In some areas, the 1st wave isn't over. There are far too many people in denial about it - demanding reopening of things while the case rates are still increasing. There are governors that are fudging the numbers, and some that are refusing to perform testing. That being said, I have seen data from cell phones that mobility was decreasing *before* governments starting issuing stay-at-home orders. Had they done nothing, restaurants and such would have still seen a substantial decrease in the number of patrons.