Only 5 auto makers left in a few years?

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, May 17, 2020.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    In cell phones the smart phone left us with 5 makers. Apple, Google, Samsung, LG, Huiwei

    It wasn't just CV that is hitting legacy makers. Former standard bearer the BMW 3 series now depreciates at a rate of about 40% in the first year and that may be being charitable. A Model 3 is 5% depreciation. The world just doesn't want ICE vehicles and more and that was the case before CV. Just like they dropped long distance land lines they are dropping ICE

    We've heard Tesla say it can't do it all by itself. I don't think that is true anymore. I think it can and should take the majority of the world's market share for vehicles. It is not just the collapse of ICE and fossil fuels. It is also that million mile autonomous vehicles will reduce the need for vehicles by 10x-20x. Tesla might be able to capture most of the world's market by selling 5-10 million vehicles a year.

    Just as in cell phones I see only 5 suppliers surviving. Tesla, Toyota, VW, Hyundai, and a Chinese make like BYD (or Great Wall or Xpeng.) The same thing will happen in big rigs and I think again Tesla will be the largest supplier of tractors. I'd also say that Tesla may be the only make with substantial share in every market. It will be more successful than soon to be gone GM ever was. The switch from Giga to Terra is all that was needed. 650K pre-orders for the Cybertruck- I don't see the F150 surviving. There could be a 6th maker Amazon but I think its stuff will be for internal consumption.

    I see VW swallowing Daimler and BMW. I see Toyota swallowing Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi and Subaru. I don't think Ford, FCA, GM, Renault, Peugeot, Tata etc make it. They go the way of RCA, Zenith, Nokia. I don't think Ferrari or Lotus have an easy time either. I expect Tesla to utterly destroy them- they have nothing to offer relative to Tesla. Ferrari was supposedly doing well but it either transitions to pure electric immediately or it dies and it may still get swallowed by say VW.

    Except for the Chinese, legacy ICE even beyond its sunk cost and albatross dealer is going to find 4 things that sink it against a competitor like Tesla. They will find they can't do the mechanical as well (Munro was seeing that) and they can't do the electrical as well and they can't do software as well and they don't sell energy or all the cord cutting money save green life style pieces from home HVAC to solar panels to batteries. But they will also find they can't do continuous improvement (like Tesla does) they simply can't keep up they also lack the holistic expertise from optimizing for designed and built elsewhere and a habit of rummaging through generic parts bins. They also lack a real mission statement, they don' t have a reason for being except for making ROI or rents for people who have almost nothing to do with their companies and don't care about them except as a means to extract money. And for all these reasons they will also find they can't attract talent because their vision doesn't extend beyond survival and me too and they have negative good will from being legacy ICE makers. People are going to notice the clean air and blame their products rightly. And where they lack ambition they also lack a global legion of fans. People who buy Tesla products also buy Tesla shares- Teslas customers own it and that is a virtuous feedback loop? Thankfully the automotive press ICE legacy built around them will collapse too. Motor Trend will survive but the others have done too much paid lying to survive the collapse of the sponsors that paid them to lie.
     
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