellevue, WA at the former Sears service center on 148th, but construction has stopped over the last month or 2. So much for fixing the service problems, and I hear the last weeks complaints about Model 3 quality from Norway getting louder and louder.
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    :D :D :D

    Oh, snap!

    The conspiracy theory mania by the anti-Tesla cultists at TESLAQ is getting truly remarkable. In my opinion, they're into "Flat Earth Society" level of delusions! "Tesla is a fraud and Elon Musk should go to jail!"

    Ummm... ooooh kaaaay... (Back away slowly, avoid eye contact, and look around to make sure no sharp objects are within reach!)

  17. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Oh My Bob, do you have a new update for us on the buy high - sell low case study? I have an update, I have been selling some of my MSFT the last couple days, 360X over 31 years, which comes out to just under 12X my initial investment per year. The shame is that I do not even like Microsoft products, and since 2006 we are all Apple at home and business, but the best I have ever done in APPL stock is a 3 bagger on some of my early holdings. Sometimes it's not about the products, my friend, it's about the business, and their ability to execute. Microsoft was executing well in the late 80's, early 90's, and again in recent years leading to huge gains for shareholders. I am still holding over 15K shares as I think they may still have some room to run, but I have now taken $1.6M out of my original $10K investment. I remember my dad telling me if I listen to him as a teenager, I will never have to worry about money. He got me into my first real estate properties, but even more thankful he got me into MSFT with my life insurance savings account they had for me, he said I could get 5 or 10X my money in 10 years. Boy was he wrong on MSFT. That investment not only financially secured my life, but my children's lives as well. My only sadness is my dad was talking to me about MSFT in late 1986, had I made a move then my investment would be 3-4X better then it is. Oh well, I am always late to the party.
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My APPL experience was a 2x increase around 1991 in less than a year. We went from renter to home owner and that worked out well.

    It had been my habit to buy stock in my employer, often with employee stock ownership programs. But when I'd leave a company, I would sell the stock and always seemed to beat stock price decreases. I figured any company not bright enough to keep me was doomed.

    Bob Wilson
  19. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Wow Bob, every week it gets a little worse for TSLA (like Shorts have been predicting). I hope you were able to swallow your pride and cut bait before things got this bad. When a company is fundamentally broken, no amount of good will from fans can support the outlandish valuations. Tesla has been losing key institutional investors 1 by 1, and now is struggling to hold onto the few that are left. Even Cathie Wood has cut Ark's holdings dramatically. I think there are going to be some fire sale (no pun intended) discounts as we near the end of Q2... I wonder if it is better to buy at these discount prices, or wait for Toyota to take over and fix all the nagging engineering, and production problems and buy a better Tesla later at a higher price?
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    About TSLA, I remain patient as I prefer investing in leading technology. On paper and personal experience, the Tesla products remain supreme.

    Owning a Standard Range Plus Model 3 (SR+M3) and having completed trips of 500-760 miles, I am very happy with my ride. Long distance drives are significantly cheaper than our former Prius hybrids. Autopilot has already proven itself a significant safety aid. Around town, the SR+M3 is jaw dropping more efficient than the replaced, plugin Prius which was no slouch. Acceleration and handling are a lot of fun in traffic.

    So I remain both a customer and investor. Should the stock grow to earlier levels, I'll be quite happy. But even now, I've not lost any on my TSLA stock and actually made a nice profit last year. Unless I sell, I've not lost a penny and I see no reason to sell anytime soon.

    Bob Wilson

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