Tesla Dealer lot OVERFLOWING????

I think they are called "stealerships" I may have coined this word in one of my previous lives

But seriously, these Tesla parking lots and rented lots are overflowing with Model 3s everywhere. Now the 2 year lease returns are coming back in Q3. They are probably getting a Model 3 while returning the cheap 2 year leases that Tesla promoted back in 2016. It's going to get worse.

I just took a look at Ebay, and the used Model s prices are the lowest I ever saw. Very few watchers too. I've not heard Elon or his mouthpiece Fred brag about the used Tesla prices for a while. Something may not be a positive anymore.

But thanks for the video. 420 is Elon's favorite made up number. Privatization at $420, 420k reservations, 420 use when with Grimes..

 

I listed completed sales where the seller and buyer agreed on the price. At a minimum, they should be at least $7,500 lower since there is no Federal Tax Credit and even more if there were other incentives. Ebay completed sales:

• $145,000 - 2016 Model S P100D, 19,200 mi
• $125,000 - 2017 Model X, 14,500 mi
• $118,000 - 2017 Model X P100D, 12,700 mi
• $114,444 - 2017 Model X P100D, 9,746 mi
• $103,950 - 2016 Model X P90D, 15,670 mi (* relisted)
• $100,400 - 2016 Model S P100D, 15,000 mi (best offer)
• $99,999 - 2016 Model S P100D, 25,060 mi (best offer)
• $88,900 - 2016 Model X, 15,966 mi
• $85,200 - 2016 Model X, 26,906 mi
• $85,100 - 2016 Model X, 15,700 mi
• $84,998 - 2016 Model S P90D, 10,561 mi
• $81,500 - 2017 Model S 90D, 7,500 mi
• $80,900 - 2016 Model S P90D, 17,767 mi
• . . .

Given the arrival of the Model 3, ~$57,000, in substantial numbers, the prices of used Teslas should soften. But if you want a larger, more luxurious Tesla, the X/S are the only option shipping in quantity. So how does this compare if you don't have a pre-Model 3 sample?

In May 2016 I bought an end-of-lease, 2014 BMW i3-REx:

• Monroney sticker $53,000, 0 miles
• Used price, $29,000, 6,330 miles, 55% of the original price

My BMW example suggests the listed Tesla, new prices should have been nearly twice their Ebay completed price. Instead, it looks like the Tesla are much slower depreciating than what my BMW i3-REx went through.

Bob Wilson

 

So I revisited eBay, Tesla completed listings and was able to make this chart:

If there is any softness, it is transparent to me.

Bob Wilson

 

Talking to a customer rep at Tesla here in Bellevue yesterday prices on the used models are softening, and sales have been slowing, he told me their walk up traffic has been way down the last couple months. Recession coming? Home starts, car sales, pending home sales, all slowing a bit... Aug to Sep will be interesting...

 

Percent wise, lower priced cars will appear to have depreciated faster. But if you add back the fixed rebates ($1000 in CA), then the depreciation of lower priced cars like BMW i3 rex will look very different. The immediate depreciation due to the rebated and FTC have lower impact on higher priced Teslas.

BTW, looks like you sorted by the highest sale prices. Plus, you don't know when those sales were completed. If your data set includes all sales to date, then that doesn't really tell the trend.
I've been stuck playing with the bidding stuff on some teslas. Fortunately, my bids were always below the reserve price, and never in 5 digits

 

I have to admit that you do a good job of plotting and charting the data! It seems to me that you have a lot of free time at hand
Even though I often disagree with your conclusions, my hats off to your charting skills
But in this chart, I can't understand why so many low mileage cars ( < 4k miles) were sold at around $50k.
And it clearly shows that your previously quoted price of $145k is an anomaly, not the norm.

Edit: OK, I think you may have included all Teslas in your chart. So the new Model 3 with low miles selling around $5k kind of distorted your plot. I was talking about Model S & X. Particularly Model S, as now there is a growing supply of Model S, adn the Model 3 is too close to Model S.

 

Those cheap Model 3 are actually people selling their reservation. My understanding is a reservation is not transferable. So they offer to let someone configure the car and then pre-pay for it. In effect the reservation holder is a shadow purchaser. Personally sound dodgy to me.

Let me share the technique used for the chart:

• configure the web page so it has the data you want - in this case, completed sales with the largest number of entries.
• select the web page data and "copy"
• open a spreadsheet and "paste special" the unformatted text
• use normal spreadsheet functions to parse and extract the fields of interest
• "copy" and "paste special" into a second spreadsheet
• tweak the data until you can plot it in a form that addresses your questions

If you are interested, I can zip the spreadsheet and post with the zip file as an attachment. As for time, I've been retired since May 2016.

