Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Because of dubious past postings, this is the right thread for this source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230919-tesla-growth-narrative-quietly-winds?page=2
    Code:
    |               | Prod'n | Sales  |  ATP   |  Rev $M  |
    | Q3 Total Auto | 80,142 | 83,775 | 72,802 | $6,099 M |
    | Q4 Total Auto | 80,300 | 84,800 | 69,879 | $5,962 M |
    
    We'll probably know the Tesla production numbers by Friday. However the ATP (average transaction price) has a lot of assumptions.

    Omitted are the likely improvements in production efficiency. We'll see that in the Q4 report in the net profit. The vehicle margins will tell.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    http://ir.tesla.com/index.php/static-files/f732b430-ef16-4f65-9617-033599efb109

    Interesting, that Elon no longer signs these filings. Only Deepak's signature is on there.

    I saw a lot of noise in the press about blockbuster Model 3 sales. Lost in that noise is the fact that it's barely 2 quarters of 4K to 5K cars a week production, and Tesla has run out of all US res holders well before Q4. It said, 75% of these 63K didn't have reservations. So what happened to the res holders?

    Recall that last year, Elon said, there is 0 doubt, Tesla will reach 10K a week of Model 3 production bu this year. Well, guess what? There aren't any takers if Tesla would produce at that rate. Already, Tesla gave free upgrades to people who had a Model 3 of different types to make their numbers. There are also reports of $10K to $11k discounts on Model 3 to move some metal.

    Next quarter will be dismal. I covered some of my shorts today. Last few weeks have been so volatile, and I have been missing out on covering on dips and shorting again on the bounces. So I decided I will take today's dip to cover some.
    Still, a big danger of failing to pay the $900M coming due next month. With huge discounts and price cuts etc., I doubt Tesla will generate any cash to pay back the $900M debt. That was just another bluff from Elon to pump the stock.
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    We'll see that in the Q4 report in 4-6 weeks.
    WHERE! That bring the mid-range, Model 3 into the $35k range. Seriously, where!
    That is the wisest thing I've seen.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Domenick likes this.
  4. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Doug Kass is a well known figure on thestreet.com. My guess is the $10k was on the higher end Model 3 (performance), not the basic MR model.
    doug_kass_10k_discount.JPG
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Thanks!

    I already knew traditional auto dealership prices were softer at the end of the month. Apparently Tesla prices are softest at the end of the quarter. GOOD TO KNOW!

    BTW, I just read the complete Twitter thread and didn't find:
    • Original price of Model 3
    • Which version and options
    Do you have those details?

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  6. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Please see my updated reply. My guess is, $10k discount was for the higher end model 3 cars. Here is the tweet link. Doug doesn't say which model.
    https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1080459126063448064
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    That matches my reading of the thread. So if it is $10K on a rear-wheel drive, Model 3, with full function auto-pilot and one of the discontinued colors, I wouldn't consider it a great deal. Those typically cost North of $60k so $10k off would bring it down to $50k.

    See if you can find which Tesla store it was. The reason is we find there are significant discounts on the Prius Prime depending upon where it is bought. I drove mine 1,200 miles home by purchasing it in Rhode Island.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Why are you still here, dude? Are you still losing money on a TSLA "short" investment? Seriously?

    It's over. Tesla won; you short-selling FUDsters lost. If you insist on continuing to post this nonsense, then find some coal-rolling forum where your Tesla bashing might be appreciated.

    But to answer your accusation pretending to be a question:

    1. Tesla has stopped taking domestic reservations, altho I think it continues to take them overseas. Obviously this means the number of domestic reservations will drop over time, as they are used up.

    2. There are still a large number of domestic Model 3 reservation holders waiting for a better buying opportunity; a Standard Range version, or the end to the $5k PUP (Premium Upgrade Package) being mandatory, or Tesla offering leases for the Model 3. Tesla didn't offer leases for the first few years of Model S sales, and it looks like they will repeat that pattern with the Model 3.

    Now, are you going to pretend that someone as deeply interested in Tesla's finances didn't already know all that? If so, then you're neglecting your "due diligence" as an investor. Hopefully, for the sake of you and your family, your skills at investing are better -- much better -- than the very poor ability you've demonstrated as a serial Tesla basher. :rolleyes:

     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Is that just more FUD? The only "free upgrades" I've seen reported (after Elon clamped down on some Tesla sales reps giving unauthorized "special offers" to certain customers, during one end-of-quarter sales push) are for free use of the Supercharger network. A nice carrot, but it doesn't cost Tesla much.

