Speculation on Tesla sales in Q2 2019

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, May 18, 2019.

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What will Tesla sales be in Q2 2019?

Poll closed Jun 29, 2019.
  1. <30,600

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 30,601-34,200

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 34,201-37,800 :: 3*12,000 = 36,00 April sales projection

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 37,801-41,400

    1 vote(s)
    50.0%
  5. >41,401

    1 vote(s)
    50.0%
  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    It is always fun to post a poll and let the usual suspects vote their opinion and justification. I've arranged it with buckets with the center being a straight-line projection of the April numbers +/- 5%; then the next pair +/- 10, and; final pair > 15%. I'm using 12,000 for April to keep the math simple.

    Enjoy.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My guess is the April numbers reflected the overseas shipping queue finally getting filled and sales in other countries. I'm also optimistic about process improvements that improve the margins.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Bob, have you been smoking something illegal in your state? You are asking what will Tesla sales be in Q2, but then you mention overseas channel fill being achieved, but it appears your numbers are only for the USA? Your poll question should be "what will Tesla USA sales be in Q2 2019"? to which I would answer they darn well better be greater than 41K or Tesla is in Deep Doo Doo (I know how many ships have left SF pier 80, so far this qtr, and what was on them). I think USA sales are doing Ok for Model 3, and S and X have seen a slight uptick with discounts, however the new efficiency model S and X are not being delivered yet.

    TSLA Stock looks like it is going to get hammered again today... Another new 52 week low on the opening it looks like. Oh No, Watch out Below.... Elon's margin call should be kicking in any time now, as the way I understand it, he has no cash to postpone the banks liquidation of his shares per his personal loan covenants. I can imagine Elon has been burning up phone lines this weekend looking for cash, would he take Tesla cash, to re-balance his personal loans? That would be a whole new level of fraud, but you never know what level Elon will stoop to... After-all he did raise cash on robotaxi BS just weeks before he knew the NTSB was going to release preliminary info on another A/P fatality.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I'm after the total number Tesla reports the first week of Q3. I don't care how they are shaved as much as a clear and unambiguous, quotable figure.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Tesla reports worldwide sales in the advisory letter, I think the deliveries will be around 45K-60K Model 3, and 10-15K S and X, I need a wide range at this point but will narrow my estimate as the end of 2Q gets nearer. 55-75K are my guess for now, the top of my estimate is a 20% MISS on Elon Musk's lower guidance of 90-100K deliveries in Q2 given 3 weeks ago.

    Model 3 is starting the Qtr Very weak in Norway having only about 1K sales so far. Model S and X Q2 Norway- Netherlands are almost non existent, getting hammered by E-Tron and I-Pace so far in Q2
     
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I'm OK with this as I felt the 5-bucket poll was more narrow than I'd prefer. Is there another range of poll buckets you would prefer?

    The reason I chose for these 5-buckets was to provide large, gross margins. The only alternative might have been to split the middle bucket into an optimistic and pessimistic pair.

    Bob Wilson
     

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