Internal combustion bans

You can see the tide changing already here in the UK, diesel engined vehicles are looked upon as public enemy number 1 and I can see the change happening well before 2040 or people are going to be left with very expensive diesel cars nobody wants.....unless Ukraine buys them as they're buying the VW dieselgate vehicles in droves at bargain prices. https://www.rt.com/business/410024-ukraine-buy-volkswagen-rejected-us/

 

The issue becomes that with Wicked-Fast-Charging (WFC), if you want to make these broadly available... maybe not as much as gas stations but enough to be usable by millions... you're going to need some serious juice at the station site. It's one thing to pump out some level 2 and maybe even 3. But getting to these levels for the masses is an issue.

350kwh is wildly high. An electric clothes dryer is 5 on the high end. So you have 70 dryers for 1 car. If you line up 5 you have 350 clothes dryers churning away at once. That's a lot of load. And while you don't usually see 10 cars on even a super charger at full bore now, you will on highways for sure if everyone were electric. This does not even get to a point of pretty fast charging of like 10 minutes for 80%. If you're getting the masses to EVs you can't expect everyone to find 30-60 minutes extra each time they need to charge. That is not a reasonable expectation imo.

A problem that can be solved, but it's not just as simple as slap in some wicked-fast-chargers.

 

this is partially not true since some of the declarations have been to ban the sale of ice only cars after that date, and not necessarily to ban their usage.
but overall, it will likely be a moot point since it will be untenable and then turn into a tax - governments like tax revenue more than anything else.....

 

i am hoping that by 2040 california has either come to its senses, or become a separate country. so tired of that state.

 

It's a good thing you have the freedom to not live there if you don't want to!

But the US would be in a really bad way if Texas or California ever became their own separate countries! And the citizens of both states know that. I'm guessing that's why people living in these two states often whine so loudly and threaten secession when they don't like what's going on in Washington.

I'd never consider moving to Cali but I'm glad it's there for me to visit! And I'm glad they push for EVs both with a carrot and a stick! (But at least here in Texas we are finally bringing back the EV rebate carrot.)

 

Won't happen

 

Forgot to add... The swap will not be anywhere near complete by that point. But it may be so far in it's way that a ban is unnecessary.

 

I'm pretty sure you mean 350 kW, not 350 kWh. kW is a measure of power; kWh is a measure of energy. Mixing up the units is like confusing gallons of gasoline with horsepower.

If you compare residential power use to what I call ultra-fast-charging, and you're calling "wicked fast charging", then certainly it seems like a lot. But compared with industrial power use or even the amount of power that large commercial buildings draw, 1-2 MW (megawatts) simply isn't that much. Large skyscrapers sometimes draw more than 10 MW, and a single electric induction furnace can draw up to 42 MW.

Now, that's not to say that high power hookups will be cheap, or available anywhere. You want more power, you're going to pay more. Tesla may be guaranteeing 7¢ per kWh for Tesla Semi Trucks using Tesla Megachargers, but we can be pretty sure future BEV drivers charging at ultra-fast-chargers are going to be paying appreciably more than that. As they say: Convenience is worth paying for. Slow charging at home or at work should continue to be cheap, but ultra-fast-charging on the road is going to be closer to paying for gasoline. Fortunately, most people won't have to pay for that very often.

 

agreed on the 'practically meaningless' at least on the promise side of things, as well as the shift likely being well under way. but I feel that words alone hold a lot of weight in the minds of the masses. look at people who believed what trump was saying would come to fruition. likewise with many of the automotive giants having to answer to shareholders who might very well be looking at the long game and feeling like every potential hindrance to their bottom-line being bloated is of importance ...a bunch of little shareholder voices asking what the automakers are going to do to adjust - let alone the suits feeling a need to take notice - I feel these moves are crucial to the right now regardless of quantifiable impact.

 

I don't understand how motorists in this country (UK) aren't hammering down the doors of EV dealerships, I had the misfortune today of having to fill up on the motorway services, petrol was £1.38/litre x by 4.55 (UK gallon) =£6.28 / $8.40

 

Yeah, I sometimes use an Ecotricity charger at a services, and I have noticed when leaving the services that the diesel was £1.39.9- the somewhat perverse twist being that just a mile or so off the M1 there, there's a Sainsbury's with diesel at £1.14.9.

 

I've just been reading China has banned 553 car models due to bad fuel economy, amongst the list of banned models are Audi, Mercedes & Chevrolet. that's another nail in the coffin of ICE vehicles. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1114516_china-will-end-production-of-553-car-models-due-to-fuel-economy

 

Politicians in first-world countries are mostly just giving lip service to banning ICE vehicles. Contrariwise, the Chinese government is actually taking steps to do so! I'm not ready to chant "Go Chinese Communist government!", because it's a totalitarian regime, trampling its citizens and denying them human rights. But it's certainly true that when a totalitarian government decides to make something happen, then things move in that direction pretty quickly!

That point was also made in Frederik Pohl's novel Chernobyl, a novelization of the events surrounding that disaster. Centralized authority made it possible for the Soviets to react very quickly and decisively in response to the disaster.

 

Looks like the diesel car sales slide will continue this year in the UK where new diesel car sales figures fell by 17% in 2017.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42615559
The worst is yet to come for diesel cars which will see their sales continue to plunge, a study has warned.

 

I was shocked and disappointed when diesel car sales in Europe fell only ~20% in the months after the Dieselgate scandal broke. But I'm very, very glad to learn that sales are continuing to drop on a long-term basis. That is the best way to punish auto makers for the fraud.

 

I've just been having a look at the full list of banned cars and there are a lot of top brand names on it, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, Chevrolet etc. http://ecovis-beijing.com/en/blog-en/articles/production-ban-2018

 

Looks like there will be no hiding place for diesel cars shortly, The German court ruled today Tuesday 27th February that cities can impose driving bans on diesel cars to combat air pollution, a decision that could affect millions of drivers and the country's powerful auto industry. https://www.rt.com/business/419939-diesel-ban-germany-pollution/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

 

And, California is going to permit fully autonomous vehicles on their roads. Once countries permit this, it will only be about ten years before we have Transport as a Service as advocated by Tony Seba.