A report in Reuters claims that Tesla Model Y production could start as early as November of 2019. It also says that production will happen at the Fremont factory. I would take this with a teaspoon or two of salt, personally. If true, then I would look at November '19 in much the same way as when that Musk asked suppliers to prepare for an extra early production start date, to try to ensure that the entire chain would be ready for the "actual" start date. Though it is supposed to be built on the Model 3 platform, saving some amount of development time, this date sounds too soon for a number of reasons. One, less important reason, we haven't seen a design yet. We don't even know if they've gone pencils down on one. Not sure how much time it takes between finalized design and the creation and installation of tooling, but I know it's not quick. The other red flag is Fremont factory. I guess it's possible that they could find some small amount of capacity in the plant to produce Model Y, but Musk said he's targeting 1 million units a year, so this would require a different facility. Tesla could possibly buy an existing plant, but in any case, during the 2018 Q1 financials call, Musk said they may begin to make investments in capital expenditure toward the Model Y program before the end of 2018. These may involve siting of a new factory, but Musk said that they will wait three to six months before announcing a production location and details associated with that. Not sure how you site a factory, build/renovate, set up a new production line, paint shop, etc, and get production started within 12 months. I think summer of 2020 is a lot more realistic, but I stand waiting to be corrected.