Bob Wilson

 

I've added plots by year:

• eBay sells "salvage title" cars that are often significantly cheaper
• some salvage titles are "parts" cars
• we are dealing with small sample sets from one snapshot in time
• making plots by models is technically challenging because of the variants
• OpenOffice spreadsheet, zipped, attached

Bob Wilson

 

Thanks much for the excel sheet. I downloaded it. Yes, agree with your observations.
But noticed they are missing the miles for most (column D). Without the date of sale, we are left with having to run this periodically and see if the trend changes.

The difficulty to do anything scientific with this dataset is that Tesls has way too many variants, created by tweaking battery sizes, or "better" seats or AP, etc. etc. It's a big fudge. If we don't compare the same models, then it's difficult to gauge the change.

 

The chart is useful for figuring out the fair market price for used cars. I'm not a fan of Kelly Blue Book. So I would look at the 2013 and 2014 model years in the 60-70,000 mile range.

Bob Wilson

 

I don't see how that makes any sense at all. Since the reservation isn't transferable, the purchase has to be in the name of the person making the reservation.

Unless... hmmm. It just occurred to me that registering the vehicle with the State is a separate process from purchasing. If the paperwork for those two processes can be entirely separated... then perhaps it could work. But if not, what that means is that for legal purposes, the reservation holder is the original purchaser, and the person it's being transferred is buying what is legally considered a used car. That means the person it's transferred to isn't provided with any legal protections that new car owners get (such as lemon law protection). Neither can he any federal or State tax incentives... and neither can the original purchaser, since such tax incentives clearly state the car can't be transferred within 12 months of the original sale. (Or at least, that's what I've seen reported in discussions of the issue.)

I also wonder what Tesla's policy is towards those transferred vehicles, regarding service and OTA updates. Will the VINs for such vehicles be blacklisted by Tesla, given that this is a clear violation of the terms of service for reservation holders? Or does Tesla not track such things?

Inquiring minds want to know!

​

 

Shout out to Bob:

Thank you for taking the time and trouble to create these charts and post them here for discussion!

 

Look at this! Going for less than 50% value with just 9k miles, still 0 bids! So the owner lost $60k to drive just 9k miles? What a ****.
No, this is not salvage. Most listings have 0 bids.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Model-S-P85/253830555229

 

Still to rich for my taste. I'm more of a $30k car guy although I might go to $40k. I wonder, divorce settlement sale?

I prefer to track actual sales since both the seller and buyer have come to terms. Bids doesn't hold a lot of credibility.

Bob Wilson

 

I looked at this item and the auction is closed as the reserve price was not met. The starting price on ebay is no indicator of the minimum price for which it will be sold, if there is a reserve price. So the fact someone advertised a Tesla for $57,000 on ebay does mean that they will sell it to the highest bidder. They are required to sell it only if the highest bidder bids more than the reserve price, and the reserve price is not disclosed to bidders. The reserve price may have been $80,000 for all we know. No one bothered to test the reserve price as most bidders know that reserve price will be much higher and that a teaser starting bid may not be worth wasting your time on. So I am not going to jump to the conclusion that there is an exodus out of Tesla based on a starting bid price on ebay.

There is another 2014 one on ebay with 53,000 miles with starting bid of $32,300 with a reserve. However, there is a buy it now price of US $45,588.00. So that dealer expects to get about $45,588 for that car which has a lot more miles (https://www.ebay.com/itm/Tesla-Model-S-P85-4dr-Liftback-/372422467239?oid=253830555229)
Here is the screen shot for the one one cited by Tesla Investors showing that there is a reserve price on it.

 

Yes, but there are 0 bids even on $57k, meaning no one was interested at that price. Look at the ones where bids are placed. Much lower usually. Highest bid placed is what people are willing to pay.
That P85+ will be lucky to be sold for $57k. These are historical cars now. Model 3 is the new fad

OK, check this. It is 2015 (more warranty left) and buy it now is $63k. Still no offers. This even has a "paranomic sunroof", which must be something unique.
This sets an upper limit on how much it can sell for. Almost $2 a mile in depreciation. Tell that to Elon Musk when he tweets how electric cars save you money
https://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-Tesla-Model-S-P85D/223127802911

 

No, the real metric are completed sales where the buyer and seller agreed on the price. Anything else is useless.

Bob Wilson

 

Another Tesla bashing post you copied off Reeking Alpha, hmmm, "Tesla(Short)Investors"?

I don't know what if anything you are trying to suggest that "proves". Ebay is not a good place to buy automobiles, and most serious buyers won't even be looking there. That goes double for Tesla cars. Tesla has a well supported CPO program; why wouldn't the seller sell it back to Tesla?

But even ebay offers used vehicle inspection services and escrow sales... neither of which is being offered in advance by this seller. Those are more red flags which would cause any knowledgeable car buyer to avoid this sale.

Quite possibly there is a serious problem with the car which the seller isn't disclosing.

​

 

Your sentences are contradicting each other! Lots of expensive cars are sold on Ebay. Check Texas direct sales numbers. Even Tesla dumps their CPOs there when they need quick cash.

BTW, Tesla CPO is way worse than buying from private party.