Tesla Model Y - maY replace mY beloved Clarity...

Really, in the same font size? The examples I saw posted had the real price posted at the bottom of the web page, easily missed, in a smaller font size. Now, if Tesla has changed things so it posts the real price in the same font size right alongside the "estimated savings" price, then I'll remove my objection. But if so, then Tesla has made recent changes to how it displays its prices on its configuration pages.

The German government has demanded that Tesla stop displaying deceptive pricing on its web pages. I'd be quite happy if Tesla has, or will, change its practice to conform to Germany's demand for all would-be Tesla car buyers... not just for German buyers.

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Here's my conundrum, quite possibly based on bad or incomplete information.

A common driving scenario for me is to travel to Minneapolis / St. Paul, spend the day, and return home. It's about 100 miles one way. I'm used to planning fuel reserves for airplanes, and 100 miles plus driving in the city plus 100 miles does not seem to fit with a 300-mile range that could be seriously compromised by a Minnesota winter. If experience showed me that the 300-mile range really was reliably 250 miles even under bad conditions, I'd feel better, but still not completely comfortable. Invoking the aviation analogy again ... this is why I am not a glider pilot - I like that big fan spinning in front. So I bought a PHEV, not a BEV.

If the charging system is more well-developed than it appears, perhaps my fears are unfounded. I just don't see a whole lot of charging stations in rural Minnesota.

 

I think that's going to prove to be much too optimistic in real-world use. I'm a strong fan of Tesla, but sometimes the level of hype coming from the company is downright embarrassing. The claim for "1000 miles per hour" of added range when charging is certainly an example.

If you look at the graph of the rate of charging, the Model 3 tapers off pretty quickly. That 250 kW charging rate, supposedly "1000 miles per hour" of charging, probably lasts for only 3-4 minutes, and only if the battery is nearly empty at the start.


(source)

If you think you're going to charge from 10-80% or even 20-80% in 10 minutes, you're almost certainly going to be quite disappointed. My guess is that even a 15 minute charge from 20-80% will happen only under optimal conditions.

 

A BEV's battery pack has to be made only once, for the lifetime of a car. Contrariwise, a tank full of gasoline has to be made several hundred times for the lifetime of a gasmobile, or even more than 1000 if the car is kept operational long enough (that is, significantly longer than the average of ~7 years).

There is no question that BEVs are considerably less polluting, and have considerably less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared over the lifetime of the vehicle. That is, when comparing cars of equivalent power... and not cherry-picking a very small, underpowered, very fuel- efficient gasmobile to compare to a large, high-performance luxury BEV.

From the Union of Concerned Scientists: "Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave (2015)"

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I think you're being entirely sensible. If I lived in rural Minnesota, I'd be quite unlikely to buy a BEV, too; Tesla or otherwise.

It's much too early in the EV revolution for BEVs to work for everyone. I don't think you're a good candidate. Especially not with Minnesota weather; you probably have far too many sub-zero days in Winter, when a BEV's range would take quite a hit.

If you drive a Clarity PHEV, that was probably a wise choice.

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There are people whose location and lifestyle are a good fit for driving a BEV (Tesla or otherwise), and there are those whose location and lifestyle don't.

Sad to say, I think you're one of the latter. Keep in mind it's still early in the EV revolution. Give it a few more years; wait for BEVs with longer range, and BEVs not taking such a huge hit to range on bitterly cold winter days. There were reports from the recent "polar vortex" deep freeze in the USA that some Model 3 drivers were experiencing as much as 40% range loss... even a few up to 50% loss! I think we can put that down to extreme conditions, but if you live as far north as Michigan, then you are likely to experience those bitterly cold winter days a lot more than most of us do.

Now, that's not to say it's impossible to make it work. I remember a report some years ago from a Norway Model S owner who said he got only 20% range loss in winter. If you're careful to precondition your car on cold mornings, to warm up the battery pack, and if you never leave your car sitting outside for hours on a bitterly cold winter day, then you -- like that proud Norwegian Model S driver -- may not experience more than a 20% range loss on even cold Michican winter days. But that 20% range loss is probably as much an outlier as those citing a 50% range loss in "polar vortex" conditions.

Let's be honest here: Gasmobiles and PHEVs are more practical and more versatile than BEVs, because they're not nearly so limited by driving range or by being able to drive in bitterly cold weather (well... assuming it's not so cold you can't even start your gasmobile!). BEVs have improved significantly since 2008 when Tesla first started selling the Roadster, and they will continue to improve significantly over the next decade or two.

In the days of the Ford Model T, motorcars weren't for everyone. The phrase "Get a horse!" was heard a lot in those days. Arguably, it wasn't until the later Ford Model A that the motorcar fit nearly everyone's lifestyle. (It's been said, and I think with a lot of justification, that driving a Model T is a lot more like driving a tractor than driving a modern car.) Of course, the improvement in roads in the intervening years helped a lot, too. The Model T created a very significant demand for paved highways and paved major roads going everywhere.

