Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Tesla's stock price tomorrow:

 

Was that addressed to me?

You be calm for the both of us, my friend. Me, since I almost never drink alcohol and never to excess, I'll have to satisfy myself with being "drunk" on happiness. Which I certainly am tonight!

 

As part of my celebration of Tesla's report on a wildly successful financial quarter, I'm indulging in reading the comments posted this afternoon and evening at the Tesla Motors Club forum's "TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable" thread.

Here's one I think is worth copying and pasting:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Zaxxon said:

I love that this shareholder letter was clearly written to take apart the naysayer arguments:
-Minimal ZEV credits. Can't say the net income came from ZEV.
-Shows Model 3 the #1 vehicle by revenue
-Calls out stable production despite introduction of AWD and reduction of labor hours. It's tough to get too worked up about missing production goals when the product mix and margin skyrocketed (way past Q3 guidance for margin).
-Nukes the 'parking lot' theory directly
-Calls out the crazy trade-up trend for Model 3, as well as the fact that Europe's market for the 3's vehicle class is > 2X the US's, and that orders are coming in the next two months for Europe/China.
-Directly addresses the vehicle efficiency deficiency of new 'competition' (eg I-Pace).
-Reaffirms guidance for profitability in Q4
-Cash/equiv = $3.5B, and guided to increase significantly in Q4 while paying off $230M in notes during Q4. What was that about March notes?

Other things I like:
-They guide for increased Model 3 production/deliveries, but do not tie themselves to a specific wildly-optimistic number. With such a positive report, I'm glad they didn't include unnecessary poison pills like that.
-Reaffirms that they plan to increase service infrastructure investment in Q4. I was a tiny bit afraid that they were going to keep up with the minimal expansion for another quarter, and I don't think they could afford to do that given the sales volume.

If I had to find a complaint, it's that... Uhh, OK, how about that the solar roof is still clearly not ramping in any significant way. Yeah, that's the ticket. Hang your hat on that, shorty air force.​

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

​

 

Certainly Q3 is great but often USA business focuses on quarter-to-quarter results and fails see the big picture. I read the 2017 Q3, Q4 as well as 2018 Q1, Q2 and saw the arc of Tesla progress. I knew the money being spent was going into manufacturing equipment and the more expensive, personal training and learning. I could also see Elon was not getting trapped by the "Innovator's Dilemma."

I've been and remain a fan of Sandy Munro but I also realize how often 'experts' come in and advise, 'just do business like everyone else and give up all that new fangled stuff.' Experts can be, no usually are, poison to innovation.

Tesla does have a lot of debt but also the means to deal with it. But having been 'house poor,' I can sympathize with modest growth for 90-180 days to reduce or refinance the debt. Tesla has a strong negotiating position as it is hard to justify loaning to traditional car manufacturers. Also, Elon is letting the Chinese invest in his factory which I think is brilliant because it eviscerates the Orange One's tariffs.

So toast Elon and Tesla tonight but with the dawn, we need to see the detailed Q3 report and merge it into the earlier ones.

Bob Wilson

 

Update: I was confused by a quote in Domenick's new article at IEVs news: "Tesla’s China Factory Will Build Model 3 & Model Y"

“[Tesla] won’t be making Model S and Model X, but we’ll be making probably Model 3, probably Model Y primarily for the local Chinese market and it’s really the only way to make the cars affordable in China, but it’s three years out, so.”​

That would indicate production will start in 2021, not 2020.

However, I Googled it, and now I see the quote was from Nov. 2017. Obviously with the new tariffs (just one more thing we can "thank" the Cheeto-in-Chief for), Tesla has a strong motive to accelerate the timeline for producing Model 3's and Model Y's at the Chinese Gigafactory.

So, who knows? Will we see Model 3's -- and possibly Model Y's -- rolling off the assembly line at Gigafactory 3, in Shanghai, in 2019? Or will that have to wait until 2020?



Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

 

The Bloomberg 'talking head' at 6:29 in the video hasn't gotten the memo:

• She lists the 'taking private' and the analysts have to point out this is small change and resolved. Compared to the Orange One, small potatoes.
• But she doesn't give up trying to get someone to join her 'Elon defrauding' nonsense. Again the analysts has to correct her that it is nothing compared to other bad actors.

