Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

Thanks:

A couple of questions:

• Wards - Used by Autoline Daily, I've seen their Prius numbers look off when compared to Toyota reported Prius numbers. I was under the impression they use Polk for numbers derived from vehicle registrations. Just I don't trust them ... you?
• GoodCarBadCar - nice web site but I have little experience with their numbers. You?

In the past, I've used the monthly Dashboard reports from Hybridcars.com. However, there appears to be a problem as they stopped publishing them. I've been thinking about using GoodCarBadCar to fill the gap. Thoughts?

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

 

Hybridcars.com used to get their numbers from a market research firm. In the past they were fairly accurate.

From what I understand, recently there were a number of changes in ownership of the site and in the writing staff. I'm not sure what exactly occurred, but recently they've been taking longer and longer to post their numbers. It was pointed out to us that they were starting to use some of our EV estimates. Then just stopped posting. I'm guessing their partnership with that market research firm ended.

GoodCarBadCar has been mostly good in my limited experience. Most of their numbers come directly from automakers. A few some of them are estimated and I think they should note it as such but they do not. They use our Tesla estimates. When looking at their monthly sales rankings, keep in mind that GM is obviously not counted. But otherwise they're fine. More likely to be right than wrong.

I don't believe Wards provides their numbers to the public (unless that changed recently). So I honestly couldn't tell you for sure how accurate they are.

 

I calculated and scheduled/posted my numbers before Tesla numbers came out. While I was already at work for my day job, I received notice from the other writers that Tesla had released their numbers several days earlier than we expected. So while at work, I updated the article.

Despite a large number of Tesla fans being upset that we released a number they didn't like, telling us "oh, you're wrong, 5,000+ Model 3s were sold in Canada at least!" and what have you, we now have access to Canadian numbers from Q2 and our quarterly numbers were very close.

However, because of the related 200k discussion... we decided not to update the chart. And things got quite insane! Tesla would not respond to us or any other site for weeks regarding the issue. And the IRS would not respond to anyone for clarity on their rules.

Of course the good news for Tesla fans was... either our long term historical estimates were off (by about 2 weeks of production) or IRS has some strange ways they calculated for the tax rebate. We lean toward the latter since we found that Ford IRS numbers seem to lag a month or two behind the sales data Ford reports to IEVs. But we still don't know which. You can view the entire crazy episode here, including updates after the fact from 7/2, 7/8 and 7/12. :

https://insideevs.com/why-we-believe-tesla-passed-200k-u-s-sales-in-june/

We knew Tesla would be between 2,000 and 3,000 in Canada. We don't generally track Canada but I pegged them at about 2,250 based on the limited data I had on Canada.

Following the release of Canadian data at ~2,750 registrations we made our final update to the sales chart, revising our U.S. estimates down ~500 units. These are the numbers you can see in our sales chart currently. The original Q2 estimates are available at the link above. Our monthly sales report notes all historical updates we have made to sales data.

We will post our initial estimates for Tesla this quarter as well before Tesla releases theirs. Again, impossible for us to be 100% accurate. We just want to provide the best estimates available.

 

I see a lot of good posts on the reasons for the very low production indicated on the Bloomberg Tracker. I don't believe the conspiracy theories about Elon deliberately messing with the data. I believe Tom Randall correctly identifies the production gaps as the reason the graphs got out of whack, but did not adjust correctly. My theory is that these number gaps are AWD versions and Tesla grossly underestimated demand for the AWD version. They simply did not have enough front wheel drive motors to fulfill the demand, so they skipped these and built more RWD versions. Bloomberg's tracker assumes that these skipped VINs were built and falsely stated production exceeded 6000, but instead of going back and correcting the earlier production figures, he is now compensating with low current production values to bring the average back in line. I believe Tesla has now scaled up the front motor drive production and is filling this gap in VINs now as fast as they can. However since the Bloomberg Tracker shows these as already built, it doesn't count them now. Tesla has registered 59866 Model 3 VINs since July 1 and I believe the gap is being filled now so I expect most of these to be built by the end of the month. My prediction is that we will see 60k+ for the quarter.

 

At the end of every quarter, Tesla sales reps to try to sell off as many of their demos and service loaners as possible. Perhaps they are making even more of an effort than usual this quarter, since it's now so important for Tesla to demonstrate that it can be consistently profitable, starting this quarter and going forward. But doing this type of sales outreach calling at the end of a quarter is normal procedure for Tesla. It's sadly predictable that "TeslaInvestors" would try to portray this as somehow being a bad thing, since he does the same with everything Tesla does.

For readers interesting in looking beyond the repetitive and worn-out Tesla bashing here, you might be interested in this article about everything Tesla is doing to maximize sales and revenue (including selling used cars in China) this quarter:

"Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza"

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

 

I don't think so. I've seen it said that Bloomberg makes no attempt to correct its previous estimates; it just under- or over-estimates current production in an attempt to compensate for previous over- or under-estimations.

And that's exactly what Roy_H said. You continue to give us reasons to believe that whenever you disagree with anyone regarding anything related to Tesla, "TeslaInvestors", that they will be right and you very nearly always wrong.

 

I am coming to a similar conclusion:

Omission of key elements in citations and using dodgy sources marginalizes postings. When the signal-to-noise ratio begins to interfere with accurate communications, there comes a time to 'turn up the squelch' and filter out the static. I'm close but not there yet.

Q3 ends in 7 days and credible reports in 8 days. By November 1, we should have the Q3 financials and a better understanding of the Tesla trials and tribulations. There will be projections for Q4 but I don't do quarter-by-quarter investing.

My current 401k has conservative holdings. Come January, I can draw another tranche to diversify into metals and round out my Tesla holdings.

Bob Wilson

 

Amazingly enough, deliberately choosing perverse interpretations of nearly all facts and figures about Tesla's production and sales -- as well as treating Bloomberg's production estimations (repeatedly shown to be far from accurate) as Gospel -- have lead to irrational conclusions on your part.

Who could have guessed that would happen?

 

I have to correct myself here. I took a closer look at Bloomberg's so-called Model 3 production "tracker" website (again, it's only an estimator, not actually a tracker), and I do see some notes there that they did correct a few of their earlier data points. Mea culpa; I was wrong on that point.

Of course, that doesn't help any with the accuracy (or rather, inaccuracy) of their current estimations!

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The only information any rational person could glean from your repetative -- indeed, apparently obsessive -- posts on this subject is that Bloomberg's production estimator is getting further and further away from reality.

Yet another missive from Earth-2.

Here on Earth-1, Tesla is once again in the middle of an end-of-quarter push to deliver as many of the cars they have produced as possible, pressing into service volunteer Tesla enthusiasts to help with deliveries, and now even talking about making their own car carrier semi trailers, to deal with a shortage of such trailers!

The only thing in "free fall", TeslaInvestors, is the probability that anyone would believe anything you have to say about Tesla's production or sales.

 

Perhaps the SEC might require a monthly or bi-weekly report of sales and production which appears to be the largest source of FUD. For good measure, initiate a parallel rule requiring everyone to open source, comply.

Bob Wilson

 

My expectation is we'll see the first metrics Monday morning.

Bob Wilson