Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    802 in Fremont, the city that’s home to the company’s lone assembly plant;

    Going from three to two shifts for Model S and X reduces the head count. Add to that, improved processes on the Model 3 lines, again, fewer assembly line and supporting workers are needed.

    137 at a facility in nearby Lathrop; and

    My understanding is Lathrop handled rework. As the assembly lines become more efficient with fewer mistakes, post processing demands fall.

    78 at its headquarters in Palo Alto

    There is a ratio of management to workers and it makes sense that as the worker count decreases, there should be a decrease in upper layers. But I've also seen in other companies that HQ staff too easily bloats.

    What was not discussed are staffing changes in Reno and the other Tesla facilities. At Reno, we know the security team is (was) being reorganized.

    The key to Tesla's future is efficiency and that means fewer labor hours per product. When Tesla opens the Model Y, pickup, and truck lines, they will have another hiring phase probably augmented by temporary workers. But Tesla will be out from under that big bond, relatively debt free, Elon has a clear path towards exceptional growth.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  2. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Musk said on the call that the ramp had reached the top of the S-curve and guided for a sustained 7,000 Model 3 per week by the end of 2019. I believe that's lower than he had originally forecast in 2017.
     
  3. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    It appears to be a parts distribution center.
     
  4. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    I reduced my short position significantly before Q4 ER in the $286 range. Partly to clear out the old shares, as it got really confusing how the brokerage determined which lots I covered and I could not make sense of the actual profit/loss.

    Reading all the comments in IEV and other EV sites, I think EVs are really taking over. ELon Musk said, demand for Model 3 is just insane.
    This month might see Model 3 beat Toyota Camry and Honda Accord to become the best selling sedan in America. Fingers crossed.

    I am hoping , that will pop the stock some. Then, I will increase my short position depending on the situation and size of the pop.

    PS: OOPS! Scratch that! Looks like Model 3 sales have collapsed.
    I think the author of that IEV article really needs some basic lessons in ENglish. Or look up th emeaning of "dip". A 75% sales drop is a crash, not a dip! :)
    https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-u-s-january-2019/

    And to say that it is because Tesla is shipping to Europe is beyond ridiculous. Twitter it littered with pictures of Model 3 inventory spread over the country's malls, vacant parking lots, rail yards, etc., some freezing to death sitting outside the polar wave.
    In fact, Tesla is SOOO production constrained that it laid off hundreds of workers from Fremont factory!

    Good luck convincing the readers with the "Tesla is production constrained" BS.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    No problem, I picked up more TSLA at $310 and feel pretty good about it. I still have some 'loose change' and put in a buy for more KL.

    My expectation is TSLA will stay under $365, the bond conversion rate to stock. This preserves stock holder equity and Tesla has enough cash reserves to liquidate the bond. Once effectively free of outstanding debt, Tesla will have a free hand to raise capital in Q2-2019 to support expanded production.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I'm too lazy to go back and check, but yeah I think sometime during 2018, Elon lowered his forecast/guidance for Model 3 production, from 10k per week to 7k per week.

    A lowered forecast was inevitable once Elon finally accepted the reality that touchless automobile assembly lines "manned" entirely by robots working at eye-blurring speed was a fantasy, not achievable in the real world... or at least, not with the technology available today.

    In fact, given that Elon was talking about speeding up the production lines to 5x or even 10x their previous speed, it's amazing that the forecast has only dropped from 10k to 7k per week.

    Still, I find it encouraging that Elon is now talking about serious plans to install full automotive assembly lines at Gigafactory 1 for production of the Model Y. Where else could Tesla possibly start Model Y production in less than two years?

     
    Domenick likes this.
  7. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    The Pavlovian response by serial Tesla bashers to the entirely expected and completely predictable drop in domestic Model 3 sales this month is downright depressing. Not because there is the slightest chance that even ill-informed readers will actually swallow this tired old recycled FUD, but because the Tesla bashers actually seem to think that anyone here is either clueless or naive enough to swallow B.S. which has, by now, been regurgitated dozens of times.

    Even someone with sub-normal intelligence should be able to figure out that with production at Tesla's Fremont assembly plant maxed out, any Model 3's sent to Europe and China (and possibly other overseas markets) will result in fewer available for sale domestically.

    That's about has hard to understand as 3 -2 = 1.

