Tesla will outsell Toyota globally in 2024

All these ICE companies are lying about their sales they seem to be taking cues from BMW's only leadership which is comprised apparently of lying about its sales and trying to hide its destroyed financial state under green washing EV spending. Their green EV spending will be spent on yet another bailout of fossil fuel interests. Seems incredible given the Euro 7 emission rules phase out of ICE for cars, vans, trucks and buses aimed at 2025 but that looks like exactly what it is and it will mean they will only get further behind. Funny, as SMR pointed out that they have to buy credits from Tesla when they desperately need to spend on Green to stay in business and they will have to partner on autonomy with Tesla or get destroyed in law suits and that will be even worse for them than the credits- they have to use their non-existent funds to further strengthen their strongest competitor and when they whine about it they are told they can face a carbon tax instead. All of this will add to their continued de-capitalization problem.

People don't understand that a single giga press can do 1000 cars a day and a single giga press replaces the bulk of the factory and the factories biggest moving part bottleneck. Tesla is moving toward pressing body of the vehicle as well or the whole vehicle. 10 giga presses will be able to do 3.56 million cars a year and Tesla will have that capacity by the end of this year- they will surely have 20 more giga presses before 2024 for about 10.6 million vehicle production capacity per year or more than what Toyota claims it sold last year as the highest selling ICE maker. But I really don't believe Toyota sold even that many cars. A claimed reduction of 9 or 16% in 08 put GM out of business so they are all careful this time to try to fudge their numbers BMW style to claim a reduction of less than that but that game is about to catch up with them. Remember fossil fuels collapsed before covid. Covid was a cover- they are trying to play the same game here but people already don't want their ICE junk just like the world didn't need fossil fuels and it went negative before Covid even they were colluding to reduce demand. Right now a Camry or Accord is about the same cost as a Model 3 up front but more over 5 years for vastly inferior products. Depending on Model year Camry and Accord were in my opinion the best ICE cars ever made in many ways. I've had 3 Camrys and an Accord. But they are completely obsolete against a Model 3. Its worse than Blackberry vs iPhone.

Some might be saying IDRA can't make that many presses in that amount of time. Sure they can- they are just single machines and note Tesla is packing 10 in a single factory even now. But what about cells? Musk said Tesla would sell 20 million cars a year by 2030 and the end of 2024 where the victory occurs will be the halfway mark to 2030 and if he is going to hit that mark he should get a little ahead of the curve. Notice Tesla has been getting more fine grained on its sales data. Guarantee the laggards won't be able to hide their defeat resulting in the acceleration of their de-capitalization.
We've seen this movie before this is iPod against Walkman.

Musk says manufacturing will be the key advantage but it is the AI that builds the factory. The machine that builds the machine will increasingly self-build, self code and self improve This is where we're going. All you need is a single android just think of Data from Star Trek Next Generation. With a single android seed the the whole manufacturing basis could be quickly built up again from raw minerals. Toyota is decades behind. And mindless competition like GM and Ford and all these companies are going to install Palantir as their OS. That is funny, they will get locked out of their own businesses which is laugh your arse off roll around on the floor. Ah, Palantir's borg OS- they are falling all over themselves to get borg(ed.) I.J. Good in the 60s said the last invention we would ever need would be an intelligent machine. Others said it would be our last invention period cause AGI = SI. Its a difference when you have people who can anticipate this stuff because they understand it at the helm. Musk said a year ago ago (if I remember) that we have 5 years left before ignition on AI and he wasn't talking about self driving but the time machine sort of AI, the kind that will build a time computer. We don't need automotive companies anymore all companies will be AI companies in the future as their isn't any other alternative but it still has its winner take all dynamics. And Toyota is still an automotive company- it has no chance. It could get itself borged-ha-ha-ha,ha, ha or it can try to join Tesla which it is doing

So Tesla is set to be the number 1 automaker not just by market cap but also by by sales in 2024. Part of that is because autonomy reduces the number of cars needed by 4x-10x and part of that is because something far worse than an Osborne effect but very similar is occurring where people who are in market for a word processor don't want yesterday's paperweight manual type writer (ICE) with its pet rock resale value. Surprised if Tesla had to sell even 6 million cars in 2024 to beat Toyota so it may tower over Toyota in 4 years with 40% greater sales. Even with state help Toyota will be fighting bankruptcy- even partnering with Tesla probably doesn't prevent this. BMW can't even push its 3 Series anymore because it is a manual type writer with a smoking habit- the purchase of which makes its new owner look totally foolish. BMW can't even bring it up. So when BMWs execs were dead wrong about being able to continue to sell this obsolete junk who were then intentionally misleading? Their share holders or the public or both? Was this allowed because it protected BMW shareholders at the expense of the public?

By 2024 Tesla will be in a position with HVAC and powerwall and solar roof and its cars and autonomy to save consumers and its customers more money than any company in history ever has. Tesla just puts money in their pocket. It is like Tesla's product is more money- like they have a product they sell and you do nothing after purchase but realize an improved quality of life and make money from savings through it. Its an unbeatable value proposition but it is also crazy good communicable good will because it makes the customers feel better and reduces their guilt. What is going to stop this? Is it people like Marry Bara thinking Tesla has to kiss their signet ring and buy an obsolete factory they are flushing down the toilet as part of their pay to play delusional royalism? Note GM buying back its own far off in the future Super Truck at auction for an inflated price- so obvious? What will help keep GM around? Is it GM being able to lobby its way to having politicians whisper to Tesla that it has to ease up on Ford and GM because those two human shield foisters which hide behind people's jobs while literally paying less on average and overall than what workers in Shanghai get which also say their fossil fuel captured collaborator unions are the reason they can't get it done- because those laggards can't compete and their shareholders need to be privileged? No way that would be kept under wraps.

What do people think the Model 2 will do 0-60 in? I think it will be under 3 seconds. It is not like Musk is going to try to ease up on VW or Toyota to make their ICE junk look less obsolete or allow then to sell electrics that don't totally cannibalize their own ICE even more so. The Model 2 or Model "T" for Tesla is the goal it is the real Model 3 with a base of 19K and a full spec vehicle at 25K and its the promise kept and the real effect.