Bolt inventory decreasing

Discussion in 'Bolt EV' started by HGTZ, Nov 24, 2017.

  1. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    Always a big drop in sales from December to January!

    Is employee pricing still going on? I thought it ended the first week of january but could be wrong.

    In any case they’ve clearly still been producing Bolts... just calling them 2017s. Dunno why they are waiting to pull the trigger on the new model. But it should be any day now. :)
     
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  2. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    Nevermind my previous post! As of today, 2018 Bolt EVs are available to order. At least from the dealership I mentioned before.

    So you can place a custom order now... or they should be in stock in 3 weeks or so. :)

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1188202491324416&id=936353826509285&__tn__=*s*s-R
     
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  3. HGTZ

    HGTZ New Member

    Bolt MY2018 is finally here!
    Yesterday a couple were listed in Cars.com and today a few more are being listed.
     
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  4. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    According to Jay over at InsideEVs, 2018 MY production started in Orion, MI on Monday, Dec 18th. So, I guess it makes sense that they're arriving now in numbers.
     
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  5. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    I know at the dealers around here, they appear as "inventory" once they are built, have a build date, or are in transit. Often they will show up as inventory 2 weeks or more before they actually arrive at dealerships.
     
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  6. Steven

    Steven New Member

    I tried to lease a Bolt in Eugene Oregon. GM wouldn't pass on the $7500 tax credit savings through the lease. Or not much of it anyway. The dealer wouldn't give me anything for my 15 Leaf SL trade in ether and the car is in excellent condition, has the premium package, and low miles for the year.

    The result was the Bolt was so expensive I couldn't qualify even with great credit. $43000.00 The lease payment would have been almost as much as a stripped model S. This could be why sales are down. I don't think GM wants to sell anymore than the minimum to meet the states requirements of zero emission car sales. It's like GM is trying to kill the electric car all over again. The current administration is promoting fossil fuel, even to the point of putting tariffs on solar panels from China. GM might have a lot of stock holders from oil companies. It hope it isn't so. If Nissan has a good lease on the 2018 Leafs, GM isn't going to sell many Bolts.

    I had the Bolt for 2 weeks.Being there are no CCS quick chargers on the Oregon coast, only Chademo's every 40 to 50 miles, the car wasn't very practical for me. It 9 hours to charge the car on level 2. My leased Kia Soul EV with Chademo every where in western Oregon, is more practical, because once I used the 200 mile range of the Bolt " winter " I would have to charge it on level 2 for hours before I could go any further. It was nice to be able to make some round trips without stoping with the Bolt. But then it would take ours of charging before I could use the car again. I don't have a level 2 at home. I do have an AeroVironment quick charger and a level 2 about a mile from my home in Florence Oregon. I was forced to leave the Bolt at the charging station for 5 or 6 hours, then have my partner drive me back to pick up the Bolt later.

    I'm waiting for the Kia Nero EV. Might try out the new leaf also later. In the mean time, I love the Kia EV. Especial the full glass opening sun roof in summer. It is just awesome at night looking at the stars through the glass roof listening to XM radio over looking the ocean on 101. Range isn't every thing.
     
  7. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Just to add the data point, today there is 2,656 Bolts listed, including a good number of 2018 models.
     
  8. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    GM is still the top EV seller in North America. They're not trying to kill the electric car. Ford is, though. And Mercedes and Fiat-Chrysler would love the market to die. But not GM. GM and Tesla were both about 25% of the EV market last year at ~45k plug-ins each. GM IS the Canadian EV market. They outsell their closest competitor Tesla in Canada 2-1. Most other automakers were just a blip in the NA EV sales charts for 2017.

    The thread is about inventories, not sales. Inventories were down because sales were up in the last quarter of the year. Like all EVs, Bolt sales will be down in January though. Only the Model 3 is likely to rise in sales this month.

    The reason you were able to get a great deal on the Kia is because there is less demand for the vehicle. Like all Kia/Hyundai plugins, they are only selling 100-200 a month.

    However, it sounds like in your situation the Kia Soul is the better car for you so I think you made the right choice. :) If you don't have a place to charge at home or work and there are no CCS near you, owning a Bolt would be a pain. The Kia should be a good car for you since you live in a relatively mild climate. Try to charge on 240v or 120v chargers when you can though. Excessive fast charging is likely to have an influence on the lifespan of the Kia's battery.

    Of course, since you were smart and leased your Soul, if the battery range begins to drop prematurely, you don't need to deal with it. It's the leasing company's problem at that point lol.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2018
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  9. HGTZ

    HGTZ New Member

    If I remember correctly, when the Chevy Bolt just came out, there was an Elon Musk interview where he predicted that GM would only sell about 25,000 cars.
    When asked why, he mentioned something about some carbon credits or other types of credits that would only work if they sold about 25,000 cars.
    I find it a little odd that his prediction came really close to the actual numbers.
    @Domenick, can you look up that interview? I believe it was reported in Insideevs.
     
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  10. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    The concept of the Musk quote was that GM is using the Bolt as a "Carb Credit play" that is to say, the only reason they are making as many as they are is because they intend to sell CARB credits to other automakers. Which they will, of course. Tesla also sells CARB credits to other automakers.

    https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/

    But Musk doesn't like the fact that as other automakers begin making more EVs, he isn't able to sell credits to the other automakers for as high of a price.