     
  8. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    And.. In preparation of Tesla's upcoming bankkruptcy, TSLAQ.ORG is born! :) LOL. This is more interesting than watching superbowl or world cup soccer final.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tesla-shorts-who-take-aerial-pictures-of-parking-lots-launch-web-site.html?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|story|&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    Note: Those parroting "production constrained" should take a peek at tens of thousands of inventory Model 3s lying around the country.
    No wait list. Can get one in minutes.
    Yeah, Elon is right. At the right price ($0 ?), some of that metal would move.

    Before you discard the value provided by TSLAQ, remember, it is them who caught the little detail that Tesla's latest assembly line tweeted out by ELon was just hastily assembled, unfinished Tentaloon. They also caught ELon red handed in his many lies about his work hours and vacation in Europe that he flat out lied about.

    PS: Note for IEV authors. TSLAQ has generously made all their content available for use without seeking permission. So, feel free.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  9. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Howdy y'all.

    I just jumped in at $311 a share. Had hoped to get in below $300 but FX took a few days.

    Wanted to get in before TSLA becomes part of the S&P 500 and the price stabilizes.
     
  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Did somebody revive the "Tesla Death Watch" blog?
    :p o_O :p :confused:

    That was over at (the badly misnamed) "The Truth about Cars" website, and it took... was it 41 or 44 blog posts before that idiot was finally so embarrassed he shut it down?

    Well, here's hoping that tlsaq.org provides as much entertainment... unintentional, of course... as the "Tesla Death Watch" blog did in its day.
    :cool:
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Domain Name: TSLAQ.ORG
    Registry Domain ID: D402200000008538729-LROR
    Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.1and1.com
    Registrar URL: http://registrar.1und1.de
    Updated Date: 2018-12-28T20:11:15Z
    Creation Date: 2018-12-05T21:18:29Z
    Registry Expiry Date: 2019-12-05T21:18:29Z
    Registrar Registration Expiration Date:
    Registrar: 11 Internet SE
    Registrar IANA ID: 83
    Registrar Abuse Contact Email: abuse@1and1.com
    Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: 1.6105601459
    Reseller:
    Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/eppclientTransferProhibited
    Domain Status: serverTransferProhibited https://icann.org/eppserverTransferProhibited
    Registrant Organization: 11 Internet Inc
    Registrant State/Province: PA
    Registrant Country: US
    Name Server: AMY.NS.CLOUDFLARE.COM
    Name Server: KURT.NS.CLOUDFLARE.COM
    DNSSEC: unsigned
    URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form https://www.icann.org/wicf/
    Last update of WHOIS database: 2019-02-02T07:06:13Z​

    Ok, so the phone number answers:

    (610) 560-1459 is a landline number based in USA.
    It is operated by Paetec Communications, Inc..
    Owner Name : ALLENTOWN, PA
    Carrier : Paetec Communications, Inc.
    Country : USA
    International Dialing Format : +16105601459
    National Format : (610) 560-1459​

    Ok, let's see:

    PAETEC COMMUNICATIONS, INC. Current Name %CT Corporation System Dauphin 2823372 Business Corporation Active Foreign

    PaeTec Communications, LLC Current Name %CT Corporation System Dauphin 4359978 Limited Liability Company Active Foreign​

    Ok, next:
    rjwilson$ ping TSLAQ.ORG
    PING tslaq.org (104.18.50.253): 56 data bytes
    64 bytes from 104.18.50.253: icmp_seq=0 ttl=56 time=15.282 ms​

    Google suggests this is a Fortune 500 ... of scammers.

    Whois IP Live Results for 104.18.50.253 -

    IP Address: 104.18.50.253Hide Map »

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    Linked IPv6 Address: IPv62400:cb00:2048:1::6812:32fd
    IP Location: USA
    IP Reverse DNS (Host): 104.18.50.253
    IP Owner: Cloudflare, Inc Cloudflare, Inc
    Owner IP Range: 104.16.0.0 - 104.31.255.255 (1,048,576 ip)
    Other Sites on IP »
    Owner Address: 665 Third Street #207, San Francisco, CA, 94107, US
    Owner Country: USA
    Owner Phone: +1-650-319-8930
    Owner Website: www.cloudflare.com
    Owner CIDR: 104.16.0.0/12
    Whois Record Created: 28 Mar 2014
    Whois Record Updated: 10 Oct 2018
    Reverse IP Lookup / Information on IP (104.18.50.253) -