Similarly, BEVs today aren't for everyone. In another human generation or so, BEVs should be fully as capable as gasmobiles are today. In the meantime, let's face facts and admit that today's BEVs aren't practical for everyone. Not even Tesla's BEVs.

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Reality check:

Tesla revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2018 was $7.226B, a 119.75% increase year-over-year.​

(source)

Tesla has not yet made an annual net profit (it will likely do so this year), but only because it's reinvesting most of its profits into growing the company. It's great that Tesla is being run so very well! And it's not merely sad, it's downright horrifying that the Wall Street "greed is good" philosophy has become so pervasive that a company which prudently invests its profits into future growth, rather than paying dividends to stockholders, is routinely mis-characterized as "losing money"!

Tesla doesn't lose money. I assure you, its accountants know exactly where every dollar is spent!

 

That's about like asking "How long is a piece of string?"

Short answer: Between 20% and (in extreme conditions) 50%. Based on reading many, many reports from actual Tesla drivers, I think around 30% range loss on bitterly cold days would be average. The phrase YMMV -- Your Mileage May Vary -- certainly applies here.

There are many variables. How mild or harsh is the climate where you live? Do you park your car in a garage every night? Are you able to leave it plugged in overnight, whether or not you park it in a garage? (Leaving it plugged in a setting the car to precondition, heating up the battery pack and the car's cabin to room temperature before leaving, helps a lot!) Do you have to let the car sit outside for hours before driving home, as those who work for a living usually do? Are you one of those dedicated souls who would rather drive wearing mittens and using electrically heated socks than turn on the car's cabin heater, or are you a normal soul who thinks that there is a good reason why cars have a cabin heater?

All these factors will significantly affect any BEV's range in bitterly cold conditions, so there isn't any "One size fits all" answer.

 

Munchkins, not dogs.

But seriously, Tesla can't realistically claim the Model Y seats 7 adults. Everybody who has seen or set in those back seats say they are too small for full-sized adults. Realistically, the Model Y with the optional rear seats will seat 5+2, just like the Tesla Model S with the optional "tail gunner" seats.

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Yes it is absolutely unreasonable. It would destroy my ski season for one thing!

 

I don't know if this point has been brought up, but I think much of the deep suspicion of Musk in the investment community is because of superficial judgments against the Musk persona. He acts in the way I imagine that Wolfgang Mozart, the very great music genius, presented himself. He simply does not talk nor act like a conservative banker.

 

You mean, the $920 million in bonds that Tesla has already paid off?

As usual, reports of Tesla's financial difficulties have been greatly exaggerated by those who want to see Tesla fail.

Tesla's bond and private stock offerings have always sold out very quickly, and I think have always been oversubscribed, regardless of what analysts were predicting at the time.

I swear, it seems that constantly predicting Tesla's financial collapse -- no matter how well or poorly Tesla is doing during any given week -- has become an industry of its own.

 

No problem at all @Pushmi-Pullyu. I read that on a Tesla blog and evidently the poster (nor I) was not aware that the software would limit the supercharging rate on repeated charges in one trip. It’s surely a bigger problem with the Leaf’s lack of liquid battery cooling.
One of the best features of this forum is the collective wisdom of so many knowledgeable members such as yourself that keep us all from disseminating erroneous “facts”. Keep up the good work.

 

I think it's because he refuses to play by the "greed is good" philosophy that Wall Street has run on since the 1980s. His worst "offense" is that Tesla does not pay dividends to stockholders, and has no plans to in the foreseeable future.

Elon Musk certainly doesn't act like a traditional, conservative CEO. Taking a single puff off a doobie which was offered to him by the host of a late-night podcast, is something very unlikely for the CEO of GM or Toyota to do. Yet that seven seconds of Elon taking one single puff of Mary Jane has been endlessly criticized all over the internet ever since. (It's useless to point out the hypocrisy of decrying that, but treating drinking alcohol as perfectly acceptable... despite the fact that smoking marijuana is less mentally debilitating.)

But I don't think we should ignore how Elon's wishful thinking has been bad for Tesla. Elon's attempt to create an "alien dreadnought" factory with touchless automobile production lines run by robots moving at eye-blurring speed was just as much a fantasy as his "financing secured" claim accompanying his plan to take Tesla private.

I think most TSLA investors agree that Elon's positive qualities significantly outweigh his negatite ones as CEO (and pretty much as sole autocrat) of Tesla. With very nearly anyone else in control, Tesla would likely have gone bankrupt years ago, or at best would be a small boutique auto maker aspiring to someday grow to the size of Porsche. And not the undisputed EV industry-leading auto maker aspiring to grow to the size of GM or Toyota!

But as Tesla continues to grow in size, Elon's habit of micromanaging everything, and making every important decision himself, is an increasingly poor fit to Tesla. One person can personally oversee only so much, and Tesla is already far too large for that. One pretty clear symptom is the complete failure of the automated battery pack assembly lines at Gigafactory 1. It wasn't until after the Model 3 was officially in production that Elon went to the Gigafactory to diagnose what exactly was wrong there, and make plans to correct the situation! That entire project should have been delegated to someone with both the ability and authority to deal with problems as they cropped up... rather than what appears to have happened, which is that the magnitude of the failure was either hidden from, or denied by, upper management for far longer than it should have, and nothing useful was done to actually correct the problem for months, while Elon was busy doing other things.