    A lot of things are "reported" by the anti-Tesla pravduh crowd. Few of them are actually true... as you well know, "TeslaInvestors". In fact, if you repeat it, then that alone indicates it's most likely not true.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
    bwilson4web likes this.
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    . . . this is the right thread for this source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230919-tesla-growth-narrative-quietly-winds?page=2
    Code:
    | | Prod'n | Sales | ATP | Rev $M |
    | Q3 Total Auto | 80,142 | 83,775 | 72,802 | $6,099 M |
    | Q4 Total Auto | 80,300 | 84,800 | 69,879 | $5,962 M |
    | Q4 actual     | 86,555 | 90,700 | <TBD>  | <TDB>    |

    We'll probably know the Tesla production numbers, NOW.
    Bob Wilson
     
  11. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Covered another 30% of my total short position today. Was trying to cover at 297.50. But the stock is so volatile, by the time I could place my order, it was already at 298.xx :( Now I am all set to short more if it pops with the earnings expectations or some other positive rumor/leak from Elon to pump up the stock.
    I hope the seesaw pattern of Tesla stock price continues for eternity for all to enjoy. :)
     
  12. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Tesla Is Now America's Number One Premium Automotive Company, Outsells BMW, Lexus In Q4
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanba...ompany-outsells-bmw-lexus-in-q4/#222e94d94af3

    What a joke. As if one month aided by expiring govt handouts and pent up demand means anything.
    As usual. Elon was quick to tweet this out. He never misses any opportunity to pump the stock. :) Good, good. Bring it on Elon. I am ready to short some more if you can give a pop to the stock.

    Hey Elon, how about retweeting this video to show your fanboys how the car buying experience at your stealerships is? LOL. People aren't interested in your farting gimmicks. They would rather have a working car delivered per their contract. Is that too much for a genius rocket scientist to deliver? Get some training from Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Volvo, Subaru, Mitsubishi etc. if you need it. But stop scamming your customers. :)


    Here is Tesla Model S, the best selling car in Norway (for only a month; now it is way down in the charts.) Mission accomplished.
    https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-was-best-selling-car-in-norway-for-september
    Tesla Model S Was Best-Selling Car In Norway For September
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2019
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Clearly, learning has not taken place.

    * * * * *

    Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
    2012: 2650
    2013: 22,300
    2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
    2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
    2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
    2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)
    2018: 245,240 (+142%)

    "To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined."

     
  14. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Well, it didn't take long to tear apart that fallacious article! Surely, Elon being a genius engineer cum scientist would've known that the article he just tweeted compared apples to oranges? The Forbes article says:
    And here is the takedown of that lie (#12345..).
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-tweet-tesla-isn-t-the-no-1-premium-carmaker
    Elon Musk Is Wrong. Tesla Isn't America’s No. 1 Premium Carmaker
    PS: OK, I take my hats off to Sir Elon for doing the right thing in this case. It seems, he deleted his retweet of this article. Or may be Tesla tweet team got to him. His tweets are supposed to be checked now, since the SEC agreement took effect last week.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    In 4-6 weeks we'll have the 2018 Q4 financials. Back of the envelope looks promising.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, that rather glaring error was pointed out in comments posted to the InsideEVs News article covering that.

    How embarrassing for Forbes... not to mention for InsideEVs, which copied Forbes' error.

    BTW -- Congratulations, "TeslaInvestors", in finding something that's actually true to comment about. You might try doing that more often, as the rest of us do.
    o_O
     
  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Actually, from what Elon said in the Recode Decode podcast interview, nobody is checking his tweets before he sends them out. According to what he said there, it's just that he's going to try to be more careful when it comes to material statements about Tesla's business.

    I predict he's going to get into trouble again. Tesla's board really should put their foot (feet?) down and demand that all his tweets be checked by someone else before posting. Just my opinion, of course.

     
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I figure he shares the Twitter login credentials with a team of twitter 'keepers' who monitor his posts 24x7. Each gets reviewed by a paralegal training in what is safe and not so safe.

    Better still, a 'twitter' front end so Elon sees all but posts go to a 24x7 review team. With a short delay, passed on or held for 'clarification.'

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
  20. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    *Shrug* That's certainly how Tesla should handle Elon's Twitter account. But he said otherwise, pretty clearly, and doubled down on it when the interviewer (the Recode Decode podcast host) questioned the wisdom of him continuing to tweet without oversight after the relatively heavy wrist-slap the SEC gave him.

    Of course it's possible that Elon's vanity simply doesn't allow him to admit he now has "minders", but absent evidence to the contrary, I'm going to assume that what Elon said is true.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019

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