    IP Blacklist Check:
    Submit IPv4/v6 to Blacklist
    Not Listed in Blacklist
    Websites on this IP Now:
    25 are live websites using this IP (104.18.50.253) NOW -
    firehall.com (#777,581) boxheadbounty.com (#3,344,994) papersofabrahamlincoln.org (#8,124,594) votm.com (#7,610,518) bugisstreet.com.sg (#2,434,427) jualsewakios.com (#6,491,287) nalluran.com (#8,162,459) zacatecastrespuntocero.com (#2,568,113) sunsky.me (#7,478,686) seedoff.tv (#1,713,007)
    ... ... ... Found: 25 websites on this ip ... ... more »
    see also: All websites in this IP Range »
    Websites on this IP Before:
    13 live websites used this IP (104.18.50.253) Before -
    zeeet.com (#2,596,682) used IP on 27 September 2018
    nebulads.com (#5,382,862) used IP on 06 April 2017
    socbg.com (#155,197) used IP on 30 March 2017
    reimage.com (#312,052) used IP on 07 April 2016
    ... ... ... Found: 13 websites ... ... more »
    Not Working Websites on IP:
    1 not working website. This IP 104.18.50.253 is the last known IP address for site below -
    cloudmp3.com.br (#5,631,872) site work on 17 January 2018
    Nameservers on this IP: No nameservers
    Web Browser/s on this IP: Unknown
    OS on this IP: Unknown
    ASN: AS13335 , AS174 , AS18450 , AS203898 , AS23352 , AS36351
    Whois Original Data on IP 104.18.50.253 - [hide/show]

    Information from whois://whois.arin.net:43

    NetRange: 104.16.0.0 - 104.31.255.255
    CIDR: 104.16.0.0/12
    NetName: CLOUDFLARENET
    NetHandle: NET-104-16-0-0-1
    Parent: NET104 (NET-104-0-0-0-0)
    NetType: Direct Assignment
    OriginAS: AS13335
    Organization: Cloudflare, Inc. (CLOUD14)
    RegDate: 2014-03-28
    Updated: 2017-02-17
    Comment: All Cloudflare abuse reporting can be done via https://www.cloudflare.com/abuse
    Ref: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/ip/104.16.0.0
    OrgName: Cloudflare, Inc
    OrgId: CLOUD14
    Address: 101 Townsend Street
    City: San Francisco
    StateProv: CA
    PostalCode: 94107
    Country: US
    RegDate: 2010-07-09
    Updated: 2018-10-10
    Comment: All Cloudflare abuse reporting can be done via https://www.cloudflare.com/abuse
    Ref: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/CLOUD14
    OrgTechHandle: ADMIN2521-ARIN
    OrgTechName: Admin
    OrgTechPhone: +1-650-319-8930
    OrgTechEmail: rir@cloudflare.com
    OrgTechRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/ADMIN2521-ARIN
    OrgAbuseHandle: ABUSE2916-ARIN
    OrgAbuseName: Abuse
    OrgAbusePhone: +1-650-319-8930
    OrgAbuseEmail: abuse@cloudflare.com
    OrgAbuseRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/ABUSE2916-ARIN
    OrgNOCHandle: NOC11962-ARIN
    OrgNOCName: NOC
    OrgNOCPhone: +1-650-319-8930
    OrgNOCEmail: noc@cloudflare.com
    OrgNOCRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/NOC11962-ARIN
    RTechHandle: ADMIN2521-ARIN
    RTechName: Admin
    RTechPhone: +1-650-319-8930
    RTechEmail: rir@cloudflare.com
    RTechRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/ADMIN2521-ARIN
    RAbuseHandle: ABUSE2916-ARIN
    RAbuseName: Abuse
    RAbusePhone: +1-650-319-8930
    RAbuseEmail: abuse@cloudflare.com
    RAbuseRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/ABUSE2916-ARIN
    RNOCHandle: NOC11962-ARIN
    RNOCName: NOC
    RNOCPhone: +1-650-319-8930
    RNOCEmail: noc@cloudflare.com
    RNOCRef: https://rdap.arin.net/registry/entity/NOC11962-ARIN

