Tesla only needs 9 models to dominate Out: S, X, Model 3 In pipe: Semi (demoed,) Y (design complete), Roadster 2 (demoed,) Pick Up (Musk onus) Referenced (with different tags): smaller Model 3, smaller pick up. So that is: 4 in car line: Roadster 2, S, Model 3, smaller model 3 5 in truck line: Semi, Pick Up, X, Smaller Pick Up, Y So only the smaller version of the 3 and the smaller version of the pick up are left but we know they are shadows of larger vehicles because we know the pattern. Tesla has demonstrated profitable mass production. There will be no competitors for any of these vehicles. Just waiting on track mode for Model 3 and its a promise delivered. Not saying the Tesla chip won't be huge. For comparison in the US Ford makes about 39 vehicles in the US and is about to shave 15 of those vehicles. Honda makes 10 models for the US. Toyota makes about 16 vehicles for the US. Tesla only needs these 9 to upend both consumer and commercial transport. Its semi will even hit rail.
A lot of Americans buy SUVs. The Tesla X costs over $80,000. Jaguar is now selling the I-Pace, again at a cost of over $80,000. A top end Honda Pilot costs about $45,000 and incentives are available. The more than $35,000 difference in price is huge. The average new car price in the USA in 2018 is about $36,000 (Kelly Bluebook). Even with various government tax credits and subsidies, ice powered vehicles are not going away anytime soon, because most Americans simply cannot afford an $80,000 SUV or a $50,000 sedan. There are Jaguar I-Paces in stock at local Jaguar dealerships (Jacksonville & Orlando). As the price of batteries goes down and storage density goes up, EVs will become mainstream. Whether Tesla will be a success like Apple (Ford) or extinct like Atari and Commodore (AMC and Studebaker) is yet to be seen.
Jaguars and Tesla are not in the same league as Honda..just like BMW and Mercedes were. Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
Over the next 3 years Tesla will have: All 9 Models in volume production Full self driving Tesla network Tesla-SpaceX internet Giga factory complete and another in China and another started in the EU Panasonic will help ramp production with investment of its own- Tesla will spend 6 billion on plants over next two years- maybe 9 billion across 3, expect Panasonic will match that, so maybe 21 billion in plant property to build the 9 models. Production in China Capital problems resolved Musk returned to chair Fully sustainable high profitability Customers regularly opting for Tesla network subscriptions in lieu of next auto purchase or buying a Tesla vehicle but also adding roof or solar cells and enough power walls to go off grid essentially Telsa will have intro-ed HVAC line and full cord cutting retrofit or new construction services to go double 0 on cutting out fossil fuels. Also see Tesla convoys hitting rail. Wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla offering locomotive retrofit that replaces diesel generators with its batteries along with green locomotive replacements. Expect Tesla will have done first trial to mars. Might be able to make this stuff take 6 years instead of 3 if the petrol shill gets re-elected (an extreme long shot in my opinion) and (and not just one or the other) petrarchy is able to install an extreme petrol shill as chair in the interim (pretty sure that person gets removed in scandal for that person alone) Expect to see Tesla take legal offensive against smear, manipulation- sabotage - campaign, exposing and getting prosecution. Also expect idiot politically motivated actions by agencies to be ended with scandal for agencies. Further expect credits to be extended and deepened and fossil fuel subsidies to be cut. One more thing about Model 3. Model 3 is the ideal vehicle for the Tesla network. Another crucial realization that the public will be starting to understand in the next 3 yrs is that fossil fuels have never been profitable and never will be and none will ever be able to be claimed competitive or profitable again and that no economy with a fossil fuel energy basis can remain competitive. As they stat to understand the stranded asset nature of all fossil fuels they will also see the 07 collapse and endless string of pre-emptive wars were fossil fuel bailouts. Expect people to start to see that fossil fuels are civil rights 2.0. Also expect to see Key Stone XL injuncted and the contracts revoked and US rejoin Paris accord and make up for lost ground. Expect people to see that Ionity and others are a long tail pipe scam just like hydrogen and Diesel Gate- expect they are rejected also expect attempts to jack up grid connect fees for green house holds is blocked. Expect CA to prevail over Trump EPA criminality. Expect divest movement to pick up exponentially.
Elon said they will not build a car smaller than the M3. His plan to make the dreadnaught totally automated factory has failed. But only temporarily. Model Y will be the next attempt. The plan is to drive the cost down on MY and M3, not make them smaller. Through high automation to keep labour costs down. Through simplification such as the single touch screen for most functions saving many miles of wiring in a typical dashboard. Through advanced batteries such as solid state lithium. Can you imagine when you can buy a new base M3 for $24k or MY for $28k what will happen to the ICE market?
I didn't know that and I am glad to hear it. As I was writing the OP I wondered because we've not heard much lately about a smaller vehicle and the safety might be sub threshold and why not just drive the cost down. I think a lot of Musk's more radical ideas for driving cost down will hit the pick up first but certainly be applied to the base model 3 at some point. The stuff Monroe suggested presumably may already be in the pipe if any of it applied. Musk slowed the roll on Model Y for some of his ideas, but surely he will hit it with the Pick Up or its smaller sibling. So I stand corrected- unless a micro bus is needed like what Toyota and Amazon are working on, only 8 vehicles are needed. Could be some locomotive solutions- or maybe something like the Lilium jet, what else would they need(?)- semi could be adapted to bus- but I hope Tesla keeps the number of vehicle types extremely limited
Theres many reasons to avoid the small vehicle market. 1. Tesla believe they can serve that market with autonomous vehicles. 2. Small vehicles are often low margin, very high volume. A difficult market to crack. 3. Small vehicles can have a negative brand impact. I expect a Tesla may consider it’s a sub compact/hatchback in the medium term only if FSD is significantly delayed.
Tesla can make small/mi size pick-up trucks now using Model 3 platform. They can take out those like Toyota Tacoma, Ford Ranger/F-150, Dodge RAM, Chevy Colorado/Silverado...Model 3 long range motor is dyno tested at around 350-400 whp with insane amount of torque that would put these trucks to shame! Tesla can do it RIGHT NOW! Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
Despite your enthusiasm, I don't think Tesla can build a pick-up yet. Model 3 ramp was painful, and besides taking a year longer than planned also cost a lot more in capital equipment. An extensive system of conveyors was ripped out along with abandoning the "fluffer robot" GA4 (General Assembly line 4 for Model 3, the one in the tent) was hastily built and less automated than GA3, the main assembly line for Model 3. All this results in many more labor hours into each Model 3 than planned. This has been a huge financial setback for Tesla and I feel sure it has pushed back the introduction of the pick-up truck. They are putting all available resources into the Model Y and Semi.
I agreed with you on the production push back. My assessment was on the technology and market potentials. Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
Yeah, I think Tesla would be well advised to focus on goals which are more near-term than the pickup. Heck, they don't even have any place to assemble the Model Y yet. Maybe Tesla will set up a full auto assembly line at Gigafactory 1, but it's very premature to talk about putting the pickup into production when they have only one assembly plant, and that's so maxxed out that they've put partial assembly lines under tents in the parking lot! If there is a second car to be working on, it's the Gen II Roadster. That can be assembled almost anywhere, since it will be made in low numbers, and more hand-assembled than put together on an assembly line. Furthermore, the halo effect from the Gen II Roadster will help generate more demand for those Tesla models already in production.