    But the thing is, since GM will be selling BEV credits, they will be selling them at the same reduced rate as Tesla. So if Tesla was complaining about the price in 2017, that means GM was selling credits at the same reduced rate.

    Luckily for both of them the ZEV requirements go up significantly for all manufacturers over the next few years. GM and Tesla both have large banks of credits and both sell large numbers of EVs.

    GM sells many times more EVs and PHEVs than the ZEV credits they actually need. Most automakers do not. And Tesla doesn't need ZEV credits since they do not have ICE cars. So there is the potential for GM and Tesla to make more money selling their ZEV and TZEV credits from here on out.

    We discussed this exact issue here at length:

    http://www.insideevsforum.com/commu...the-bolt-ampera-e-supply-demand-problems.145/

    In any case, I personally would not call his number a prediction. LG had already stated several months prior to his statement that they were going to be producing enough packs for a little over 30,000 Bolt/Ampera-es in 2017. That is exactly how many were produced of the 2017 Bolt.

    While there is no guarantee that Musk saw this, I think it is highly likely that he did considering it made every major clean-tech/ev news source.

    https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/

    US Bolt EV sales - 23,300
    Canadian Bolt EV sales - 2,120 Reference
    South Korean Bolt EV sales - 600 Reference
    European Bolt EV sales through November - 1,620 (Estimating December numbers : ~1800) Reference
    Mexico Bolt EV sales - No idea. Random Guess - 150

    Total: 27,790 sold in 2017
    Inventory at the end of December, 2017: ~3,050
    Bolt EVs sold in the last week of December 2016: 580

    Combined production of 2017 Bolt EV/Ampera-e: 31,420
     
  11. HGTZ

    HGTZ New Member

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  12. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I believe this is the post you were referencing: Elon Musk Talks Incentives, Explains Why Chevy Bolt Is CARB Credit Play
     
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  13. Josh Bryant

    Josh Bryant Member

    My memory of Musk’s take on the CARB credit in general was that other OEMs, like GM, would get the full value of the credit because they do not have to sell them and can consume them at “full value” themselves.

    Not sure I fully buy that, they could just buy Tesla’s discounted credits and not go through the hassle of designing a new vehcile.

    Obviously the bigger issue is the upward squeeze on the number of credits for compliance, which starts this year. The real issue for other OEMs: as long as Tesla is around producing and selling cars in volume, it is real hard for the OEMs to argue the rules are too tough and nobody wants plug-ins. Previously they have fought and won that battle (i.e. all the crushed EV1s).
     
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  14. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    I agree, the idea that GM makes "more" money by not paying a fine doesn't hold water to me. Like you said, they could just buy the credits. Tesla probably would prefer (from a business perspective) if less automakers actually made BEVs! The less BEVs out there from OEMs, the more credits Tesla could sell and they could do so at a higher price.

    Toyota bought 35,000 ZEV credits last year from Tesla for instance. Fiat bought 13,000 from Tesla. I'm sure Tesla wishes that they could sell that many credits to all automakers!

    Going foward, more automakers have been selling plug-ins. They'll also be selling credits to one another to fill in ZEV credit gaps. GM sold 6,000 TZEV (PHEV) credits last year to Honda. Honda sold 2,500 ZEV (BEV or FCV) credits to GM.

    But as you said, with the increase of ZEV requirements over the next few years, GM and Tesla should both be able to sell the credits for a higher price. Lots of automakers are still without a volume plug-in in the US.
     
  15. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Seems like the low inventories may have affected sales. I guess we'll know for sure next month, but January's sales numbers (1,177) are down hugely from December (3,227). They is an improvement from January of 2017, but inventory was pretty low then also, I imagine, as production was just getting under way.
     
  16. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Active Member

    Yeah, no surprise that it is down. I was thinking between 1500 and 2000 for both the Bolt and the Model 3. But I was very surprised that the Bolt numbers where down that much since there were still over 2000 2017s in inventory!

    Upon second check of 2017 inventories on Cars.com, half of them are listed as "new" so they likely just arrived or are not even at dealers yet.

    1100 or so remaining are actual inventories. 65% of those inventory are LTs or base models that take much longer to sell. They've probably been sitting on lots for a long time. Many of them are marked down in price into the low 30000s.

    So I guess the low sales numbers makes sense. But is still very disappointing! :(
     
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  17. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Just to add the data point (because I happened to check the inventory situation) the Chevy Bolt has 2,823 examples listed for sale at the moment. I thought it would be higher than that, so hopefully that means they are selling relatively strongly.
     
  18. HGTZ

    HGTZ New Member

    Since early January, Bolt inventory has been hovering around 2,800 units. All MY 2017.
    But, since MY 2018 became available, the total inventory remains steady at 2,800 but the MY2017 count has been decreasing about 20 units per day.
    Now the mix is about 2,000 MY2017 and 800 MY2018.
    I was hoping that MY2018 would replenish the inventory faster to at least 5,000 units. In the Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas area inventory came down from almost 200 cars in November to 60 cars today.
    There is no way to have a good sales number without cars to sell.
     
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  19. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I was just hoping there is a lot of churn happening within the numbers, ie, strong numbers going out as new inventory floods in.
     
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  20. HGTZ

    HGTZ New Member

    I was also hoping that strong sales would be keeping the inventory down. But doesn't look like that is the case.
    I hope Bolt sales can break 2,000 copies in February.
     
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