    Saturday 2 February 2019, 02:07:34

    Known Websites on IP - 104.18.50.253

    No Web Site Website IP Address Web Hosting Company / IP Owner Web Hosting / Server IP Location Record Update Time World Site Popular Rating
    1 instawload.com 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 26 Jan 2019, 00:49 # 55,322
    2 firehall.com 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 28 Jan 2019, 02:12 # 777,581
    3 seedoff.tv 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:11 # 1,713,007
    4 studiolegalepellegriniquarantotti.it 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:14 # 2,283,619
    5 bugisstreet.com.sg 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:25 # 2,434,427
    6 zacatecastrespuntocero.com 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:12 # 2,568,113
    7 boxheadbounty.com 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:34 # 3,344,994
    8 jd-akihabara.ru 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:24 # 3,600,021
    9 aa922.com 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:39 # 3,848,887
    10 freeebooksszd6eqa.cf 104.18.50.253 Cloudflare, Inc USA 29 Jan 2019, 00:34 # 4,632,740
    Total: 25 records (show first 10 records only) View All Records »

    Websites IP Address Change History for IP - 104.18.50.253

    No Website Old IP Address was Host was Date when site was using this IP World Site Popular Rating was
    1 alladswork.com 104.18.50.253 104.18.50.253 20 Oct 2018 # 38,240
    2 zeeet.com 104.18.50.253 104.18.50.253 27 Sep 2018 # 2,596,682
    3 104.18.50.253 104.18.50.253 25 Sep 2018 # 7,407,558
    4 videsta.com 104.18.50.253 104.18.50.253 17 Sep 2018 # 4,906,198
    5 headnone.ml 104.18.50.253 104.18.50.253 12 Aug 2018 # 5,893,365
    Total: 29 records (show first 5 records only) View All Records »

    Not Working Websites on IP - 104.18.50.253

    No Not Working Website Last Known Website IP Address Country Host was Date when site used this IP World Site Popular Rating was
    1 cloudmp3.com.br 104.18.50.253 USA 104.18.50.253 17 Jan 2018 # 5,631,872
    Total: 1 record

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    Quick access to this page: https://myip.ms/104.18.50.253

    104.18.50.253, USA - Reviews and Comments




     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    So looking at the InSideEV sales numbers:
    Code:
    U.S. EV SALES      Dec 18 Jan 19 change
    Chevrolet Bolt EV*   1412    925 66%
    Chevrolet Volt*      1058    675 64%
    Honda Clarity PHEV*  2770   1192 43%
    Nissan LEAF          1667    717 43%
    Toyota Prius Prime   2759   1123 41%
    BMW 530e*            1363    376 28%
    Tesla Model S*       3250    875 27%
    Tesla Model 3*      25250   6500 26%
    Tesla Model X*       4100    950 23%[/FONT]
    

    • To maximize the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit, Tesla pulled forward as many sales as possible to Dec 2018 from Jan 2019. This impacted all models and will take 45-60 days, the normal production delay, to equal out. Then it will happen again between Jun 2019 and Jul 2019. The last will be Dec 2019 and Jan 2020.
    • We also know Tesla is shipping the premium, high profit margin, Model S/X/3 to relatively neglected, volume markets of Asia and Europe. This puts a significant Tesla inventory in a 3-6 week shipping queue. But the higher margins will improve Q1-2019 earnings.
    • BMW 530e* has no known justification for a significant drop in sales.
    • The Japanese, 41-43%, probably reflects the seasonal sales dip.
    • Chevy had the least dip, 64-66%, which is curious. Is Chevy less impacted by seasonal sales? I would have expected the Volt to be going through 'end of model' clearance sale but the Bolt is curious. Perhaps a sales push before the Kona EV cleans their clock?
    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Serial Tesla bashers have always (since 2012) pulled numbers from cherry-picked weeks or months or quarters to support their constant line of B.S. that demand for Tesla cars has "fallen off a cliff" or to claim that Tesla is in serious financial trouble and headed for collapse or bankruptcy. The only thing that has changed over time, regarding the anti-Tesla FUD, is which particular set of cherry-picked figures they're using.

    The fact that TeslaInvestors is merely regurgitating the same ol' same ol' cabbage that has been disproven time and time again, pretty conclusively shows he knows that what he's claiming here is B.S.

    Or, to put it more succinctly: Nuthin' to see here. Move along, move along!

     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Every quarterly report lets us see how Tesla is doing. Between these Tesla reports, 3d party stories have to be taken with a 'grain of salt.' This includes the InSideEVs sales numbers which are another 3d party report, not an SEC recorded, business record from Tesla and its officers.

