Buying Twitter has, in my opinion, really shown us just how naked this Emporer is. I've known he's pretty ruthless inside his companies, so I'd never consider working for him, but I thought at least he's smart about business. Watching him overpay for Twitter and then make misstep after misstep says to me the Tesla board should find a different CEO. Between the blatant bigotry and his weaponizing of Twitter as a hate machine, I don't think he's a man anyone should listen to or work for. Unfortunately, neither the board nor investors care about that unless it affects them personally, so we're all stuck with him for a while. I'm nowhere near as confident in Tesla's future as I once was. I don't think it's going under or anything close to that, but it seems unlikely to be the overwhelming success I once thought it could be.
For the record, much as I loathe Musk, I do not expect Tesla to immediately collapse. They got several things right early, including the charger network and quick expansion of production capacity, that gave them a massive head start. The legacy carmakers and other EV startups are playing catch-up, and will be for a while. If things go reasonably smoothly as GM, Ford, VW and others build up production capacity and broaden their model lineups, Tesla's market share will continue to erode, but it won't immediately collapse. But I truly do not believe a company led by Elon Musk can survive in the long haul. He may have flashes of brilliance, but he's not disciplined or stable enough to keep a company successful over a long time period. I'd bet money that within 5 years one of three things happens: Elon's departure, bankruptcy, or sale to another automaker at a fraction of the current share price.
I didn't have any spare cash to buy TSLA when it was down earlier this year. I'm planning to pickup some cheap shares during the 'fire sale.' About Twitter, I tried three months of $8/month membership which was as useless as the pre-Elon version. Pre-Elon, I only accessed Twitter after completing my Facebook catch up. Twitter should be called <CRICKETS> as far as I'm concerned. Bob Wilson
I have certainly not been a big fan of Elon Musk although always gave him credit for his technical acumen. But have to say recently also have more respect for his business decisions. Musk knows that a recession is coming, and high interest rates may persist for a while resulting in stagflation. That is bad for high end discretionary spending, and in particular the car industry. In the end it is about who survives or comes through this the strongest. His price cuts while bringing down margins, maximizes cash flow which keeps the business growing at near full capacity. It also really hurts the competitors, as they are forced to also lower prices or lose cash flow with less sales. And if their cost structure can't support that, that exasperates their problem. Lower sales means higher fixed costs eventually leading to the fatal business death spiral. It has happened to many once very successful business. Musk is trying to get ahead of the competition in that respect, and if he succeeds Tesla will indeed come out ahead and stronger. The big losers will be Stellantis (already a big loser) and Ford is next and they are already tapping into VW for some of their new coming EVs. Hyundai, VW Group and Toyota will be OK, as like Tesla, they have very deep pockets, and Hyundai has a very good emerging product line. Tesla also needs to upgrade/refresh their product line, and the sneak previews of the new M3 are a good sign. Having said all that, I think the Tesla stock price will move lower, and at some point could become a screaming buy. Big stock traders (Wall Street) are very fickle, and really only care about short term profits. And at this time, some are also trying to drive the stock down now with negative news, so they can buy it cheaper down the road. That's just how the markets work. Anyway will be very interesting to see how all this turns out. Will be a rocky road for sure, and lots of ups and downs.
There is a reason for this: Already implemented in Europe, the multi-vehicle, Tesla SuperChargers: Teslas get lowest charging rate. Non-Tesla cars get a lower charging rate than at non-Tesla chargers. Non-Tesla car owners register with Tesla. So in the USA, the 'magic dock' Tesla SuperChargers will: Have cheapest charge rate for Tesla owners. Non-Tesla drivers will probably see lower charge rates than non-SuperChargers. Non-Tesla drivers, especially smaller stature, will see Tesla plug is smaller and lighter. Non-Tesla drivers will notice they have to hog multiple parking spots. Non-Tesla drivers will see SuperChargers just work versus the others. Non-Tesla drivers will register with Tesla which exposes them to Tesla announcements. Source: You have every reason to "loathe" Elon Musk for practical business reasons. Opening the SuperCharger network becomes a baited hook for the honorable competition. Bob Wilson
Having owned a 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, this is inaccurate: Tesla upgrades and refreshes their cars continuously through out the year. Examples that spring to mind include: Improved brake performance. Heat pumps instead of resistive heaters for longer range. Super bottle became Octo Valve - integrated battery, motor, and cabin HVAC. More powerful, backward compatible, dual-processor, control computer. DC fast charging went from 100 kW peak to 170 kW peak, now 178 kW. De-chrome the exterior. Continuous Autopilot improvements. Continuous Full Self Driving improvements. New owner control interface options. Support for self-maintenance. Switch from 2170 NMC to LiFePO battery chemistry. Replacement of 70 assembled parts in rear and front assemblies with single castings. Seat commonality between Tesla models. Carbon fiber wrapped rotor. Tesla doesn't wait to upgrade their cars but puts the new technology in the assembly line as soon as they pass testing. These changes are often hidden within the sheet metal exterior. Bob Wilson
It's going to be a good day for the short sellers. We could see Tesla stock selling below the 100 dollar level this year. Elon's going to need to pull a full self-driving rabbit out of his hat to stop that from happening.
Maybe he needs to get his feet back on the ground. Robots sound like fun, but shouldn't bet the company on that.
That's what I admire about Elon. He's a risk taker. Is there another large American manufacturing CEO willing to take that kind of risk?
Yes, that is one of the things I like about him. But he needs to focus more again on the Tesla cars, so they don't fall behind the competition. They need the new platform gen ASAP, and it had better be good. And avoid duds like the Cybertruck.
FSD V12 is slowly being released in the wild. Is this going to be the magic that Elon needs to keep the stock above $100?
Nope, that's just for the nerds. Normal people just want a good car that drives well and doesn't risk your life with not fully tested features that you don't need. Most new cars now have level 2 and even that takes a while for most people to fully understand and take advantage of.
Elon has proved himself to be a psycho, and a company controlled by a psycho must ultimately crash and burn -- the question isn't if, but when. I look forward to roasting marshmallows in the eventual bonfire.
That's a big if, and why would it be a game changer? Level 4 is a HUGE step. He has to get level 2 working properly and then get all the bugs out of level 3, which will take a long, long time. And how long has Musk been promising FSD, and still hasn't got past level 2? I think ubers, buses and mass transit will be a better option for those that don't want to drive. And then there are the vast rural areas with their own sometimes unique road challenges. I will be a believer in full autonomous driving when I see a driver less car come to our cabin,...haha.
Finding the stock “dead cat bounce” is always difficult. I’ll wait for $125 to buy more. Or when my tax refund comes in. Bob Wilson
I don't know if they can get to work with the current hardware either. But just look at the number of folks working for ride sharing and the amount of money being spent, now put those numbers on steroids, and it becomes a game changing money maker. Rural locations are not the market for FSD.
