Model 3 production ramping up

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Rex B, Jan 3, 2018.

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  1. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Yep, done with owners. The elusive ramp up is still not here, but all owners are done! What a big surprise.
    It's becoming very obvious that there aren't that many reservations to fill.
    If Tesla opens up for non owners, all will be done within months. Then international will begin, while the ramp continues forever in the 500-1000 cars/week range.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
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  3. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    We don't know the exact number of current sales, but it is probably somewhere between 165k and 170k. Inside EVs estimates through this January are 163k. Other sources think the number is higher. So I'll meet in the middle and say Tesla has an available 35,000 sales before they hit 200,000 in the US.

    Tesla has said that they will be producing 2500/week by the end of this quarter. And 5000/week by the end of next quarter.

    In order to have any chance of delaying the threshold until Q3, I have to assume some fairly pessimistic US sales numbers for the next 5 months. Production might be higher than the following but these are just example numbers in order to hit Q3 rebate trigger:

    1000/week
    Feb 2018: 4000

    1125/week
    March 2018: 4500

    1500/week
    April 2018: 6000

    1500/week
    May 2018: 7000

    2,000/week
    June 2018: 8,000

    Total Model 3 sales for Feb-June 2018: 29,500

    As you can see, these numbers I've thrown out there are less than half production targets. Roughly 2,000/week production in May assuming the current 3-5 weeks from configure to delivery continues. If the "delay until Q3" theory holds true, production would then rise quickly in June for delivery in July.

    There are basically 2 ways they could hit these numbers:
    - Production continues to be much lower than they are shooting for.
    - A significant portion of Model 3 production is sent into Canada and other markets starting in Q2.

    Of course, even at the relatively low production numbers above, they would still hit ~30,000 units. So:
    - Canadian/European sales of the Model 3 would need to begin very soon, and would need to soak up 40-50% of deliveries. Canadian deliveries on their own wouldn't offset sales enough. And S/X deliveries in the US would need to drop by at least 40%. Canadian delivery estimates have indeed moved up to Mid-2018. But only for the LR version I believe. And that isn't soon enough to really help.
    - Assuming all Model 3 deliveries are for the US only, Model S and X would basically need to ship less than 6,000 units combined in the US over 5 months. It's possible, but that would be off about 70% from last year.

    You're right that it is technically possible. If they're going to do it, they need to actually announce they are doing so. I hope they do for the sake of myself and others wanting the Short Range Model 3. But that would be 5 months of much lower deliveries for S, X and 3 in the US than expected. I'm not sure it's the right move for Tesla financially or PR wise.

    They're kind of in between a rock and hard place here for US deliveries. Do they further delay production? Stop fulfilling Model S/X orders? Start to ship the high end model 3 overseas? No matter the tactic, they're gonna piss off someone, somewhere lol. They want to avoid pissing off their current customers and those looking to max out the vehicle with options. Better to piss off those buying the less profitable, lower end model. Since that model was priced to be competitive even without tax breaks anyways.

    They also probably hope they'll convince some future SR owners to go for the LR model. LR with the full tax rebate wouldn't be much more than the SR without the tax rebate.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
  4. Yeah, I know they say they are anti-selling the 3, and they are, certainly, pushing the S a bit more.
    To be honest, I can't remember what was going through my mind when I said that, but for sure, it isn't like they are not entertaining 3 buyers. They are still taking reservations and it's still listed for sale on the website. They are certainly quite happy to crow about any awards it receives, or tweet out positive reviews (as they should).

    Maybe I'm just taking the expression "anti-sell" too literally.
     
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  5. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    When my wife and I went in to test drive the Model S in the spring last year, we let the attendant know we were interested in the Model 3. My wife wanted to check out a Tesla before she put down $1,000. She had sat in a Model S before but never driven one. Needless to say she was blown away.

    After the test drive he walked us through how the ordering process works in Texas. He let us know that since we weren't first day reservation holders, it could be a while before we got our Model 3. He gently nudged us towards a Pre-Owned Model S or new low end Model S explaining the benefits of the S over the 3.

    A new Model S was out of the question on our combined income. At the time, there were a few PO Model S in a price range we considered comfortable (~$40). But those didn't have leather seats, ACC or autopilot. And the cars all had 50 or 60k miles on them. And since they were used, no tax-rebate. Plus our Volt wasn't going to be paid off until 2018 anyways.

    Once we explained this to him, he helped my wife set up an account with Tesla so she could place a reservation. But he tried the Model S angle first. I don't know if that's anti-selling or not. Maybe I'd call it more up-selling? Oh well, Potayto-Potahto. ;) They probably mean the same thing in this case. Still, the fact that he was so pleasant about it and not pushy at all made the interaction feel more like he was trying to get the right car for us instead of pushing us into a car we can't afford. Big difference from the experience of a usual car dealer!
     
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  6. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, I see what you're saying, and maybe that's what Domenick meant altho he has forgotten what he was thinking at the time.

    As you say, it's more correct here to say "upsell in favor of the Model S" than actually "anti-sell" the Model 3.