    As for our local Tesla critic and his sources, well they sure are clumsy. They remind me of 'the sky is falling' and then the next quarterly report comes out. They keep missing the point ... customer satisfaction:
    • performance - Teslas beat gas cars costing 2-3x more and shame turtle EVs
    • charging network - provided by Tesla, widespread, fast, and maintained
    • multiple models - for your price-performance range
    Bob Wilson
     
  15. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    One thing that genuinely puzzles me is TeslaInvestor's obsession with reports about how many cars Tesla has in holding lots. The various attempts, last year, to forecast either demand or sales for Tesla cars based on such reports, proved to be an embarrassing failure for those involved. Their predictions were wildly wrong.

    Yet here TeslaInvestors is, still pursuing the same fruitless activity. Well, I guess everybody needs a hobby!
    :rolleyes:
     
    Domenick likes this.
  16. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    That's great! What is the Nurburgring records for Tesla model s/x/3? Here are the best 10 for production cars. Other non production cars have even better records.
    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-...-lap-times-2019-quickest-cars-and-lap-records

    10. Lexus LFA Nurburgring Package - 7:14.64s
    9. Chevrolet Corvette C7 Z06 - 7:13.90s
    8. Gumpert Apollo Sport - 7:11.57s
    7. Mercedes AMG GT R - 7:10.92s
    6. Nissan GT-R Nismo - 7:08.59s
    5. Dodge Viper ACR - 7:01.03s
    4. Porsche 918 Spyder (Weissach Package)
    3. Lamborghini Huracan Performante - 6:52:01s
    2. Porsche 911 GT2 RS - 6:47.3s
    1. Lamborghini Aventador SVJ - 6:44.97s



    Have you heard of "EV limp mode" ?

    Tip: There is more to performance cars than just 1/4 mile drag races.

    Tip2: My hydrogen car charges orders of magnitude faster than any Tesla supercharger. I mean, yeah. It's like , yea, insane fast. Off the hook fast.
    I can't express..er.. in words how fast it is. It is is like if Tesla superchargers is 110V, 1A, this is like, yeah, megavolts. Yeah, it's that fast. It 's like exponentially faster than any Tesla supercharger on earth or anywhere else. Period. It's like, umm, TERAfast.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    There are about 10 times more 1/4 mile drag races and that is not counting traffic lights turning green. For grins and chuckles, I did a YouTube search for "Tesla vs" and stopped counting after 30. Meanwhile, a boat load of Teslas are headed to Europe and hopefully we'll see some updates on Nurburgring and a few other European tracks. But even my BMW i3-REx has fun at lights.

    This afternoon, my wife, her three dogs, wheelchair, and I were at the light headed East from Jordan Lane at the on ramp to I-65. Next to me was a BMW 3xx sedan, loud pipes, music, and attitude. We sat quietly there until the light changed and I left him in ~100-150 yards and was at 80 mph at the bottom to merge into traffic. I don't do it daily but at least a couple of times each week.
    Do you even have time to pee? The perfect refueling or charging time should match biology needs. Refueling or recharging is also a chance to pee, poop, stretch, grab a snack, or just enjoy being where you're at. Now if fast refueling 'cranks your tractor':
    [​IMG]
    Notice this is full service refueling like Oregon and New Jersey where owners are not allowed to refuel their own cars. Here is how NASCAR does it:


    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  18. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    And a perfectly ordinary gasmobile "charges" even faster. Ho hum.

    Next you'll be going into paroxysms of ecstasy bragging about how easy it is to turn the steering wheel on your car.
    :rolleyes:
     
  19. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Whaat? Are you telling us the Teslas can't turn the wheels?

    But yeah, I can change the temperature of the ac much quicker than the model 3. And start/stop the rain wipers pretty fast too.
    It's like, umm, it's like.. Model 3 owners can't even fathom how quick and easy it is for me to adjust the rain wipers. Or the radio channel for that matter.
    I mean, really, I don't have to fiddle with the single flickering screen and accidentally put the car in park while driving when trying to adjust the wipers.
    I mean, huh huh.. who doesn't love rain wiper stalks? It's insane how Honda has invented the rain wiper stalks. It's like the most innovative work of sculpture, that you have to see it to believe it. Fascinating mechanism how it work with just one nudge of a finger.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  20. marshall

    marshall Active Member

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