I don't think she was saying anything on her own as much as reading from a prepared script.

Bob Lutz won't give up on his belief that EV cars are loss leaders that have to be supported by increasing pickup truck prices:

• He doesn't understand batteries worth a darn much less what a purpose-built EV is.

Bob Wilson

 

It does at times seem like most or nearly all so-called "market analysts" are just delivering the talking points that their employers* are paying them to parrot, just like all too many politicians these days (and not just GOP members, either) are merely parroting the "talking points" given to them by their parties.

After all, if someone really had the inside scoop on a company's stock performance, why would they tell the world? They would go out and make that investment themselves, and bask in the satisfaction of having called a market move before it happened!

Am I being overly cynical? Maybe... but I don't think so. Real financial advisers don't give their services away for free on TV or on the internet. Real financial advisors charge for their services.

*The term "employer" here may be either the firm where they are employed, or whoever is paying them a "consulting fee"... or whatever the professional FUDsters call it when they pay someone to regurgitate well-chewed FUD, either in an "article" in the press or as a talking head in a news video.

​

 

Hmmm, Tesla's stock price didn't go up today as much as I expected; only 9.14%. Not quite the rocket taking off that I suggested in a previous post!

Still, I imagine day traders who bought yesterday are happy. An increase of $26.36 in a single day isn't bad!

​

 

Works for me. The final Q3 report has yet to be filled.

Bob Wilson

 

Thanks!

I'm looking forward to the FBI investigation.

Bob Wilson

 

Hey "TeslaInvestors": Do you even know what "FSD" means?

I guess this is what happens when you just parrot the pravduh churned out by others. You have not the slightest idea what you're talking about.

​

 

Me too.

 

So, then... if Tesla lowers the price on one version of its cars, that's not only a bad thing, it's a "scam".

"Wolf, wolf, wolf!" cries the serial Tesla basher. Rather silly and obvious bit of pravduh, there.

 

Well let's start with:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-fbi-conducting-criminal-investigation-191554183.html

Report: FBI conducting criminal investigation into Tesla

Associated Press
The Associated Press
Associated PressOctober 26, 2018

A published report Friday said the FBI is conducting a criminal investigation into whether electric-car maker Tesla misled investors by overstating production forecasts for its Model 3 sedan.

The Wall Street Journal reported that FBI agents have contacted former Tesla employees to interview them. The paper cited anonymous people familiar with the matter.

A Tesla spokesman said the company was transparent about the difficulty of increasing production of the Model 3. He said the company cooperated with a "voluntary request" for documents from the Justice Department earlier this year and has received no additional requests on the matter for months.
. . .​

We heard this tune before:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-lawsuit/tesla-elon-musk-win-dismissal-of-lawsuit-over-model-3-production-idUSKCN1LC26L

Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production

(Reuters) - A federal judge in San Francisco dismissed a securities fraud lawsuit in which Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shareholders accused the electric car company and Chief Executive Elon Musk of misleading them about the progress of production of its Model 3 vehicle.

In a decision made public on Monday, U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer said that while shareholders claimed that Tesla fell short of its production goals, “federal securities laws do not punish companies for failing to achieve their targets.”

Breyer said the shareholders have until Sept. 28 to amend their complaint. Their lawyer, Laurence Rosen, did not respond to a request for comment.
. . .​

Looks like someone is taking a second 'at bat.' After the civil suit failed, someone with legal skills (lawyer Laurence Rosen?) filed a criminal complaint. Until we see any court filings, all we have is FUD.

Bob Wilson

ps. Before the 2016 election, I had subscribed to the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Then I noticed both had problems with facts and data. In particular, they both would 'bury the lead.'

They would publish an article with an inflammatory title and then 3-4 paragraphs later, the title was completely debunked. In the case of the Wall Street Journal, this is classic Murdoch. But the New York Times also has more dirty laundry.

Before the 2016 election, the Times knew Trump's Russia associations were under FBI investigation and remained silent ... unless there was a Hillary Clinton investigation to report. Then there was Judith Miller who became a de facto press secretary to the GW Bush administration.