Just my opinion, but I think either Elon needs to delegate a lot of authority to other senior Tesla executives, or else he needs to step down from the CEO position, and remain as investor relations manager and as an "idea guy" suggesting new designs and new Tesla models. The latter is what he has, upon occasion, said is what he really wants to do.

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You make some valid points. And I think one of Musk's failings is his inordinate confidence in any and all AI, of which I do not think he has a deep understanding. But, I was referring to for instance his presentation at the Y event. Many superficial gestures resembling minor tourette syndrome, all insignificant for those of us who do not judge a person by superficial appearances. And, apparently were also present in Mozart. (And I loved the reference to Kazakhstan).

 

I guess I didn't explain that well enough. The limit isn't on the number of Supercharger sessions per trip, but on the total number of DC fast charge sessions over the lifetime of an individual Model S or Model Y car. But this limit should only affect those with an unusually high usage of DC fast chargers. Most owners are going to use L2 or L2 slow charging for most of their daily charging needs, and that's what Tesla cars are designed for.

Let me quote from an Electrek article:

"Tesla explains why it limits Supercharging speed after high numbers of DC charges"

We learned this week that the automaker is also limiting the charging rate when Supercharging on vehicles that have accumulated too many DC fast-charge events. Electrek reached out to Tesla to get the official reason behind the change.

Some Tesla owners have been complaining about a slower than usual charge rate at Superchargers on forums and social media for a while now. [...]

The issue came back into focus this week after a Tesla owner returned from a road trip where he used several different Superchargers and couldn’t get a charge rate above 90 kW even though the top charge rate is officially 120 kW. [...]

According to Tesla engineers, once vehicle has been DC fast charged over a specified amount, the battery management system restricts DC charging to prevent degradation of the battery pack. According to Tesla engineers, this vehicle has seen significant DC fast charging and is now has permanently restricted DC charging speeds. Important to note, supercharging will always still be available to the vehicle and the battery pack has not yet experienced significant degradation due to the amount of DC fast charging performed on the pack up until this point in time.​

(See the full article for details.)

Enough Tesla owners were upset at this imposed limitation (which is intended to prevent damage to the battery pack from what Tesla apparently regards as over-use of DC charging) that they sued Tesla to get it removed. I'm unclear as to the outcome of that lawsuit.

* * * * *

Please note this does not affect the Model 3/ Model Y battery packs, which have a very different pack architecture and also use different battery cells. As recently demonstrated, the Model 3 is capable of charging at a higher power level (and therefore faster) than Model S/X packs are.

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FYI BMW is now showing their first four PHEVs on their website. Hard to find info on actual release dates and range.

https://www.bmwusa.com/vehicles/iperformance.html?cid=4_5_series_social-fb&tier=tier2&maco=national&ch=paid_social&veh=5series&fbclid=IwAR0hw4Su7T6m9tZOZ-q1I2MyAjUuj4Q5Og_PtlRT9DysgeJs-kMLMwdyV-E

 

Is that the first time you've seen Elon talk during a Tesla publicity event? Well, he has a rather noticeable speech impediment that is most often described as a "stutter". He always talks that way when he's under the spotlight.

I guess a lot of people find his speech impediment quite irritating, based on a lot of comments I've read. Doesn't really bother me much, personally; I'd far rather hear someone talk about a subject which he knows well and is enthusiastic about, rather than a professional presenter who can talk smoothly but is just delivering a prepared speech written by somebody else. Obviously many others disagree.

But that's not why a lot of people, including myself, say that the Model Y "Reveal event" was underwhelming and thus disappointing. Elon didn't seem that interested in actually talking about the Model Y; he spent only a very few minutes on it, and didn't even specify that it has the hatchback which many wanted (but didn't get) on the Model 3. He also didn't address the question of towing, which the Model Y will very probably get.

Mind you, I don't think the Model Y itself is at all disappointing! I think it looks better, "sharper" and more stylish, than the Model 3, and I think it will become a better seller than even the Model 3.



It's just the way it was presented that has caused disappointment. As if Elon didn't care much about the car.

But that may not be an accident; it may have been quite intentional. Perhaps Tesla doesn't want people to get very
excited about a car that won't be available for a year and a half (or even longer, if it's delayed). Tesla would much rather sell you a Model 3 today than get a deposit for a Model Y to be sold a couple of years from now!

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Yes - you are correct and I was wrong. Thanks for pointing this out - I discovered my mistake yesterday, but forgot to come here to make the correction.

 

To be fair, I think Tesla was talking about the future potential of the V3 Supercharger - not its use in the current Model 3, which is NOT optimised to make use of it. The chart here is of the M3.

That said, you are right about the hyperbole - nobody knows if any future BEV is going to be able to charge at 1000 miles/hour for a full hour of charging on ANY Supercharger, whether that is V3 or V4 or V26.