Was Toyota right? Lagging EV sales

I agree that EVs need to get cheaper, and I think they will. Tesla will force that. And the new EX30 will, too.

 

But was Toyota right? No. I have never seen a single hydrogen filling station anywhere. New EVgo and Electrify America stations are being installed every week. I see EVs all over the roads everywhere I go, both Teslas and legacy-maker EVs.

In my pre-EV days I was a staunch Toyota fan. Drove nothing but Toyotas for more than 20 years. Now that I've become an EV driver, I can't see myself ever buying another Toyota--not even an "electrified" one (whatever that means).

The EV market will settle down. I'm confident of that.

 

There are surplus gas vehicles, too.

Toyota is "spinning" a narrative to serve its own interests.

The market for personal autos is likely to shrink, Globally.

 

Those stories don't discuss Tesla sales. But my recent survey in an Ioniq forum confirms the excess inventory:

• China EVs face a 25% tariff retained from a previous administration.
• EU EVs do not get the generous Federal subsidies.
• Some domestic EV makers are at generation 1-2 while Tesla is beyond gen 4.
• EV performance is debatable but I no longer follow EV reviewers of non-Tesla cars. Their glasses are too 'rosy' which maintains early access to "Press" cars.

Bob Wilson

 

Ever since Inside EV's discontinued overall sales comparisons a few years ago, just for fun I have been cobbling together numbers to track sales from individual InsideEV's articles and the GoodCarBadCar (GCBC) sales figure by models page. Here one can make a direct comparison by model using monthly and year-to-date numbers to compare last year to this year. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/

From what I can gather, overall US BEV sales are up from over 5% (of total light duty vehicle sales) in all of 2022, to over 7% in 2023. Overall US BEV sales by legacy automakers for 2022 were a little under 250,000. So far in the first half of 2023 BEV sales by legacy automakers are a little over 200,000. Tesla was just under 500,000 in 2022, and in the first half of 2023 has sold almost 350,000. However, these are my own calculations for my own amusement and so I round them off here. Partly because not all OEM's report detailed sales breakdowns for models with BEV and ICE versions and some do not break down US sales by model so I have to rely on the Inside EV's articles for those numbers.

On GCBC webpage, of the 28 reported legacy automaker BEV only model sales, 18 show a percentage increase in sales for the first half of 2023 compared to 2022 first half, while 10 show decreased sales.

 

I would get a hydrogen car immediately, but unless you live in San Francisco or Los Angeles, it’s impossible. It’s practically vapor ware. I remember when the Mirai was so exclusive they would choose celebrities to own/drive them. All the investment in EV stations and none in hydrogen makes the Mirai (and the Clarity) a dead end.

 

It sucks that EV pricing runs like a commodities market, like they were gold bars or pork bellies. We're
buying something with real-world practical utility, like a fridge or a hammer, and the pricing should simply
reflect that value rather than fall victim to these stupid financial games and opportunistic profiteering.

_H*

 

First, let's correct some misunderstandings in the original post. EV sales in the U.S., at least, are not "sluggish." In the 2nd quarter they were up 48% from a year ago, a massively better showing than the automotive market overall. EV market share in the U.S. in Q2 was 7.2%, up from 5.7% last year. And, as the link above notes, Tesla's market share is actually continuing to slip, though they are still no. 1 by a large margin. It would no doubt have dropped more if not for their price cut.

Yes, inventories of some legacy carmakers' EVs have piled up. That's a function of several factors, including Tesla's price cut, increased production/availability, and the way the changes in federal EV incentives have scrambled things for those whose models don't qualify (except they might if it's a lease, which makes little sense and adds even more confusion).

The EV market is going to be a bit of a jumble for a while, and some people won't be comfortable making the switch for a couple more years at least. But it's growing rapidly, and no, Toyota was NOT right. We do need more affordable EVs, and GM's announcement that a new, Ultium-based Bolt is in development shows they understand this.

 

Tesla now outsells Toyota in California

For 2023Q2 "Tesla was the bestselling brand in California with just north of 69,000 units compared to Toyota’s 67,000 units" (all vehicles, not just EVs). Doesn't sound like EV sales are lagging.

 

Part of the problem is the auto industry as a whole - I saw a story that put the 5 year inflation at around 21%. Guess how much Ford, GM and Stellantis have "inflated" their vehicles? Nearly 50%. I've seen reports that there are nearly a years worth supply of jeeps at some dealers, and they are STILL asking for a 10k market adjustment.

I saw the same issue myself at Hyundai and Kia dealers. Not only have the lost their EV tax credit, they were still asking for a huge market adjustment on EV6 or Ioniq 5!! And they had dozens sitting on the lot! Both the manufactures and dealers have lost their sense of reality on the market, and on what consumers can afford.

 

Hyundai is currently offering $7,500 off a new Ioniq 5, plus another $2,500 for current Hyundai owners, and most of the Seattle dealers are taking an additional amount off MSRP. So if you are looking to buy an Ioniq 5, you might want get going.

https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/offers/detail?Model=IONIQ%205&ModelYear=2023&YrSerCd=20235&ModelGroupCd=5004&TrimName=SEL&OfferType=Cash

 

That link takes me to a page that tells me where my local Hyundai dealer is located. There is no mention of a $7,500 discount.

When I go to my local dealer's website, there is a $5,000 dealer discount on 3 of the 11 Ioniq 5s they have in stock; the rest are listed at MSRP (which is almost a discount after the dealer markups they were formerly charging). I guess I would have to fly from Detroit to Seattle to get a $7,500 discount, but then I'd have to pay for a plane ticket and the costs of the 2,300-mile cross-country trip home.

 

I checked again:

 

Even if you can get an Ioniq 5 for MSRP+addons then minus 5k.... it still isn't competitive with Model Y, or even ID4. ID4 in my area has NO addons, is marked down about 2-3k (plus you can almost certainly negotiate further) AND gets a 7500 tax credit. I'm not saying the ioniq 5 is or isn't worth more, but not everyone can afford 50k. Plus as of two weeks ago, at least in person, both my Hyundai and Kia dealers still had markups on the cars. I'm not seeing that online, but often dealers play games with different online and in-person prices.

All that said, if I was buying RIGHT now I would have to go for a model Y. I think it's the best value. Though we do like our ID4, no real complaints, and I'm not shopping right now. Plus you could go the lease route for Hyundai or Kia to snag that tax credit... sort of.

 

So sorry, you said "slowing dramatically." A 48% year over year increase is not "slowing dramatically." It's not slowing at all. And again, Tesla's market share dropped. Is this hard to understand?