    What would actual anti-selling look like? Maybe this... ;)

     
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  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Okay, you win... You clearly have more interest in Tesla sales and marketing than I do! :eek:

    But seriously, I appreciate you taking the time and effort to write all that into a coherent and detailed essay. And given everything you said in that essay, it's hard to see how you could be wrong!
     
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  9. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Yes, that is definitely a strong anti-sell! Or like when the Texas Toyota dealers anti-sold me a Rav4 EV and Prius Plug-In by talking about how much of a pain they are and how I don’t want one.

    Their anti-sell worked quite well! I went to the Chevy dealer!

    Damn. I hate when that happens.

    I am in marketing, my wife works at a credit union funding auto loans. We both love EVs so we have lots of time to examine this kind of stuff from multiple perspectives.

    Well, let’s hope there is something we have overlooked. But if Tesla decides to do this, the best approach is to announce it before hand and blame Congress for failing to extend the rebates.

    So just in case, keep an eye out for that! ;)

    4831B057-C33E-4891-8F4A-A2923EFA6CD2.jpeg
     
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  10. As I assume you all know, InsideEVs has to make an educated guess at Tesla deliveries for its monthly plug-in sales scorecard (except, of course for every third month, when Tesla releases its quarterly figures. Now, Bloomberg has launched a Model 3 tracking site that does a similar thing, plus, it's constantly being updated.

    @Steve has written up a detailed look comparing the two methods and their results and its seems we are mostly on the same page. Check it out and let us know what you think.
     
  11. Stano49

    Stano49 New Member

    Tesla is predictable in not meeting their goals, why should anything change? The highest production of a single model car in Q4 was 5,000/month of the MS. Why assume they can ramp up the M3 to even 2,500/ week or (easy math) 10,000/month?


    Sent from my iPad using Inside EVs
     
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  13. They reaffirmed this target during the 4th quarter earnings call, and it's going to look pretty bad for them if they don't. That will affect stock price and, possibly, ability to raise money for new factory(s).
     
  14. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    No. I have never ever seen this movie before.;)
    More likely scenario: Tesla lines up bunch of almost finished cars. then finishes 5 cars in 20 mins, twits the video and claims 2500 a week "extrapolated". Fast forward to compress the 20 min clip into a 1 minute clip. Voila! We'll need a strobe light to see the robot workers (aka human elves super energized with free froyo) doing their acts. Problem solved; face saved; mission accomplished. Twitter and Electrek will explode for Tesla reaching its goal on time for once.

    PS: If need be, write down the unfinished parts and defects on the due bill. Ask customers to bring back the cars for service.
     
  15. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    No, Tesla is predictable in not meeting them *on time* but they absolutely meet them (with rare exceptions for inconsequential things). ;)

    And even then, automakers make goals constantly that they don't meet on time. Hardly unique to Tesla. The rollout of the Ioniq and Outlander PHEV in North America makes the Model 3 look like a resounding success! Cadillac super-cruise was delayed, what, 3 times?

    I have no doubt Tesla can hit 2,500 / week and even over 5,000 / week if demand is there to support it. I just don't know when it's going to happen! But they'll certainly get closer to that 5,000 number this spring than they did last December.
     
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  16. This is a good point. Established automakers regularly miss targets, move back production dates, have quality issues with features from time to time, and we either don't hear about them, or if we do, just shrug it off because it's a pretty normal thing. But Tesla, being under much higher scrutiny (which is fine and understandable), really suffers the slings and arrows from the commentariat.
     
  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Thank you; that makes me feel far less inadequate about my own limited interest in that narrow subject. I prefer to be a generalist rather than a specialist, altho obviously with some exceptions.

    "A Specialist knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing. A Generalist knows less and less about more and more until he knows absolutely nothing about everything." -- anonymous
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
  18. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    It would be terribly unfair to compare Tesla to Volkswagen. Unfair to Volkswagen, that is! I think one InsideEVs news article said the I.D. Buzz had been announced literally a dozen times, and that was a couple of years ago? And it's been announced multiple times since, still without actually going into production!

    But yeah, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is another example of a non-Tesla car that was announced for the North American market, with no follow-through, so many times that I started comparing it with Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
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  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Tesla uses news reports, social networks, and internet "buzz" for free advertising, and has been remarkably successful at that. But the media attention is a two-edged sword; it focuses attention on minor failures just as surely as on successes. To paraphrase an old saying: A company which lives by the media, dies by the media.
    -
     
  20. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I am sometimes amazed at the time and effort that serial Tesla bashers put into creating more and more FUD. All that time and creativity devoted to trying to tear down the reputation of a company which is trying to make the world a better place.

    As they say: A mind is a terrible thing to waste. Even a troll's mind.
    -
     
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  21. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    So... you gotta be getting close to your delivery date, right? :eek: When's the big day? :D
     
  22. jim

    jim Active Member

    Yes I got my VIN yesterday FEB 20, 2018 just arranging to pick it up.
     
    Domenick likes this.
  23. Cool! Are you going to submit your VIN to that Tesla Tracker website? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

    Not suggesting you should or should not, of course. Just curious how you might feel, or just not even care, about it.
     

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